I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

[Kween 167]

I went from 1036 on Igors list last night to 966 tgis morning...is that good?

[John & Rose 7,239]

Just now, Kween said:

I went from 1036 on Igors list last night to 966 tgis morning...is that good?

It is certainly better than going the other way!!!  Looks like things are moving a little now!

[useful89 692]

6 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

It is certainly better than going the other way!!!  Looks like things are moving a little now!

I'll hold you to that !

[MarksMate 227]

3 hours ago, Naes said:

Goooood Moooorning Everyone!

Your Weekly News is here!

 

I am so sorry for being late with this weekends results,

however GOOD NEWS; especially for June and July filers; 

the numbers are back to normal  for the expected 700+ per weeks.

These numbers doesn't even include October rejections!

 

I am still hoping for June to slowly start next week and go to their peak the following!

 

And obviously as a September I am religiously believing in 150 days!

 

So here are the updated numbers overall! 

 

 

And the weekly activities:

(Remember there are cases without updates!, and october cases that got rejected - these numbers also counted in the USCIS reports)

 

 

And here are the links for each month:

(Please let me know if your case number is not in the list)

 

May

 -for the recent May result please check Shoegum's Up-to-date May list!

June

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0aCNV0zY3I7Y0dUU2szSVV6UUU

July

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0aCNV0zY3I7SGphWmI4blc4ZFU

August

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0aCNV0zY3I7RFlBekpGYUExLWM

September (UPDATED- 76 missing cases )

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0aCNV0zY3I7UkpONjltVzI0bGs 

I've checked June and our number is not in there. Is the list only up to June 12th NOA1? 

[The Squirrel 1,318]

I love you @Naes !!! You are awesome!!! Thank you very much for this !!!

 

 

Just a note, May has 300+ less "virgins" than you show. Can you double check that? 

[The Squirrel 1,318]

16 hours ago, The Squirrel said:

 

yesterday: USCIS approved total 69 - 7 approved on the forum

Forum had more than 10% of the total approved

Total approved yesterday is only 2.4% of the pending grand total

 

Today: USCIS approved total 67 - 8 approved on the forum 

Forum had 12% of the total approved

Total approved yesterday is only 2.4% of the pending grand total

 

Should USCIS numbers run parallel to forum's (as it is a pure percentage "sample") USCIS had:

 

276 approved petitions yesterday 

335 petitions approved today

 

If you read this, and say you don't feel good ....... you should be telling that to your doctor  

 

I thought yesterday we did good, but actually we did more than good, we did great !!! I just checked "Igor's list" and between my post and this morning another 5 members from May have updated their timelines, so the total has swelled to 13 ! Wooooowww ! And to add to that, there is a May 18th case approved, naturally not on our scans, and that is Thursday of that week (and day later Friday has about 80 cases total) 

 

So the totals changed for the better, meaning that the forum members made up 19.4% of the total work "done" by USCIS.

 

yesterday: USCIS approved total 69 - 13 approved forum members

Forum had almost 20% of the total approved (19.4%)

Total approved yesterday and updated by USCIS is only 2.4% of the pending grand total

 

Should USCIS numbers run parallel to forum's (as our forum is a pure percentage "sample") USCIS had:

 

533 approved petitions yesterday  

[DandY 134]

5 hours ago, Naes said:

 

however GOOD NEWS; especially for June and July filers; 

the numbers are back to normal  for the expected 700+ per weeks (sic).

 

<snip>

 

(Remember there are cases without updates!...

I'm curious as to how you arrived at the conclusion "back to normal". It does not seem 700 has been normal for awhile. At this point 700 seems like an anomaly as it has been running <500 per week.

 

Have you done any predictive analysis based upon past months? It seems from past months the pattern is they work about 60-65% of one month before moving to the next month, and about 25% of the petitions wait considerably longer (as a percentage of whole) which drags average wait time up quite a bit. If this pattern is correct, they need to work about 1000 more May cases before touching more than a few June cases. That would be 1.5 - 2 weeks (working 500-700 per week) until they touch June 1 in earnest. Does this concur with your analysis of past performance and if not, what assumptions are you using?

 

As an aside, The Squirrel has commented that 15-25% of the cases don't get timely updates on USCIS. I've been busy at work and have not been able to read through every post, so forgive me if this was explained, but how did you guys determine this. I can see only two ways:

- Extrapolated from reports from VJ users (which means you need about 60 May filers saying this happened to them), or

- You have a way to find actual event date and compare to update date.

Which was done or if neither, what data was used?

[John & Rose 7,239]

6 minutes ago, DandY said:

I'm curious as to how you arrived at the conclusion "back to normal". It does not seem 700 has been normal for awhile. At this point 700 seems like an anomaly as it has been running <500 per week.

 

Have you done any predictive analysis based upon past months? It seems from past months the pattern is they work about 60-65% of one month before moving to the next month, and about 25% of the petitions wait considerably longer (as a percentage of whole) which drags average wait time up quite a bit. If this pattern is correct, they need to work about 1000 more May cases before touching more than a few June cases. That would be 1.5 - 2 weeks (working 500-700 per week) until they touch June 1 in earnest. Does this concur with your analysis of past performance and if not, what assumptions are you using?

 

As an aside, The Squirrel has commented that 15-25% of the cases don't get timely updates on USCIS. I've been busy at work and have not been able to read through every post, so forgive me if this was explained, but how did you guys determine this. I can see only two ways:

- Extrapolated from reports from VJ users (which means you need about 60 May filers saying this happened to them), or

- You have a way to find actual event date and compare to update date.

Which was done or if neither, what data was used?

Welcome back DandY!!!  There is a lot of excitement here lately but we are still talking about 170 days to approval.  Today there was a 169 but most are over 170.  I'm at 148 today.  Moved way up on Igor's List but that is because all of the November 2016 filers have come off.  We lose another 43 December filers on December 1 so we will move that much farther in a month...damn, I hope I'm not looking at Igor's List in a month!!!!  LOL

 

While you were gone there were people who got their first notification 17 days after approval.  Probably an anomaly but it did make for interesting chatter!

 

 

Edited November 1, 2017 by John & Rose

[GarryAndMarie 147]

2 hours ago, MarksMate said:

I've checked June and our number is not in there. Is the list only up to June 12th NOA1? 

I noticed that our number isn't in the June list as well, June 5 NOA1 EDIT: Yes it is, I should have opened the doc on my laptop, for some reason it didn't show up on my phone & skipped several other filings as well - weird

Edited November 1, 2017 by GarryAndMarie
Oops

[John & Rose 7,239]

2 minutes ago, GarryAndMarie said:

I noticed that our number isn't in the June list as well, June 5 NOA1

Did you file in the end of May and receive NOA1 in June?

[GarryAndMarie 147]

16 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

Did you file in the end of May and receive NOA1 in June?

No, I mailed it on June 2 via USPS Express & it was both signed for & NOA1 on June 5. I found it in the spreadsheet after downloading to me laptop, after not finding it with my phone, not sure why it "disappeared" from the spreadsheet on my phone.

[The Squirrel 1,318]

1 hour ago, DandY said:

As an aside, The Squirrel has commented that 15-25% of the cases don't get timely updates on USCIS. I've been busy at work and have not been able to read through every post, so forgive me if this was explained, but how did you guys determine this. I can see only two ways:

 

- Extrapolated from reports from VJ users (which means you need about 60 May filers saying this happened to them), or

- You have a way to find actual event date and compare to update date.

 

Which was done or if neither, what data was used?

 

I can not help myself, but you and @John & Rose use same terminology often, no wonder the love affair . Maybe you should go to Philippines together, John is leaving soon. You can have fun with your "algorithm", make it do some wonderful things all the way to Manila . Anyway, PLEASE TRY TO READ, sometimes at least, because I feel this to be slightly unfair to people that do the work.  

 

Highlighted in red color above, example of 60 you need? Yesterday 12 out of 13 such reports of approvals, and 3 RFE's, and day before 6 out of 7, and 1 RFE. So we have a total of 18 out of 20 approved and 4 RE's, total of 24 in just two days, yesterday and day before. Enough, or I need to go back to find 60 as you seem to think that number is important? I have followed it for weeks, take my word for it.

 

Then you have only 5 of 100 April forum members with open cases, 2 untouched and 3 RFE's. Meanwhile scans would suggest 900+800 open cases.

 

Then you have 5 forum members, 3 with visas already done, and 2 at NVC, all without ever being updated on the website.

 

 

ps  Rest of your questions, or if you have more, I can gladly answer tonight. A little thank you for Naes would be nice  

Edited November 1, 2017 by The Squirrel

[Naes 12,205]

1 hour ago, DandY said:

I'm curious as to how you arrived at the conclusion "back to normal". It does not seem 700 has been normal for awhile. At this point 700 seems like an anomaly as it has been running <500 per week.

 

Have you done any predictive analysis based upon past months? It seems from past months the pattern is they work about 60-65% of one month before moving to the next month, and about 25% of the petitions wait considerably longer (as a percentage of whole) which drags average wait time up quite a bit. If this pattern is correct, they need to work about 1000 more May cases before touching more than a few June cases. That would be 1.5 - 2 weeks (working 500-700 per week) until they touch June 1 in earnest. Does this concur with your analysis of past performance and if not, what assumptions are you using?

 

As an aside, The Squirrel has commented that 15-25% of the cases don't get timely updates on USCIS. I've been busy at work and have not been able to read through every post, so forgive me if this was explained, but how did you guys determine this. I can see only two ways:

- Extrapolated from reports from VJ users (which means you need about 60 May filers saying this happened to them), or

- You have a way to find actual event date and compare to update date.

Which was done or if neither, what data was used?

See, as you realized I didn't answer your last post of half a page.

Having my nickname all over your post, attacking every word I say (even to an analogy?) 

you said things I have never even thought about you, being childish? (your last post before this, in my opinion showed me)

 

These are all valid questions and I will answer all now, but instead of ignoring all the talks being made here, or if you are not following -as nobody has to- you could be doing a productive critism.

But I am hoping you  realize what you are asking right now, is no different than what I asked you.

And you decided not to talk about your assumptions from that point, I assumed these were also questions you forfeited to talk.

 

YES.

predictive analysis is done using data up to 2015, and not relative, as you already know because they changed the trendline with the data from 2017 Q4.

which unfortunately should have been 17000s but most likely will end up around 11000s or less

 

I posted these as a picture before, because I cannot send data from my work computer.

I didn't handwrite here, cause I was extremely sick and couldn't finish entering these data to my personal computer.

 

excuse my terms as I work in Japanese and my terms in English may not be correct

 

from FY15Q1-FY17Q4 data ()

(- means they went over the amount of cases they received. )

*their quarterly trend of approval+denial rates were = or bigger than what they received 

*Pending cases include cases that will never be solved

*Denied cases included rejected cases of the quarter they are working on

 

I'm sorry for the filed not being reversed, it is 5:30 here and I am up to talk to my fiance and I just really don't care

 

Case data from USCIS explaining how they work in numbers

 

Weekly assumptions comes from these numbers as an average against the unfortunate numbers we were seeing,

now in my first post I also put how april most likely flowed when march was around.

and the data showed they started with really small numbers, so I am expecting

(hoping, wishing as I always say we cannot know what they are thinking, how many people are working, what is their work flow etc.)

After having oh so many more people screaming they have no notification whatsoever.. we on an average started to conclude around 15% cases are suffering from this problem,

which we first counted as 5%. hence these calculations were made based on 5%

Possible  outcomes comes with their average approval and denial rates

Weekly and daily assumptions for their past activity and realistic outcome of now w/o the current 15%

 

how they pursued in the past (again - being how much overwork -in this case being the extra numbers ahead of what they received, and how much backlog the + numbers above what they concluded)

 

none of these are completely finish, as I repeat I was sick.

 

What I believe is every body have different skills and means,

Everybody is doing what they can to predict whats going to happen,

Everybody is doing what they can to understand what others are saying,

some optimistic, some pessimistic.

 

Productive Critism I take, but no one would tell their name to someone who cannot first tell their in an introduction. (This is an analogy)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Naes 12,205]

3 hours ago, MarksMate said:

I've checked June and our number is not in there. Is the list only up to June 12th NOA1? 

No it is not supposed to be (I checked and list is full, please try another browser)

however, it can happen, so if you still cannot find your case, I will look into it deeply, please inform me again in direct message

[Naes 12,205]

1 hour ago, GarryAndMarie said:

No, I mailed it on June 2 via USPS Express & it was both signed for & NOA1 on June 5. I found it in the spreadsheet after downloading to me laptop, after not finding it with my phone, not sure why it "disappeared" from the spreadsheet on my phone.

It sometimes doesn't show on the phone, have no idea why.

But if you have more concerns I will look into it