I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 minute ago, DandY said:

Just like VJs, as you have seen in my posts, mine changes slightly as more data becomes available and we get closer. The closer you get, the greater the accuracy obviously. The trend line is definitely looking a bit better, but as I'm a man of my word, I will comment no further.

Just smile and keep your eye on the ball. The end justifies the means. We will all be in our loved ones arms sooner or later. Worrying or even worse, arguing about 10 days plus or minus is a bit silly. We will get through this. 

[Larissa & Johnson 40]

2 hours ago, John & Rose said:

Yes. We are the same. People here say we are moving quicker but the VJ timeline keeps adding days. A bunch of the latest approvals seem to be in the 169 area. That may be why they are tracking November 18 (165 days). 

Me too  

[John & Rose 7,239]

2 minutes ago, DandY said:

As an aside John, you are a far more charitable person than me and I admire you greatly for it. Unfortunately, too much life experience has made me cynical of the motivations of others. 

My friend, I say this with great respect...that is your problem, not the people that caused your cynicism. 

 

Live your our life for you and Your soulmate. Do not let people get under your skin. This is your life and it is truly shorter than we will ever realize. There are good people and bad people in the world. Just elect to be one of the good ones. You have nothing to prove to anyone else. 

[George & Roth 1,485]

@DandY The hell you on about?  Come on mate, just stop stressing yourself out and try and enjoy the forums. 

 

I don't think your formula is correctly adjusting for seasonality, and perhaps I would find more issues if I reviewed it however nothing wrong with having different viewpoints on certain variables.

 

Just don't be so defensive,  we're almost at NOA2! Let's be excited instead of stressed!  

[John & Rose 7,239]

3 minutes ago, George & Roth said:

@DandY The hell you on about?  Come on mate, just stop stressing yourself out and try and enjoy the forums. 

 

I don't think your formula is correctly adjusting for seasonality, and perhaps I would find more issues if I reviewed it however nothing wrong with having different viewpoints on certain variables.

 

Just don't be so defensive,  we're almost at NOA2! Let's be excited instead of stressed!  

There was an aire of attacking the person not the math. When I first read your original post it did seem like it was calling him stupid and cutting down more than just his hypothesis. I don’t believe you meant it that way but it did come off that way, at least to me. 

 

I am still not convinced of the 160. We are in a new era right now. Things are so different that not much of the historical information can be used. Last year it was under two months for NOA2.  There is an impact going into November simply because of the holidays. A four day week followed by a three day week. Hopefully early June will see approvals before then but if not it pushes things back to the 170 that DandY was originally estimating. I have given up on my original 180 but I can’t go below 170 just yet. 

 

Even more concerning is the time it takes for NOA1 now. People with e notifications are waiting over two weeks. I know they are different processes at different offices but it is still interesting. 

 

We all want this to happen as soon as possible. I hope you are correct. I just am not convinced yet. I do promise to admit when I am wrong And I will take your “I told you so”. I truly hope that happens. 

[George & Roth 1,485]

@John & Rose To be honest when it comes to a matter of 10 or 20 days I’m not that concerned, we’ve already lasted so long as it is! 

 

I haven’t read anybody calling anybody else stupid? Those words and nothing close to those words were used, unless it’s someone else’s post I missed. No sense in arguing over it anyway. 

 

I’ve got more important things to worry about now, such as Guinness, IPA, or do I go for a Pinot Grigio. What do you think? 

 

Cheers!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 minute ago, George & Roth said:

@John & Rose To be honest when it comes to a matter of 10 or 20 days I’m not that concerned, we’ve already lasted so long as it is! 

 

I haven’t read anybody calling anybody else stupid? Those words and nothing close to those words were used, unless it’s someone else’s post I missed. No sense in arguing over it anyway. 

 

I’ve got more important things to worry about now, such as Guinness, IPA, or do I go for a Pinot Grigio. What do you think? 

 

Cheers!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Delirium Nocturnum for me please!!!!  No worries. Sometimes the pressures, frustrations and stress get the best of us. We need to keep focused on why we are all here. That and my Delirium Nocturnum and your Pinot Grigio!  I will toast to all of us!

[George & Roth 1,485]

@John & Rose Here you are mate:

 

 

When it comes to Belgian beers I preferred the Chimay variations but it has been out of my rotation for over a decade now. 

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 minute ago, George & Roth said:

@John & Rose Here you are mate:

 

 

When it comes to Belgian beers I preferred the Chimay variations but it has been out of my rotation for over a decade now. 

You should try Chimay Grande Rėserve Barrel Aged!  Expensive but worth it!

[javadown2 308]

Is it really taking 5 months to get to NOA2 now? That sucks!

[John & Rose 7,239]

24 minutes ago, javadown2 said:

Is it really taking 5 months to get to NOA2 now? That sucks!

At least. We think 5 to 6 months. 

[The Squirrel 1,318]

11 hours ago, DandY said:

WOW, you have changed my whole outlook. Of course one can extrapolate from 3 cases to thousands. Makes perfect sense. You should have been my statistics teacher!

 

Still sore? How is your imaginary algorithm doing these days ? Does unnecessary "English" have tendency to confuse foreign subjects into amazement? 

 

Watch me enjoy the ride, nothing to do with statistics,  but you can learn a lot, I promise. No time for depression, that only comes in the end of ends, when you are 6 feet under. I have to enjoy every second of the time above ground.  

 

ps  I do enjoy seldom used words, and word mazes, labyrinths, and like to hear them more so than to use them, so thank you kindly

[John & Rose 7,239]

2 minutes ago, The Squirrel said:

 

Still sore? How is your imaginary algorithm doing these days ? Does unnecessary "English" have tendency to confuse foreign subjects into amazement? 

 

Watch me enjoy the ride, nothing to do with statistics,  but you can learn a lot, I promise. No time for depression, that only comes in the end of ends, when you are 6 feet under. I have to enjoy every second of the time above ground.  

 

ps  I do enjoy seldom used words, and word mazes, labyrinths, and like to hear them more so than to use them, so thank you kindly

I believe DandY’s imaginary algorithm is still more accurate than yours. We will see in 13 days!!!  I’m still agreeing with 170. 

[The Squirrel 1,318]

Just now, John & Rose said:

I believe DandY’s imaginary algorithm is still more accurate than yours. We will see in 13 days!!!  I’m still agreeing with 170. 

Did he hire you for his legal representation, or you volunteered ? You seem to be his follower, fan, priest, social worker, psychiatrist, now a lawyer, and Guardian Angel ? Where does it stop?

 

yes or no questions below, fell free (emojis are hints to correct answer)

 

Did I ever say I had an algorithm? 

Did he show you an algorithm? 

Can something be more accurate than something else if answer is in the future? 

 

 

[John & Rose 7,239]

31 minutes ago, The Squirrel said:

Did he hire you for his legal representation, or you volunteered ? You seem to be his follower, fan, priest, social worker, psychiatrist, now a lawyer, and Guardian Angel ? Where does it stop?

 

yes or no questions below, fell free (emojis are hints to correct answer)

 

Did I ever say I had an algorithm? 

Did he show you an algorithm? 

Can something be more accurate than something else if answer is in the future? 

 

 

Nope. I just have some experience with government and how they do things. My day job is a program manager for a small $14 billion capital program. I know what happens in October and November. It may sound like I am defending DandY but my original estimate was 180. I have moved right in live with DandY at 170. I don’t see any possibility for 160 at all without some type of anomaly or miracle. 

 

I am at 145 so we will found out in two weeks.