I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

[Larissa & Johnson 40]

November is coming...

June filers  going to 150 days and counting ....

[Larissa & Johnson 40]

1. I would like to know what you guys think about contact the congressman/woman

 

[John & Rose 7,239]

2 minutes ago, loveneverfails17 said:

1. I would like to know what you guys think about contact the congressman/woman

 

Only after 6 months. Before that they are still within their prescribed process limits. 

[Larissa & Johnson 40]

5 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

Only after 6 months. Before that they are still within their prescribed process limits. 

John and Rose, does you guys know if have a "law" to do it, something that I can read that the USCIS says about ?

Thank you 

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 hour ago, loveneverfails17 said:

John and Rose, does you guys know if have a "law" to do it, something that I can read that the USCIS says about ?

Thank you 

There is no law that I know of. These are just guidelines that can change it anytime.  There is one couple that waited 231 days for their NOA2 and there were no RFEs.  

 

USCIS currently says 6 months but they can easily change that to 8 months if they want. They said 6 months even when approvals were generally less than 2 months. 

Edited October 26, 2017 by John & Rose

[DandY 134]

20 hours ago, Naes said:

The problem with your theory is - which I want to believe and understand so we can all share- that you're not explaining anything.

I'm not ip spoofing I already have 6 different secure wifi in my house only that I own. I'm not doing anything against the TOS. Cause it actually didn't mention it. As well as goes the free apps being on Apple Store shows it is a possible way.

now if you are saying snapshots as backup tool - cause that's what we call snapshots in IT I don't know the other way, please teach me- then you are going through the same data.

 Basically I want to know how it works.     What is it that we all missing here?

right now to me it sound like someone saying in a job interview I have these skills yet it doesn't say anything in the resume.

First, I think I was incorrect, I assumed that an IP block was tied to TOS, but you are correct, I cannot find that. So I guess it is a simple DOS attack prevention. 

 

Secondly, I only developed an algorithm because the VJ one was so poor at predicting our dates--it just kept sliding and sliding, and I saw no one else posting that had tried to "build a better mousetrap". So I grabbed Fiddler to capture the request and response to USCIS site so I could mimic that and get my snapshots, then I wrote an algorithm. Mostly out of intellectual curiosity. I decided to share my results here because I thought others might be interested. I posted this without warranty expressed or implied and only defended the numbers in advocating that some thought and logic had gone into the algorithm (and I have given conceptual level info for the algorithm). I am not trying for a job interview. Don't believe me. I don't care.

 

Since I was incorrect in my assumption that others would be interested and it seems this is quite unwelcome--I will no longer post the results of my calculations or my opinions on the estimated wait time. Hopefully this will ease tensions in the forum. Everyone believe what they want and lets call it good.

 

Since you asked Naes, I'll answer your question quickly, then I will speak of it no more.

 

I'm not using the term "snapshot" meaning VM snapshot or snapshot vs. full backup, there are other definitions of the term and I'm using it with this definition:

- a record of the contents of a storage location or data file at a given time.

 

Because my algorithm relies heavily on trend information, I need months worth of data. So I have to have multiple snapshots for the same data set to build average wait and trend information along with calculating the backlog size and average worked per week. Because I need data across over 4 months, I am not pulling full month data sets like you. I'm a pulling data sets for smaller ranges of dates over a longer period and extrapolating. This lets me calculate not just the average wait time across the data, but the trend line which I use for predicting.

 

The downside of this is the until the trend line changes direction, I keep projecting out based upon the current trend line weighted primarily by backlog size and the trend line of average batches worked per week. That is why I was overlaying it with the historical trend line assuming the the "down turn" would happen in about the same place chronologically. This was a false assumption and led to overly optimistic predictions (like my algorithm was predicting high 150s for us 2 months ago because historically it is usually getting shorter in September and October, but that didn't happen this year so I adjusted the algorithm to almost completely ignore historical trend lines--I'm giving that only 10% of the weight it had in my initial algorithm). One other interesting adjustment to make might be calculating the standard deviation as it seem they work about 75% or so of a month (I have not calculated, SWAG for illustration purposed) then move to the next month, thus the average wait time is skewed a little high, given this pattern. 

 

So there is the conceptual level of how it works. If you want to write you own with my approach or develop a different approach have at it, I'd love to see your results. But I'm not discussing this anymore.

Edited October 26, 2017 by DandY

[George & Roth 1,485]

3 hours ago, loveneverfails17 said:

1. I would like to know what you guys think about contact the congressman/woman

 

 

I’ve received no response, however I was not long enough into the process. John is in line with what I heard as well. 

[George & Roth 1,485]

That’s all a bit too dramatic. If 1 person offends you the response is that nobody is interested? Do you hope people proclaim how useful it is? (Which is certainly forthcoming)

 

If the enquiry of Naes is hurtful you don’t need to address it. 

 

Let’s sit back and enjoy the ride. Perhaps better stated as sit back and not go crazy. 

[Naes 12,205]

53 minutes ago, DandY said:

First, I think I was incorrect, I assumed that an IP block was tied to TOS, but you are correct, I cannot find that. So I guess it is a simple DOS attack prevention. 

 

Secondly, I only developed an algorithm because the VJ one was so poor at predicting our dates--it just kept sliding and sliding, and I saw no one else posting that had tried to "build a better mousetrap". So I grabbed Fiddler to capture the request and response to USCIS site so I could mimic that and get my snapshots, then I wrote an algorithm. Mostly out of intellectual curiosity. I decided to share my results here because I thought others might be interested. I posted this without warranty expressed or implied and only defended the numbers in advocating that some thought and logic had gone into the algorithm (and I have given conceptual level info for the algorithm). I am not trying for a job interview. Don't believe me. I don't care.

 

Since I was incorrect in my assumption that others would be interested and it seems this is quite unwelcome--I will no longer post the results of my calculations or my opinions on the estimated wait time. Hopefully this will ease tensions in the forum. Everyone believe what they want and lets call it good.

 

Since you asked Naes, I'll answer your question quickly, then I will speak of it no more.

 

I'm not using the term "snapshot" meaning VM snapshot or snapshot vs. full backup, there are other definitions of the term and I'm using it with this definition:

- a record of the contents of a storage location or data file at a given time.

 

Because my algorithm relies heavily on trend information, I need months worth of data. So I have to have multiple snapshots for the same data set to build average wait and trend information along with calculating the backlog size and average worked per week. Because I need data across over 4 months, I am not pulling full month data sets like you. I'm a pulling data sets for smaller ranges of dates over a longer period and extrapolating. This lets me calculate not just the average wait time across the data, but the trend line which I use for predicting.

 

The downside of this is the until the trend line changes direction, I keep projecting out based upon the current trend line weighted primarily by backlog size and the trend line of average batches worked per week. That is why I was overlaying it with the historical trend line assuming the the "down turn" would happen in about the same place chronologically. This was a false assumption and led to overly optimistic predictions (like my algorithm was predicting high 150s for us 2 months ago because historically it is usually getting shorter in September and October, but that didn't happen this year so I adjusted the algorithm to almost completely ignore historical trend lines--I'm giving that only 10% of the weight it had in my initial algorithm). One other interesting adjustment to make might be calculating the standard deviation as it seem they work about 75% or so of a month (I have not calculated, SWAG for illustration purposed) then move to the next month, thus the average wait time is skewed a little high, given this pattern. 

 

So there is the conceptual level of how it works. If you want to write you own with my approach or develop a different approach have at it, I'd love to see your results. But I'm not discussing this anymore.

Thank you for sharing with me.

 

i just asked, it is not about appreciation or using or not. It's just when someone talk about things really certain and don't back it up with data it is hard to understand and follow it realistically. Just like RFEs in real life. 

 

 All I wanted was to learn to see not to waste my time with same calculations if someone else is already getting results with it. I really don't understand why people get defensive when asked to explain things? Like why do people believe everyone will just believe out of nothing like it's a religion? 

 

Because let's get real it's not like there is that much data in hand.

 

I used uptill now for qualitative data: the historical data, consular data, and scans of April- September, and for some qualitative: guidelines for adjucators, interviews and past experiences.. cause only one type of data never helps.

 

btw the definition of snapshot you gave is backup.. there is no difference.. that is a backup way. 

 

So basically the algorithm you use is similar to what I am doing, so thank you but I'll stick with my method, however it's good to know somebody already discovered trendline doesn't work. Yesterday I did the trend lining for a bit and. With the data they sent in September boy it was obvious! That was a mess!

 

It really doesn't matter if you use small or bigger data however as you said historical numbers doesn't work in this years you can use to predict different outcomes. As we don't know what is effecting and how long it will be in effect using trendline would be poor, I was counting on that when we filed too. Good old days... 

 

 However there are ways to work with data that is out of a trend and make it useful!

 But it will all change depending on these scan chunks of the next few weeks.

  I am pretty confident mine will be 150 or less if they can just get back to the job this week  cause it is not in an impossible timeline yet not even for June's to finish around 160 -if they can just pick the pace up a tiny bit...

 

 So basically thank you in the end, I really wished you had some data that would make my day... but we seem to used all up of what we have.

 

Please let me know too if you get any interesting results in the future.

 

Edited October 26, 2017 by Naes

[Naes 12,205]

34 minutes ago, George & Roth said:

That’s all a bit too dramatic. If 1 person offends you the response is that nobody is interested? Do you hope people proclaim how useful it is? (Which is certainly forthcoming)

 

If the enquiry of Naes is hurtful you don’t need to address it. 

 

Let’s sit back and enjoy the ride. Perhaps better stated as sit back and not go crazy. 

I don't even understand why asking someone "hey that's nice so how does it work, would it help us?" can be hurtful or offensive...? 

 

Nor how it means I'm not interested?? I'm obviously extremely interested that I am asking how it works? 

 

Edited October 26, 2017 by Naes

[Birveonrty 110]

PEACE guys!!!

 

It's normal to have individual computations and predictions. Let's just respect what others say. Giving effort in such analysis just prove how eager he/she, or and excited for NOA2, interview and the finale VOH.

I could say, no one or nobody here is correct in computations. Let's not stress ourselves discussing matters which only USCIS can answer.

What we can do as applicants is just pray harder, prepare necessary documents and WAIT.

 

Good luck to us!

[John & Rose 7,239]

I honestly don’t think we are actually fighting. This is a way that we can blow off some steam. We all have stresses and frustrations. We will get through this but I do love the math in both the art and the science behind the predictions. This is actually kind of fun and I know I am learning a lot about myself, the others here, the world and statistics!  What more can I ever ask for?  Oh wait, how about an NOA2!

[Birveonrty 110]

24 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

I honestly don’t think we are actually fighting. This is a way that we can blow off some steam. We all have stresses and frustrations. We will get through this but I do love the math in both the art and the science behind the predictions. This is actually kind of fun and I know I am learning a lot about myself, the others here, the world and statistics!  What more can I ever ask for?  Oh wait, how about an NOA2!

yeah! asking for NOA2!

[Naes 12,205]

28 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

I honestly don’t think we are actually fighting. This is a way that we can blow off some steam. We all have stresses and frustrations. We will get through this but I do love the math in both the art and the science behind the predictions. This is actually kind of fun and I know I am learning a lot about myself, the others here, the world and statistics!  What more can I ever ask for?  Oh wait, how about an NOA2!

 

50 minutes ago, Birveonrty said:

PEACE guys!!!

 

It's normal to have individual computations and predictions. Let's just respect what others say. Giving effort in such analysis just prove how eager he/she, or and excited for NOA2, interview and the finale VOH.

I could say, no one or nobody here is correct in computations. Let's not stress ourselves discussing matters which only USCIS can answer.

What we can do as applicants is just pray harder, prepare necessary documents and WAIT.

 

Good luck to us!

I am by no means- competitive,or fighting or anything for that matter- I am actually sorry if my words taken that way.

 

all I wanted to see was "how" and reach to someone else's "know how"...

 

written word is a hard thing to express feelings like these which I understand may sound like above things. Especially when everybody is tired of this, and everybody is searching for answers in one way or another.

 

All I wanted was the data and he explained to me and I am seriously thankful and sorry that it's been taken as not-interested. I am extremely interested in everyone's idea. Cause we don't know what's happening inside USCIS. We have thousands of theories and hypothesis we are trying to prove. 

 

My mind is nothing but peace ✌️ 

[George & Roth 1,485]

What is all this talk of peace? I’m here for the fights!