I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

[Naes 12,205]

 

7 minutes ago, DandY said:

How do you calculate 3%????

 

There are 321 K1 June filers with VJ timelines. There are 3697 K1 June filers in total. That is almost 9%. VJ runs an average of 8% of all K1 filers historically.

 

And you wonder why I don't trust your math!!!!  

 

3 cases?!?!? 3 out of thousands?!?!? WOW, you are correct, all the data we get from USCIS is useless!!!  

I mean I just feel like both of you right in your perspectives and I don't want to intrude but, I don't think all 8% of vj is active (for each month) and if 3 cases from the ones who even know the app exist that would mean about 38 cases per month.. 

 I am doing the numbers but I do think there are more that is not on the app. Because some cases for decision mailed etc cases actually have weird future dates and some people who called got an answer from tier 2 saying the system not updated yet. 

 However none matters unfortunately it looks pretty random when they start the next month. I think they are just starting the next month when they reach around 2/3 of the current month they're doing. So that they can show their process in their reports. 

 

But these are Just guesses unfortunately...

Edited October 22, 2017 by Naes

[DandY 134]

9 minutes ago, Naes said:

 

I don't think all 8% of vj is active (for each month)

This is very true. It really is not worth it to calculate how many are actually active. Maybe it is only 40% of them, so The Squirrel's 3% is right!

[Naes 12,205]

Just now, DandY said:

This is very true. It really is not worth it to calculate how many are actually active. Maybe it is only 40% of them, so The Squirrel's 3% is right!

All I want is for you guys to get as fast as you can.... so we also can.... 😋

[DandY 134]

2 minutes ago, Naes said:

All I want is for you guys to get as fast as you can.... so we also can.... 😋

One thing is true, we all want the same thing. 

 

My only point is to avoid false expectations. I know personally, that I get very let down when I expect something that does not happen. And I've I've said, 160 day AVERAGE to set your expectations seems like you are setting yourself up for disappointment. VJ says I'm 157-160, I know if I trust that I'll just be disappointed.

[The Squirrel 1,318]

13 minutes ago, DandY said:

How do you calculate 3%????

 

There are 321 K1 June filers with VJ timelines. There are 3697 K1 June filers in total. That is almost 9%. VJ runs an average of 8% of all K1 filers historically.

 

And you wonder why I don't trust your math!!!!  

 

3 cases?!?!? 3 out of thousands?!?!? WOW, you are correct, all the data we get from USCIS is useless!!!  

 

You can trust me, even if you don't trust my math 

 

edit: I was typing this message, and @Naes answered very well

 

It is not 3%, I stand corrected. It is 349 out of original 4500. So we have a correct number of 7.76% of all  filers in month of May. Now it gets better, if 3 of those 349 have a verbal confirmation, than that is almost 1% of forum members. Means at least 42 more in May and 10+ in April overall.

 

Here is the interesting part: there is an average of 20% cases that are denied, as per quarterly reports. I looked at @Naes scan in April, quick search for all words that could mean a denial, rejected, denied, declined or any such language. What I found was only cases that got rejected at the very start for incorrect form, payment, signature. Total is 458. Considering 3958 total cases for the month, and expected rejection rate of 20 would bring us to about 790 cases rejected. So with known 458 rejections out of expected 790, we still should anticipate 332. Where are they, and how will those rejections be entered into system, or will they forever say "received". Than we have May, how many? 

 

[Naes 12,205]

5 minutes ago, The Squirrel said:

 

You can trust me, even if you don't trust my math 

 

edit: I was typing this message, and @Naes answered very well

 

It is not 3%, I stand corrected. It is 349 out of original 4500. So we have a correct number of 7.76% of all  filers in month of May. Now it gets better, if 3 of those 349 have a verbal confirmation, than that is almost 1% of forum members. Means at least 42 more in May and 10+ in April overall.

 

Here is the interesting part: there is an average of 20% cases that are denied, as per quarterly reports. I looked at @Naes scan in April, quick search for all words that could mean a denial, rejected, denied, declined or any such language. What I found was only cases that got rejected at the very start for incorrect form, payment, signature. Total is 458. Considering 3958 total cases for the month, and expected rejection rate of 20 would bring us to about 790 cases rejected. So with known 458 rejections out of expected 790, we still should anticipate 332. Where are they, and how will those rejections be entered into system, or will they forever say "received". Than we have May, how many? 

 

That's interesting I was wondering about denied petitions but and all those people waiting for a year to get any update. 

 

I didnt have time time to reflect date data yet but yeah that seems like an interesting point.. 

[The Squirrel 1,318]

5 minutes ago, Naes said:

That's interesting I was wondering about denied petitions but and all those people waiting for a year to get any update. 

 

I didnt have time time to reflect date data yet but yeah that seems like an interesting point.. 

 

Very interesting. I just looked at May, they had 4172 cases to start, rejections I can't see in last few scans, but little over 200 + 40 or so withdrawals, if I remember. So if we are expecting 835 denied cases, then there are almost 600 to go, and out of remaining 3600 that is 16.6%. That brings May under 3000 cases. But when, if at all those cases will ever be updated online?

[RjBazan 42]

Day 123... And going on 8 months since I’ve seen my fiancé... Even though we skype and talk for about 5 - 10 hrs a day lol... ( I’m a night nurse so she’s awake) which does help but still not the same... I need to see her... Anyone know a good website or app to travel to general santos Philippines... I always use OneTravel but lately they have gone crazy with 40 hr trips and crazy expensive... Thanks!

[John & Rose 7,239]

7 minutes ago, RjBazan said:

Day 123... And going on 8 months since I’ve seen my fiancé... Even though we skype and talk for about 5 - 10 hrs a day lol... ( I’m a night nurse so she’s awake) which does help but still not the same... I need to see her... Anyone know a good website or app to travel to general santos Philippines... I always use OneTravel but lately they have gone crazy with 40 hr trips and crazy expensive... Thanks!

I use Expedia for everything. 

[Geo_nerd82 253]

13 hours ago, Naes said:

July doesn't have sooo many 😊

Im about to finish August and will finish September tomorrow hopefully and give the full update. 

Have any of these full updates been posted yet? And are these completely comprehensive (EVERY I-129f case received by the USCIS), or just VJ cases?

[Naes 12,205]

45 minutes ago, Geo_nerd82 said:

Have any of these full updates been posted yet? And are these completely comprehensive (EVERY I-129f case received by the USCIS), or just VJ cases?

May has been posted by shoegum. April and June by me. For July-sept. I'm checking at the moment. It is every case received by I-129f. I do not have any personal info including wac numbers on any vj member

[DandY 134]

1 hour ago, RjBazan said:

Day 123... And going on 8 months since I’ve seen my fiancé... Even though we skype and talk for about 5 - 10 hrs a day lol... ( I’m a night nurse so she’s awake) which does help but still not the same... I need to see her... Anyone know a good website or app to travel to general santos Philippines... I always use OneTravel but lately they have gone crazy with 40 hr trips and crazy expensive... Thanks!

The price you pay for plane tickets is the same on every travel site that sells the same route and airline. There is no “wiggle room” in airline ticket prices. 

[Birveonrty 110]

2 hours ago, RjBazan said:

Day 123... And going on 8 months since I’ve seen my fiancé... Even though we skype and talk for about 5 - 10 hrs a day lol... ( I’m a night nurse so she’s awake) which does help but still not the same... I need to see her... Anyone know a good website or app to travel to general santos Philippines... I always use OneTravel but lately they have gone crazy with 40 hr trips and crazy expensive... Thanks!

Oh we're living in the same city in Phils!

[The Squirrel 1,318]

Just a quick update, as @Shoegum has put out another scan, it appears that we had couple of late Friday and Saturday additions (by subtractions). So going into Monday we have

 

April   1000+

May    3598

June   3697

 

I have to add June's projected rejection percentage of 20%, which should be about 800 . As per @Naes scan and stats we have 310 total early rejections for incorrect fees, forms, signatures etc, and I also have added 23 voluntary withdrawals. Should history be the leading wisdom, we should have 490 more rejections to come for June filers, some 11% of the remaining bunch. 

 

Or should we add all 3 months, April+May+June than we should have 1420 total rejections yet to come (at their reported numbers). With that said, month of April is essentially all done, and there are 7295 cases left "good" to the very last filer in month of June.  

 

 

Edited October 23, 2017 by The Squirrel

[The Squirrel 1,318]

It is not letting me edit, it is not 11%, but about 14%. 

 

I may as well add that May has 436 live RFE's amongst those 3598 cases left to do, so 3162 remain untouched.