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I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

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35 minutes ago, loveneverfails17 said:

How you process will be processed in this date? Did you forget june? 

 

2 hours ago, Geo_nerd82 said:

I don't know, check my math and numbers (never my strong point), but based on USCIS published data I've seen, they get an average of 3300 I-129f applications per month and in Q3 they processed an average of 134.5 applications per day (that's calculated every day, not every working day). I read somewhere on this forum that they received some 3700 applications in June and had another 3000 to go for May. So, if (and a big if), that 134.5 a day still holds, my July 3 application should be process on or around November 23, which is consistent with my original estimate. Again, check my numbers, but what I've seen from that seems to be a lot different than the 180+ days people on here are talking about.

Even using your numbers and assuming only 6700 petitions remain before July 1, your own math puts June 30 filers 7 weeks out. 6700 divided by 135 equals 49.7 days. 49.7 days divided by 7 days per week equals 7.1 weeks. Your own math puts June 30 filers off until December 4. Your July 3 by November 23 would mean USCIS would have to AVERAGE 191 petitions per day, 7 days per week. A 5 day week would require them to process 267 petitions PER DAY to meet your time frame. I’ll stick with my 180 to 190 days right now. It seems a bit more realistic. 

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5 hours ago, Geo_nerd82 said:

I don't know, check my math and numbers (never my strong point), but based on USCIS published data I've seen, they get an average of 3300 I-129f applications per month and in Q3 they processed an average of 134.5 applications per day (that's calculated every day, not every working day). I read somewhere on this forum that they received some 3700 applications in June and had another 3000 to go for May. So, if (and a big if), that 134.5 a day still holds, my July 3 application should be process on or around November 23, which is consistent with my original estimate. Again, check my numbers, but what I've seen from that seems to be a lot different than the 180+ days people on here are talking about.

If your case gets worked on by Nov 23, then you’ll be approved quicker than my optimistic estimate at 166 days for our case!

I can believe they work on and av. 134.5 cases per day (incl not working day), but from what I understand, is that the I-129f adjudicators had to jump on to other application categories recently which has caused our slow down. I think they’re back working on I-129f s now and resumed their normal daily average now but still, it created a backlog.

 

3 hours ago, John & Rose said:

There are 4700 total in May and 3800 in June. Over 1000 April haven’t been touched yet and the difference between May and June outstanding petitions was just 3. So 1000 April, 3797 May and 3800 June haven’t been touched. You July petition will be in January, not November. My June 6 petition is estimated here as November 15 now and they are generally 2 weeks after that date. I’m lucky if my June 6 petition will be in November and you think your July 3 will be quicker than mine?  I truly hope you are right but my original estimate was September 6. Now I’m at November 15 and I still have over a month before NOA2. I anticipate early December for early June filers. We will see. The 135 a day is nowhere near the average but even if it were, it would be 12 weeks before they even get through June!!!!  That is 8400 petitions at 135 per day, 5 days a week!!!  12.4 weeks before July even gets looked at. Your numbers just don’t seem to be based in reality. Take holidays into account and it looks even worse. At 135 per day 7 days a week you are still talking about 8 weeks just to get through June, which is very close to my estimate for mid December for early June filers. I don’t see your numbers working unless you just forget about a month in front of you. 

We’ve heard that 1000 April cases haven’t been touched on the USCIS tracker, but we do get reports on here that cases which are approved, and RFEs are sent without the USCIS tracker being updated. So I anticipate much less than that number for April and similar for the first third/half of May filers. (And remember the case tracker was considered to be Broken during the bulk March /beginning April filers’ adjudication period)

 

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5 hours ago, John & Rose said:

 

Even using your numbers and assuming only 6700 petitions remain before July 1, your own math puts June 30 filers 7 weeks out. 6700 divided by 135 equals 49.7 days. 49.7 days divided by 7 days per week equals 7.1 weeks. Your own math puts June 30 filers off until December 4. Your July 3 by November 23 would mean USCIS would have to AVERAGE 191 petitions per day, 7 days per week. A 5 day week would require them to process 267 petitions PER DAY to meet your time frame. I’ll stick with my 180 to 190 days right now. It seems a bit more realistic. 

That is a lot of number crunching! :blink: Now I know why I never went into business or accounting! Bottom line: be prepared to wait! Hang in there everyone B-)

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6 hours ago, John & Rose said:

There are 4700 total in May and 3800 in June. Over 1000 April haven’t been touched yet and the difference between May and June outstanding petitions was just 3. So 1000 April, 3797 May and 3800 June haven’t been touched.

 

@John & Rose has accidentally slightly inflated the numbers in May and June by 100 cases, and also there has been 47 more done (46 approved 1 declined)  since the last count. I don't mean to nit pick, but a third of a percent is a third of a percent :lol:. So, to be exact. updated on all websites we have: 

 

June 3697

May  3653

April 1000+

 

Also, on this forum we have 3 cases now where there was a verbal confirmation at least a week ago, and no update online. How many more are out here? Keep in mind that on this forum we have less than 3% of total number of applicants. How much we don't know? At least we know that 148 cases from April got handled last week as per the great work of @Naes and @Shoegum , but we don't know prior weeks. And that is about 10% of their remaining total. Is 20% April cases "up in the air" maybe due to serious consideration due to questionable cases, fraud, all else bad? All has to be taken into the account.

 

Picture is not that grim, rest assured :)

 

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33 minutes ago, The Squirrel said:

 

@John & Rose has accidentally slightly inflated the numbers in May and June by 100 cases, and also there has been 47 more done (46 approved 1 declined)  since the last count. I don't mean to nit pick, but a third of a percent is a third of a percent :lol:. So, to be exact. updated on all websites we have: 

 

June 3697

May  3653

April 1000+

 

Also, on this forum we have 3 cases now where there was a verbal confirmation at least a week ago, and no update online. How many more are out here? Keep in mind that on this forum we have less than 3% of total number of applicants. How much we don't know? At least we know that 148 cases from April got handled last week as per the great work of @Naes and @Shoegum , but we don't know prior weeks. And that is about 10% of their remaining total. Is 20% April cases "up in the air" maybe due to serious consideration due to questionable cases, fraud, all else bad? All has to be taken into the account.

 

Picture is not that grim, rest assured :)

 

that's my point, i keep reading that some people got noa2's with no updates. 

i can't wait until we also get the numbers for july-sept! that's gonna be super interesting to see how many.

i have a feeling july doesn't have sooo many :)

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July doesn't have sooo many 😊

Im about to finish August and will finish September tomorrow hopefully and give the full update. 

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20 minutes ago, Swissmiss82 said:

that's my point, i keep reading that some people got noa2's with no updates. 

i can't wait until we also get the numbers for july-sept! that's gonna be super interesting to see how many.

i have a feeling july doesn't have sooo many :)

They don’t get updates online but are the changes are shown in Shoegum’s and others daily scripts?  My guess is the best and most accurate numbers are from those people who run those scripts. 

PHILIPPINES ONLY!!!  CFO (Commission on Filipinos Overseas) INFO - Can't leave home without it!

 

PDOS (Pre-Departure Registration and Orientation Seminar) is for ages 20-59.  Peer Counseling is for 13-19 years of age.

It is required to have the visa in their passport for PDOS and Peer Counseling.

 

GCP (Guidance and Counseling Program) is for K-1 Fiancee and IR/CR-1 spouse ONLY. 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Naes said:

July doesn't have sooo many 😊

Im about to finish August and will finish September tomorrow hopefully and give the full update. 

u already got the number for july??? :D how many is it?

woah so we all got a "monday motivation" if these numbers are finished!

ohhh, #NAESOURHERO :D hihi

N-400: 12/05/2023 (confirmed fingerprints are re-used)

Interview scheduled for: 05/09/2024

 

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17 hours ago, Geo_nerd82 said:

@DandY and @The Squirrel , keep in mind, too that VJ data shouldn't be relied upon too strongly. It's probably not too far off, but only a fraction of people filing I-129f's are on here, and only some of those actually update their timelines. So, we're only dealing with a small portion of the data here, regardless of which one of your side's that data backs up.

???

 

I have argued that many times. As well as the fact that their algorithm to predict dates is too simple and slow to react to trend lines. We may refer to the VJ data, but it is not the data we most use. Most of the data we are crunching is from the USCIS web site. I do not due full scans because I don't want to set up elaborate IP spoofing, etc, so I pull chunks of data that have seem to correlate well with the full scans pulled by others.

 

The Squirrel argues that when we pull the data from USCIS it is not correct because there is anecdotal evidence that it is not always updated in a timely fashion therefore our timeline numbers based upon USCIS are wrong. I do not believe it is as widespread as he does, or takes as long as he does, but there is no concrete proof either way.

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Just now, John & Rose said:

They don’t get updates online but are the changes are shown in Shoegum’s and others daily scripts?  My guess is the best and most accurate numbers are from those people who run those scripts. 

of course i trust the scripts, but what i'm saying if people dont see updates online, how would they show on the script reading?

if it's not updated, it's not updated, nowhere....

 

either way - it's way too many that are pending, we agree to that :)

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5 minutes ago, Swissmiss82 said:

u already got the number for july??? :D how many is it?

woah so we all got a "monday motivation" if these numbers are finished!

ohhh, #NAESOURHERO :D hihi

I did but because of the super typhoon here I'm trying to just finish all before my connection goes too bad. So I couldnt check them fully and put the link yet which I'm gonna do tomorrow (it's almost midnight here 😣)

  Even with the rejects etc. July had 3792 cases.

 

edit: I just made a quick check and it looks like 3371 cases (received,name update, birthdate update, rfe sent and rfe received)

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1 minute ago, Naes said:

I did but because of the super typhoon here I'm trying to just finish all before my connection goes too bad. So I couldnt check them fully and put the link yet which I'm gonna do tomorrow (it's almost midnight here 😣)

  Even without the rejects etc. July had 3792 cases.

oooh no, be safe!!! 

 

thanks for the number. that looks pretty good, if this is the total number and not filtered yet :D  wohoooo! we got good hope again

 

April   1000+

May    3653

June   3697

July    3792 (unfiltered)

N-400: 12/05/2023 (confirmed fingerprints are re-used)

Interview scheduled for: 05/09/2024

 

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Just now, Swissmiss82 said:

oooh no, be safe!!! 

 

thanks for the number. that looks pretty good, if this is the total number and not filtered yet :D  wohoooo! we got good hope again

 

April   1000+

May    3653

June   3697

July    3792 (unfiltered)

July 3371 filtered 😋 

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2 minutes ago, Naes said:

July 3371 filtered 😋 

uhhhhh :D i think we will all sleep like babies tonight hahahaha

pure excitement :) 

 

Now I can't wait for August! how about 2700? lol 

N-400: 12/05/2023 (confirmed fingerprints are re-used)

Interview scheduled for: 05/09/2024

 

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1 hour ago, The Squirrel said:

Also, on this forum we have 3 cases now where there was a verbal confirmation at least a week ago, and no update online. How many more are out here? Keep in mind that on this forum we have less than 3% of total number of applicants. How much we don't know?

 

How do you calculate 3%????

 

There are 321 K1 June filers with VJ timelines. There are 3697 K1 June filers in total. That is almost 9%. VJ runs an average of 8% of all K1 filers historically.

 

And you wonder why I don't trust your math!!!! :P:P:P 

 

3 cases?!?!? 3 out of thousands?!?!? WOW, you are correct, all the data we get from USCIS is useless!!! :P:P:P 

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