I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

[John & Rose 7,239]

7 minutes ago, qqq said:

Do you guys count weekends?

Yes!!!  Every day is a day?

[John & Rose 7,239]

I’m not sure where the question mark came from!!!  Each day, including weekends and holidays are included in the estimated count.

[RcaliforniaR 5]

so.... does this mean that May filers or early June  won't get their Visa before Christmas?

Edited October 20, 2017 by RcaliforniaR

[DandY 134]

6 minutes ago, RcaliforniaR said:

so.... does this mean that May filers or early June  won't get their Visa before Christmas?

Have you been reading this thread or did you jump in and ask a question without trying to search or review what has been said? There is discussion all over several threads here about timelines.

 

But, since this post gives me an opportunity to opine, what the heck:

 

Several of us have been saying for many weeks that Christmas was not going to happen. For a realistic chance at Christmas, NOA2 needs to happen in the next week, maybe 2. June filers are still an easy month away for anyone but the "line jumpers" that get lucky and get their petitions worked way out of order. 

 

It seems as things go lately, people fall into three categories:

The "Lucky" (in quotes because none of us are lucky)

The Norm

The Exceptionally Unlucky

 

It seems that there is some percentage (I have not calculated, but gut tells me 10-15%) the get worked "early". I call them the line jumpers. Their petition gets worked 1-2 weeks before the bulk of their date range is getting worked. These are the "Lucky" ones.

 

The Exceptionally Unlucky are the ones the take 1-6+ weeks longer than 90% of the people that filed on their date. For instance, the majority of April has been worked, but there are many people in April who are over 172 days of as of this writing and LOTS of May filers creeping up over 165 days.

 

The Norm is where most people are. It seems the majority of people that file on a given date are worked within the same 8-15 day window. It still feels pretty bad, like for mid-April, that window as an average wait of 146-158 days (if you are on the 158 day end, it does not feel "normal"). 

 

I'm starting to think that John's joke that he was the optimist is unfortunately deadly accurate.

 

[John & Rose 7,239]

25 minutes ago, RcaliforniaR said:

so.... does this mean that May filers) won't get their Visa before Christmas?

If you track backwards, if you want to be at VOH by Christmas, the interview would have to be on or before December 15. Subtract 45 days to schedule interview (November 1) and a couple weeks from NOA2 to NVC (October 18).  So, if you received the NOA2 two days ago, you would have a slight chance of making POE by Christmas.  The 45 days can be quicker (quickest I’ve seen is 37 but I’m sure others may be quicker - most seem like 60 days is a good reasonable time from NOA2 to interview) or longer.  The 10 days for NVC can be as quick as 5.  The 10 days to VOH from interview can also be as quick as 5.  

 

In my opinion, NOA2 would probably be required by October 1 to make POE by Christmas.

 

Please believe me.  I wish I was wrong.  Oct 1 NOA 2 would mean a December 1 interview.  Add 10 days for AP and you are at December 11.  Pack and fly to be in the US by December 18 with a week to spare.  It is still cutting it close.

Edited October 20, 2017 by John & Rose

[DandY 134]

2 hours ago, Stemar said:

135 days for us! Faster faster faster pleeeeeeease

Unfortunately, given the data of the past 3 weeks, slower slower seems to be the mantra.

[RcaliforniaR 5]

Thank you so much @John & Rose, that helps a lot! 

 

[asaeljethro 162]

@John & Rose Did you do your CFO at Clark or Manila?

[DandY 134]

5 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

The 10 days for NVC can be as quick as 5.

Or as long as 30 as many April filers are seeing.

[John & Rose 7,239]

2 minutes ago, RcaliforniaR said:

Thank you so much @John & Rose, that helps a lot! 

 

It really doesn’t.  This waiting sucks but we are all better off knowing that these are real numbers.  I hope things go quicker but there are also holidays.  In my case, there are 10 more holidays for the Embassy in Manila from now to the end of the year.  That will make the Philippines numbers even longer.

4 minutes ago, asaeljethro said:

@John & Rose Did you do your CFO at Clark or Manila?

Manila.  She did it on October 3.

[DandY 134]

6 minutes ago, RcaliforniaR said:

Thank you so much @John & Rose, that helps a lot! 

 

@John & Rose - You got a thank you because you are nicer than me and will answer the same question 20 times.

[John & Rose 7,239]

3 minutes ago, DandY said:

Or as long as 30 as many April filers are seeing.

I was trying to avoid that part of the reality.  60 days to interview (from NVC) and another 10 to 15 for NVC # and “ready” status means interview can be closer to 75 days from actual NOA2 notification.  I am still going long because of holidays.  Without the holidays 45 to 60 is good for NOA2 to interview.

[RcaliforniaR 5]

@John & Rose, thank you for the information. It helps a lot when it comes to our planning. We were hoping for before Christmas as I'm sure most May filers are (and April). But your calculations make a lot of sense and although we are optimistic, we have to make some different life arrangements. 

[John & Rose 7,239]

3 minutes ago, DandY said:

@John & Rose - You got a thank you because you are nicer than me and will answer the same question 20 times.

I’m just re-answering hoping to find a math error!!!!

[John & Rose 7,239]

4 minutes ago, RcaliforniaR said:

@John & Rose, thank you for the information. It helps a lot when it comes to our planning. We were hoping for before Christmas as I'm sure most May filers are (and April). But your calculations make a lot of sense and although we are optimistic, we have to make some different life arrangements. 

Just like they warn against booking flights until VOH, the same goes for this.  If things all fall into place, it can move quicker but those are good things.  Planning your December wedding and paying for it when you most likely wont be together until January can be stressful.  

 

I hope it is quicker and easier but I suggest planning for a worse case or medium case scenario.  Good luck to you.  I hope you make it but always remember that eventually we will all be with our loved ones.

Edited October 20, 2017 by John & Rose