I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 minute ago, June2017UK said:

Optimists, pessimists, realists, dreamers, fantasists,.. whatever we think we are... I think we should do wager ‘just for fun’ on here.

So I’m predicting my case will either get an RFE or Approval in 166 days from its received date.. just before the Thanksgiving holidays.

 

@John & Rose is suggesting 183 days (6/6 -> 12/6)

What are everyone else’s predictions?

 

I’m up for it!  I hope you get it before Thanksgiving because those 2 days off and the holiday spirit that follows will slow things down and you may be right with me!

[The Squirrel 1,318]

Cool @June2017UK I'll pick you up on that ! Closest one wins, and optimists get a 7 day "free range" bonus 

 

I say - WE collectively are 160 days !

[June2017UK 430]

8 minutes ago, The Squirrel said:

Cool @June2017UK I'll pick you up on that ! Closest one wins, and optimists get a 7 day "free range" bonus 

 

I say - WE collectively are 160 days !

No free range bonus’ here Mr Squirrel, that’s just not cricket! All, or nothing.. you need to put your stake in the ground on the one figure.

But yes, ‘closest to the Pin’, wins!

 

Come on @The Squirrel - pls fill in your timeline.  I’m sure you search other timelines regardless that you think the algorithms on VJ are skewed.

Edited October 16, 2017 by June2017UK

[LucyG289 158]

May filer here checking in on my June friends  Sneaked over to your postings and loving the optimism and support - plus very much enjoying the talk of beers, gin and the potential odds on favourite for NOA2 wait time!!

 

Perhaps we need to reinstate the NOA2 bar!! Many April filers are already there it seems, early May starting to be there too!! And then..it's your turn!!!

 

Anyway, enough of my crazy rantings (I blame the process) - wishing you all loads of luck and keep up the positivity and support

 

[John & Rose 7,239]

10 minutes ago, LucyG289 said:

May filer here checking in on my June friends  Sneaked over to your postings and loving the optimism and support - plus very much enjoying the talk of beers, gin and the potential odds on favourite for NOA2 wait time!!

 

Perhaps we need to reinstate the NOA2 bar!! Many April filers are already there it seems, early May starting to be there too!! And then..it's your turn!!!

 

Anyway, enough of my crazy rantings (I blame the process) - wishing you all loads of luck and keep up the positivity and support

 

We always love when our older family members stop by.  I just wish you would get your NOA2 so it will move closer to us!!!!

 

Yes, the process is crazy but we are all in this together.  We disagree on numbers but I want to see all of us with our NOA2s as soon as possible...with the exception of the July filers....they are all jerks.....  

 

LOL

 

Just kidding.  Trying to bring a smile to our day...  I wish us all the best and @June2017UK, I hope I lose the bet!

 

 

Edited October 16, 2017 by John & Rose

[John & Rose 7,239]

8 minutes ago, June2017UK said:

Come on @The Squirrel - pls fill in your timeline.  I’m sure you search other timelines regardless that you think the algorithms on VJ are skewed.

No wonder my guesstimates are wrong!!!  @The Squirrel doesn't have a timeline!!!!!

[LucyG289 158]

1 minute ago, John & Rose said:

We always love when our older family members stop by.  I just wish you would get your NOA2 so it will move closer to us!!!!

 

Yes, the process is crazy but we are all in this together.  We disagree on numbers but I want to see all of us with our NOA2s as soon as possible...with the exception of the July filers....they are all jerks.....  

 

LOL

 

Just kidding.  Trying to bring a smile to our day...  I wish us all the best and @June2017UK, I hope i lose the bet!

 

 

Ahhh thank you, it's probably the only time in my life I am thankful and absolutely joyous of being described as an older family member lol 

 

The numbers baffle us all daily for sure!! And yessss let's see an absolute surge of approvals this week please!!

 

See you at the NOA2 bar soon, you can work out who is getting a round in dependent on your bets!! 

 

Good luck everyone

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 minute ago, LucyG289 said:

Ahhh thank you, it's probably the only time in my life I am thankful and absolutely joyous of being described as an older family member lol 

 

The numbers baffle us all daily for sure!! And yessss let's see an absolute surge of approvals this week please!!

 

See you at the NOA2 bar soon, you can work out who is getting a round in dependent on your bets!! 

 

Good luck everyone

I will be more than happy...no...proud to buy the first round.  

[MarksMate 227]

I have a question. If I need to ask it in a different thread, I shall do so.

 

My US citizen is due to start a new job on November 6th, after a 3 month period of not working. The income before this period was well above the 2 household income requirement, and so will the income be for the new job, there was no income during this 3 month period but the income already earned for the year when he lost his job was already well over the income threshold.  Now, how does this work in terms of the interview and payslips? The job he stated on our i129f form is not with the same employer he will be starting with next month. Also, I am not sure he will have 4 payslips of the new job by the time I have my interview as he is paid Monthly, so we aren't expecting the first payslip till December. What kind of financial support documents do I take with me to the interview then?  Anything else I should be aware of in regards to this?

 

 

 

[The Squirrel 1,318]

1 hour ago, June2017UK said:

No free range bonus’ here Mr Squirrel, that’s just not cricket! All, or nothing.. you need to put your stake in the ground on the one figure.

But yes, ‘closest to the Pin’, wins!

 

Come on @The Squirrel - pls fill in your timeline.  I’m sure you search other timelines regardless that you think the algorithms on VJ are skewed.

 

OK, even without the "bonus" I will stick to my 160 days

 

Like I said, I didn't fill my timeline because I don't want to fail thousands of members who are here looking daily and guessing and falling into desperation. My date is June 9th, which was a Friday, the first full week for June, as June 1st and 2nd were Thursday and Friday of the week before. Also guys, keep in mind that 29th of May was a holiday, so there is no cases on that day, and also, USCIS has bunched 30th and 31st of May both into one day - the 30th, hence such large number of applications that day 400+. 

 

We are so close I can taste it

[John & Rose 7,239]

8 minutes ago, MarksMate said:

I have a question. If I need to ask it in a different thread, I shall do so.

 

My US citizen is due to start a new job on November 6th, after a 3 month period of not working. The income before this period was well above the 2 household income requirement, and so will the income be for the new job, there was no income during this 3 month period but the income already earned for the year when he lost his job was already well over the income threshold.  Now, how does this work in terms of the interview and payslips? The job he stated on our i129f form is not with the same employer he will be starting with next month. Also, I am not sure he will have 4 payslips of the new job by the time I have my interview as he is paid Monthly, so we aren't expecting the first payslip till December. What kind of financial support documents do I take with me to the interview then?  Anything else I should be aware of in regards to this?

I would take his tax returns (bring 3 years or more if possible) and his last three pay stubs.  Hopefully one will be from the new company.  That should be enough information for the CO to ask questions.  You have a good answer if they do ask, too.  If you are really concerned, have his new company's HR department give him a letter stating his income and start date of the new job.  I really think you are fine.

Edited October 16, 2017 by John & Rose

[MarksMate 227]

10 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

I would take his tax returns (bring 3 years or more if possible) and his last three pay stubs.  That should be enough information for the CO to ask questions.  You have a good answer if they do ask, too.  If you are really concerned, have his company's HR department give him a letter stating his income and start date of the new job.  I really think you are fine.

He has been working full time for 2 years, so the tax returns before that would be very low as he was a University student, I am hoping we have an interview before February and if we do there wouldn't be three pay stubs. Yes, we will get a letter from HR. Tax returns, letter from HR, any paystubs he does have. Thankyou!

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 minute ago, MarksMate said:

He has been working full time for 2 years, so the tax returns before that would be very low as he was a University student, I am hoping we have an interview before February and if we do there wouldn't be three pay stubs. Yes, we will get a letter from HR. Tax returns, letter from HR, any paystubs he does have. Thankyou!

That should be all they need to prove support.  Good luck!!!

[DandY 134]

2 hours ago, The Squirrel said:

I am also arguing (at least) 7 days data entry work lagging on their end, hence not rocket science that we are well on our way.

 

Love when people use "realist" to mask their pessimism . So what am I then, a "fantasist", or "dreamer"? No, I am a "realist", and you and @John & Rose are a pessimists . Being that this is a forum based on love, naturally I don't mean anything bad about anyone.

 

And also you are totally incorrect about April slowdown. USCIS has a fiscal year starting on October 1st, hence they dropped down in production some 30%+ in the second quarter - Jan - Feb - Mar. Next quarter they were back to their regular output. Our quarter od April-May-June had least applications in a long time, hence draw your own conclusions. They are on their way to us !

I'll speak for John here because I know he would agree. We would like nothing more than you to be right, and us to be wrong. Trust me--you have no idea how much crow on want to eat on this one!

 

But I think somehow we are talking past each other.

 

I'm a numbers guy and like John I need to manage expectations based upon the data in my day job. March filers were seeing average approvals in the mid-130s. It got longer for April filers, then longer for May filers (I'm sure in September when March was waiting for 135 days you would have said "No way May will have to wait for 160 days", but here we are).

 

My algorithm that uses trend info with some other data puts us at 168 days. You posted that this time next month, you believed they would work June 1. If you are correct and they work a bulk of June 1 on or around (some early, some later) November 16 (this time next month), guess what the average wait time will be for June 1 filers--168 days!!! Exactly what my math is predicting.

 

However, I added into the algorithm the rate at which they are working K1s with how many are in the queue before us which altered the estimate, and that made the estimate worse (depending on how I weight that data, I get between 174 and 178 average for me--June 5--which if that happens, I hit Thanksgiving so it gets worse). 

 

I will grant you that updates to the USCIS web site DB may be delayed so we may not have the data showing the average wait time is actually decreasing. There are a few anomalies I grant you, but I don't have any data from the NOA2 updates here to believe the trend tide has turned and we just have not seen it due to slow updates.

 

Again, I want a 160 day estimate to be correct. I really do. I sit at 133 days now. For me to get processed in 28 days (160 is  Sunday, so say 161 for me), they have to work them now at a better rate than they have in months and months and months. I think Some of us will be around the 158 to 160 mark for sure--they will be the line jumpers, not the average, unless there are a BUNCH of late updates to the web site that will end up showing they are working K1s at historically unprecedented rates, I think it is too optimistic to assume they will. From all my research, I don't see a driver for them to work them at unprecedented rates until we are in danger of going over 182 days. But just my humble opinion. Again--please be correct and let me be wrong!!!!!!!!

 

Oh well, this math would be a lot more fun if it didn't impact my life or painted a better picture!

 

Not that it matters, but I'm curious which historical metric are you looking at? We saw K1 backlog increase by 33% in April and H1B decrease significantly. Also, average approval time jumped significantly for March filers, not earlier. So, how was there a slow down in January? Maybe we are looking at a different metric.

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 hour ago, DandY said:

I'll speak for John here because I know he would agree. We would like nothing more than you to be right, and us to be wrong. Trust me--you have no idea how much crow on want to eat on this one!

 

I'm a numbers guy and like John I need to manage expectations based upon the data in my day job. March filers were seeing average approvals in the mid-130s. It got longer for April filers, then longer for May filers (I'm sure in September when March was waiting for 135 days you would have said "No way May will have to wait for 160 days", but here we are).

I agree 100%.  I want to be wrong so badly!!!!  I want everyone to say "I told you so".  Right now, the evidence just doesn't support that.

 

Earlier there was a post from an April filer who just got NOA2 and the website and even the USCIS phone rep wasn't updated.  But it was an April filer and they were at 163 days.  I do not see any evidence that June filers will be anywhere close to 160 but please everybody, prove me wrong.

 

There are September filers who thought they would be with their loved ones by Christmas.  I don't want to be a Debbie Downer but we do need to be honest.  Right now there is no indication that things will suddenly turn around and get us back to where we all want to be.