I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

[DandY 134]

45 minutes ago, The Squirrel said:

 

And more importantly, do not believe that we will be much beyond 160 days. The apparent slowdown was in the USCIS second fiscal quarter, that being January, February and March. That is where they slowed down, to a tune of 30%, throwing the "pending" number of cases from 15000 to 20000. Third quarter they got back on track and went to they standard 12,000+ cases done. Let's see what this week brings, today should be telling, it would take an average of 173 cases approved every day to get every single May case done including RFES (227 as of today), to be on June 1st on this date next month.  There is only 15 business days in May they haven't touched yet, then it is our turn.

 

Start getting ready boys and girls, we are soon to be up for happy life !

OK, since I'm the realist, It is not necessarily our turn after they "touch" a petition from each remaining May day. Not all petitions from April or from the first 15 days of May have been worked and the bulk of them should come before the bulk of us. We will likely see some June "line jumpers" as we see in each month, but the bulk of June won't begin to be touched for a bit. 

 

I disagree that today is "telling". We frequently see processing spikes just one or two days a week. If they process a large quantity today (say 150), there is no reason to believe (in fact there is considerable historical evidence to support the opposite) that they will process 150 tomorrow.

 

You are correct--if they work an unprecedented number per week, we can be at 168 days (I'm not sure what your limit is for "much beyond 160", but when closer to 170 it is "much beyond" to me). But, with the rate they have been worked, it is likely they will not "pick up the pace" until we get close to hitting a 6 month timeline (i.e. 182 days). 

 

Running the math, 168 seems quite improbable right now for early June filers, but I would agree it looks quite possible for late June filers. 174-178 for early June filers looks considerably more likely given the data I'm looking at (see, I'm the optimistic one, I'm working the numbers so I don't agree with John's 180+!!!!!!).

 

As an aside, I not sure what you mean by the slow down Jan-Mar. The actual slow down happened early April. The backlog jumped and timelines increased then. Jan. filers were still getting done in an expected amount of time. The first people to feel a SERIOUS impact were March filers and the impact has been getting worse and worse.

 

 

 

[The Squirrel 1,318]

Here is more to add to my argument of USCIS having approved many more cases than has been updated, this just in from May topic:

 

25 minutes ago, K+D said:

Had the craziest/greatest of Monday mornings ever. I started calling immigration super early to try to get an update on my case. Eventually I convinced the person to connect me with a tier 2 and was put on a call back with average wait time 81 minutes. During that time, I got the email the USPS about the informed delivery digest....and it had a letter from USCIS in it!!! I was jumping but I didn't want to become too overjoyed. I just got the callback and I was told that my case was approved! My tracker didn't update which is kind of weird because I was getting updates all along, even that they had received my RFE. The notice is dated 10/10/17!

 

NOA1 received: April 27th

NOA1 notice date: May 1st 

RFE email: September 25th

RFE hardcopy received: September 28th

RFE response received by USCIS: September 29th

NOA2 notice date: October 10th

Thank you so much !!!! I just got the callback from USCIS and I am approved!!

 

There is another case where the online update is a week behind the approval. We have no clue where they are, meaning they have updated the online status for cases from 1st to 8th, so it can very well be possible that they are at May 15th (middle of May!!!). Did I say "heads up my friends", the ball is rolling, coming our way!!!

 

 

[John & Rose 7,239]

18 minutes ago, DandY said:

OK, since I'm the realist, It is not necessarily our turn after they "touch" a petition from each remaining May day. Not all petitions from April or from the first 15 days of May have been worked and the bulk of them should come before the bulk of us. We will likely see some June "line jumpers" as we see in each month, but the bulk of June won't begin to be touched for a bit. 

 

I disagree that today is "telling". We frequently see processing spikes just one or two days a week. If they process a large quantity today (say 150), there is no reason to believe (in fact there is considerable historical evidence to support the opposite) that they will process 150 tomorrow.

 

You are correct--if they work an unprecedented number per week, we can be at 168 days (I'm not sure what your limit is for "much beyond 160", but when closer to 170 it is "much beyond" to me). But, with the rate they have been worked, it is likely they will not "pick up the pace" until we get close to hitting a 6 month timeline (i.e. 182 days). 

 

Running the math, 168 seems quite improbable right now for early June filers, but I would agree it looks quite possible for late June filers. 174-178 for early June filers looks considerably more likely given the data I'm looking at (see, I'm the optimistic one, I'm working the numbers so I don't agree with John's 180+!!!!!!).

 

As an aside, I not sure what you mean by the slow down Jan-Mar. The actual slow down happened early April. The backlog jumped and timelines increased then. Jan. filers were still getting done in an expected amount of time. The first people to feel a SERIOUS impact were March filers and the impact has been getting worse and worse.

 

 

 

AGREED!!!  As much as I would LOVE to see this move faster, I anticipate the 180 day mark will be the realistic target.  There are still a few February and March "stragglers" without NOA2 or RFE.  Yes, May is being "touched" but the backlog is too large to think we will be seeing 160 anytime soon.  

 

My thoughts are that early June will be right at the 180 day point while late June will see those numbers move quicker and hopefully into the 170s for the later June filers.  

 

I am a firm believer that once Halloween hits, things may very well slow down again so July and August filers will see the Holi-daze hit.  That time of year when our petitions will not be the priority of the USCIS employees who are too worried about getting that new, hard to find gift for their kid!  Office parties and other holiday priorities will cause a slowdown, as it does in almost every job.

 

Early April and late June filers may have the advantage here.  Us early June filers are looking at 6 months for NOA2 and a difficult time trying to get interviews set in late December...

Edited October 16, 2017 by John & Rose

[John & Rose 7,239]

11 minutes ago, The Squirrel said:

Here is more to add to my argument of USCIS having approved many more cases than has been updated, this just in from May topic:

 

 

There is another case where the online update is a week behind the approval. We have no clue where they are, meaning they have updated the online status for cases from 1st to 8th, so it can very well be possible that they are at May 15th (middle of May!!!). Did I say "heads up my friends", the ball is rolling, coming our way!!

 

 

163 days for an April filer?  I wish I could be more optimistic but if April is at 163, it verifies my 180 for early June filers.

[DandY 134]

14 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

Us early June filers are looking at 6 months for NOA2 and a difficult time trying to get interviews set in late December...

Late December going to be more than difficult for us I think. We 1st week of June filers (and all June, but it will pick up a little so impact not as noticeable) will get hit by Thanksgiving while our petition is at USCIS or NVC--no way to avoid that that I can see. That means MNL number is likely not until the VERY end of November (like 30th) or early December. In either case, trying to then get an interview 30 days later around the holidays is going to be HAAAAARD. I think we have already flipped to interview in January.

 

Just as an FYI, my best case calculation right now (pending a MAJOR shift in processing) is 174 days--which for me is the Sunday after Thanksgiving, so it rolls to Monday. But with the impact of Thanksgiving, I have to add at least 3 more days, maybe more. So for me personally (June 5 filer), that means my 174-178 target likely roles to 178-182. OH MAN, I just agreed with you that mine will take 180. Now I'm depressed even more! D*** you John, D*** you to...

[Jaredmelody 34]

New here... anyone have any Estimate on NOA 2 for the first week of June noa1... thanks... I know its all over the place now... hahaha 

[June2017UK 430]

2 minutes ago, Jaredmelody said:

New here... anyone have any Estimate on NOA 2 for the first week of June noa1... thanks... I know its all over the place now... hahaha 

Look at @DandY’s post just above your one - he’s June 5th 

Edited October 16, 2017 by June2017UK

[John & Rose 7,239]

14 minutes ago, DandY said:

Late December going to be more than difficult for us I think. We 1st week of June filers (and all June, but it will pick up a little so impact not as noticeable) will get hit by Thanksgiving while our petition is at USCIS or NVC--no way to avoid that that I can see. That means MNL number is likely not until the VERY end of November (like 30th) or early December. In either case, trying to then get an interview 30 days later around the holidays is going to be HAAAAARD. I think we have already flipped to interview in January.

 

Just as an FYI, my best case calculation right now (pending a MAJOR shift in processing) is 174 days--which for me is the Sunday after Thanksgiving, so it rolls to Monday. But with the impact of Thanksgiving, I have to add at least 3 more days, maybe more. So for me personally (June 5 filer), that means my 174-178 target likely roles to 178-182. OH MAN, I just agreed with you that mine will take 180. Now I'm depressed even more! D*** you John, D*** you to...

Don't kill the messenger!!!   We all want this so bad but my day job has a lot of "managing expectations" in it.  I'd rather be upset one time about the 180 days than keep getting upset as we slip past 150...then 160...then 170...then 180

 

My mind has accepted the 6 months so the stress levels are down too.

 

I just responded to a post where the couple had NOA1 on 8/1/16 and NOA2 on 9/9/16.  They had to wait a whole 39 days for approval!

Edited October 16, 2017 by John & Rose

[John & Rose 7,239]

5 minutes ago, Jaredmelody said:

New here... anyone have any Estimate on NOA 2 for the first week of June noa1... thanks... I know its all over the place now... hahaha 

Welcome to the thread...we are anticipating 6 months.  I am hoping my June 6 NOA1 will be a December 6 NOA2.  Things are not moving very quickly these days.

 

Please fill in your timeline so we can help the people who filed after us track things a little closer.

Edited October 16, 2017 by John & Rose

[The Squirrel 1,318]

Love you @John & Rose, but 180 is far fetched . Why overthink simple evidence, they are on May 1st - May 8th, and today is 16th. They are back on schedule as per their output, hence November 16th we may expect June 1st to 8th. I am also arguing (at least) 7 days data entry work lagging on their end, hence not rocket science that we are well on our way.

 

42 minutes ago, DandY said:

OK, since I'm the realist, It is not necessarily our turn after they "touch" a petition from each remaining May day. Not all petitions from April or from the first 15 days of May have been worked and the bulk of them should come before the bulk of us. We will likely see some June "line jumpers" as we see in each month, but the bulk of June won't begin to be touched for a bit. 

 

As an aside, I not sure what you mean by the slow down Jan-Mar. The actual slow down happened early April. The backlog jumped and timelines increased then. Jan. filers were still getting done in an expected amount of time. The first people to feel a SERIOUS impact were March filers and the impact has been getting worse and worse.

 

 

 

 

Love when people use "realist" to mask their pessimism . So what am I then, a "fantasist", or "dreamer"? No, I am a "realist", and you and @John & Rose are a pessimists . Being that this is a forum based on love, naturally I don't mean anything bad about anyone.

 

And also you are totally incorrect about April slowdown. USCIS has a fiscal year starting on October 1st, hence they dropped down in production some 30%+ in the second quarter - Jan - Feb - Mar. Next quarter they were back to their regular output. Our quarter od April-May-June had least applications in a long time, hence draw your own conclusions. They are on their way to us !

 

 

 

[John & Rose 7,239]

13 minutes ago, The Squirrel said:

Love you @John & Rose, but 180 is far fetched . Why overthink simple evidence, they are on May 1st - May 8th, and today is 16th. They are back on schedule as per their output, hence November 16th we may expect June 1st to 8th. I am also arguing (at least) 7 days data entry work lagging on their end, hence not rocket science that we are well on our way.

 

 

Love when people use "realist" to mask their pessimism . So what am I then, a "fantasist", or "dreamer"? No, I am a "realist", and you and @John & Rose are a pessimists . Being that this is a forum based on love, naturally I don't mean anything bad about anyone.

 

And also you are totally incorrect about April slowdown. USCIS has a fiscal year starting on October 1st, hence they dropped down in production some 30%+ in the second quarter - Jan - Feb - Mar. Next quarter they were back to their regular output. Our quarter od April-May-June had least applications in a long time, hence draw your own conclusions. They are on their way to us !

 

 

 

I believe you are an optimist, DandY is the realist and I am the pessimist.  

 

Saying that they are "on" May 1st is a little deceiving.  There are hundreds of April, March and a few February filers who may argue with you.

 

The end of the fiscal year should not cause any slowdowns in their performances.  They review files and their bean counters track progress.  It is business as usual for the reviewers.  There are all kinds of excuses to use but "business as usual" has yet to be determined.  As I said in a previous post, in 2016 it took one non-expedited couple who filed in July only 39 days for NOA2.  Business as usual now is probably 150 to 170.  It seems like the difference between realist/optimist/pessimist is just 30 days!!!

 

We can disagree on the numbers but all of us here want this to move as quickly as possible.  We don't wish anyone journey should last a day longer than it does.  We just have different ways at looking at numbers.  We do know processing right now is around 400% slower than last year (yes, my numbers are skewed but it is true for at least one real case that I just saw).

 

I do agree that they are on their way to us.  Every second that ticks by is one second closer...

Edited October 16, 2017 by John & Rose

[Jaredmelody 34]

How do I put in my timeline... I'm June 5th NOA 1...thanks 

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 minute ago, Jaredmelody said:

How do I put in my timeline... I'm June 5th NOA 1...thanks 

Check out this thread...

 

 

 

[Larissa & Johnson 40]

2 hours ago, The Squirrel said:

@Deusebom and @loveneverfails17 just to let you know English is the only allowed language here, and your comments will be deleted. 

 

 

And more importantly, do not believe that we will be much beyond 160 days. The apparent slowdown was in the USCIS second fiscal quarter, that being January, February and March. That is where they slowed down, to a tune of 30%, throwing the "pending" number of cases from 15000 to 20000. Third quarter they got back on track and went to they standard 12,000+ cases done. Let's see what this week brings, today should be telling, it would take an average of 173 cases approved every day to get every single May case done including RFES (227 as of today), to be on June 1st on this date next month.  There is only 15 business days in May they haven't touched yet, then it is our turn.

 

Start getting ready boys and girls, we are soon to be up for happy life !

Wow I am sorry , I was pretty happy to find another portuguese speaker hehe 

I will follow the rulers =)

 

 

Wow That is a goood news!!! I can't wait, I am confident that we will hear news about June in November!! 

[June2017UK 430]

Optimists, pessimists, realists, dreamers, fantasists,.. whatever we think we are... I think we should do wager ‘just for fun’ on here.

So I’m predicting my case will either get an RFE or Approval in 166 days from its received date.. just before the Thanksgiving holidays.

 

@John & Rose is suggesting 183 days (6/6 -> 12/6)

What are everyone else’s predictions?