I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

[DandY 134]

1 hour ago, John & Rose said:

Tomorrow I can play bad cop!!!  You can have one day where you suspend reality and be the positive one!!!!  

Sorry, not trying to be too much of a bad cop. This is a hard enough process as it is, I just hate to see people have unrealistic expectations which will lead to greater disappointment.

 

USCIS killed all my optimism mid-September.

[millionaminute 43]

1 hour ago, loveneverfails17 said:

Well I cannot believe that I will be apart of my honey until January , unbelievable !!!

 

 

 

 

Well this site is the only lifeline to what's left of our sanity...you beat me by 1 day for the NOA1....June 6th...Nevada too.  Did you use Rapid visa?  They're office are here in Vegas...

[DandY 134]

1 hour ago, John & Rose said:

WOW...have my priorities and desires changed since June 6.  I went from our first white Christmas as a family to waiting for them to finish school!

Tell me about it. I was way more optimistic than you. (For those that have read this before, I apologize). I'm a "numbers guy" so I gathered a bunch of data before submitting looking at historical trends and all that. I entered thinking we should have an 87-89 day approval which might result in POE the week before Thanksgiving allowing my love to be here for a major convention of a shared hobby we have. I just thought "I really hope we are not one of those unfortunate souls that have a REEEEEEALLY long adjudication period--you know, like 110-120 days!" (Oh how young and naive I was.) Not being here for Christmas was not even in the real of possibility in my mind. It was TRULY edge cases that took that long from PH.

[Larissa & Johnson 40]

1 minute ago, millionaminute said:

 

 

 

Bem, este site é a única linha de vida para o que resta da nossa sanidade ... você me bateu por 1 dia para o NOA1 ... 6 de junho ... Nevada também. Você usou o visto Rapid? Eles estão no escritório aqui em Las Vegas ...

That's cool, I did by myself, I taught the process in Brazilian forums 

[millionaminute 43]

4 minutes ago, loveneverfails17 said:

That's cool, I did by myself, I taught the process in Brazilian forums 

Portuguese!  Most Americans think  people from Brazil speak Spanish.  Reading the conversations, I side with you, I hope for NOA2 November, just because processing slowed down doesn't mean it can't speed back up.  Can it get any worse?  (don't answer that question) approx 150 days would mean early November and enough time to get my Fiance here before Christmas.  

[DandY 134]

41 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

Unfortunately, this is probably the most accurate estimate out there

I'm arrogant enough to disagree.  

 

My algorithm has been tracking more accurately than VJs--they don't seem to factor in current trend info enough and couldn't understand the major shift in priorities. Mine was predicting 152 days when VJ was still in the 130s. There adjustments have been running 2-4 weeks behind mine. I'm now still almost 10 days more for early June filers than VJ is.

 

Given volume, trend, and historical data, (and assuming the current administration doesn't do anything that further impacts immigration) I'll say what I've said before, those with NOA1 dates in the first 2 weeks of June will have the longest average wait time for the entire year of 2017 and the longest in at least the last 4 years (I have not really pulled all the data for the DACA slow down to really see how long the wait was I only have some course grained data).

 

Apologies in advance for the following rant and I pray it does not start a flame war: I just find it so hard to believe family visas would not get some sort of priority just below humanitarian but WAAAAY above work. A person getting a work visa for the US can usually get work in their own country, they just make more here. Keeping families apart  for long times is kind of bizarre to me especially considering the party in power is purported to be the party of "family values". RANT OFF

[John & Rose 7,239]

11 minutes ago, DandY said:

Sorry, not trying to be too much of a bad cop. This is a hard enough process as it is, I just hate to see people have unrealistic expectations which will lead to greater disappointment.

 

USCIS killed all my optimism mid-September.

Yes. Part of me dies when a new user here talks about their already set wedding date in December when they filed in September. 

 

Maybe “good cop/bad cop” is a bad analogy. We do need to manage the new users expectations but deep down I really hope approvals pick up while knowing that they are going to slow down for the Holidays. 

 

On on the bright side it looks like CR1s are averaging only about 20 days longer than the K1...😂😂😂

[DandY 134]

1 minute ago, millionaminute said:

approx 150 days would mean early November and enough time to get my Fiance here before Christmas.  

May had a high volume of filers and they are already tracking to have an average well above 150 (by the time May is done, I think their average time will be around 162-164). Your hypothesis that it can speed up enough in less than 30 days is not born out by ANY data I can find as they would need to start processing almost 3 times as many per week than they have done in ANY week in the last 4 years.

 

OK, I'll stop trying to pop bubbles. I'm trying to be realistic here by reporting the numbers not crush hopes. I'm in the same situation as all of you. 

[John & Rose 7,239]

3 minutes ago, DandY said:

I'm arrogant enough to disagree.  

 

My algorithm has been tracking more accurately than VJs--they don't seem to factor in current trend info enough and couldn't understand the major shift in priorities. Mine was predicting 152 days when VJ was still in the 130s. There adjustments have been running 2-4 weeks behind mine. I'm now still almost 10 days more for early June filers than VJ is.

 

Given volume, trend, and historical data, (and assuming the current administration doesn't do anything that further impacts immigration) I'll say what I've said before, those with NOA1 dates in the first 2 weeks of June will have the longest average wait time for the entire year of 2017 and the longest in at least the last 4 years (I have not really pulled all the data for the DACA slow down to really see how long the wait was I only have some course grained data).

 

Apologies in advance for the following rant and I pray it does not start a flame war: I just find it so hard to believe family visas would not get some sort of priority just below humanitarian but WAAAAY above work. A person getting a work visa for the US can usually get work in their own country, they just make more here. Keeping families apart  for long times is kind of bizarre to me especially considering the party in power is purported to be the party of "family values". RANT OFF

So are we in agreement that 180 is probably the target at this point?  Early June to Early December for NOA2?  I’ve been leaning towards 180+ for a month or so. I suppose that means that I didn’t have much faith in the moving target that VJ has. 

[DandY 134]

6 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

Maybe “good cop/bad cop” is a bad analogy.

I knew what you meant, and it is not THAT bad of an analogy. Some day I gotta pop up to Chi and take my love to The Art Institute, when we do, you and Rose are going out with us for Pizza--my treat!

[millionaminute 43]

6 minutes ago, DandY said:

 

[John & Rose 7,239]

7 minutes ago, millionaminute said:

 approx 150 days would mean early November and enough time to get my Fiance here before Christmas.  

Add 50 to 60 days to schedule the interview and 10 more for AP and VOH and I think that Christmas is not even a possibility. If everything goes perfectly and is expedited, it is still almost beyond reach. Add in the holidays and the holiday slowdown and I honestly don’t see it happening. PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG!!!  I do hope that it works out for you. Just be prepared for a little more stress. 

[DandY 134]

3 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

So are we in agreement that 180 is probably the target at this point? 

My numbers don't quite put us to 180 yet, but looking at the rate May is getting worked (which I would describe as "abysmal") my gut tells me it is a very real possibility.

 

Hmmm, that gives me an idea, I was not factoring in how many are in the queue in front of us and applying the trend line to that. That would increase accuracy. Let me play with that a bit.

[John & Rose 7,239]

6 minutes ago, DandY said:

I knew what you meant, and it is not THAT bad of an analogy. Some day I gotta pop up to Chi and take my love to The Art Institute, when we do, you and Rose are going out with us for Pizza--my treat!

We have already accepted your invitation!!!  Since we will be the home team, I insist we treat this time!!!

 

Since Rose and the kids cant leave the country, I am hoping to show them America. Maybe we will all meet in Dallas...your treat!

Edited October 14, 2017 by John & Rose

[millionaminute 43]

me day 50