I-129F May 2017 Filers

[MorganAndres17 38]

5 minutes ago, K1VisaApplicant05 said:

you submitted DS-160 after NOA2, right? And also after NOA2 got to the NVC?

Yes and yes! You can complete the form but not submit it until you get the NVC number.

[Terri/Ed 55]

3 hours ago, Stela&Eli said:

Unfortunately after getting the NVC number NVC will tell you that there is no time frame for sending files to embassies or consulates....

We heard that several times

That is true ! We got our number as soon as it arrived at NVC and we are now on week 5 of it still being there under additional processing and they can not give you a time frame when you will be out ! I call every second day !

Noa2 May 10th

Noa2 Oct 10th

NVC receive Oct 19th 

[Daniel P 2,022]

So... this is the distribution and the Gauss curve for the number of days between received and approved cases, for the month of May 2017 (as to 11/20/2017). I left out seven cases that seemed to be expedites. Additionally, I only considered received cases, meaning I also left out some cases that had already been touched, like Date of Birth or Name updated cases. The remaining cases (and big majority) used for this calculations made a total of 1522.

 

Those 1522 cases gave a mean of 169.95 days from Received to Approval date, with a stardard deviation of 9.46 days.

 

That curve below is actually very useful to get some interesting probabilities. If we assumed that June is going to follow a not very different pattern than the previous month, we could say that, for example:

• The probability for a June filer to be approved in less than 160 days is only 14.65%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved between 160 and 180 days is 70.95%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 170 days is (an astonishing) 49.78%.
• Or that the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 180 days is (a still astonishing) 29.67%.

 

Hopefully the processing times will lower in the next months and we'll see how that curve will slowly be moving to the left and those percentages lower or raise in our favor. Fingers crossed!! 

 

 

[alik 104]

1 hour ago, Daniel P said:

So... this is the distribution and the Gauss curve for the number of days between received and approved cases, for the month of May 2017 (as to 11/20/2017). I left out seven cases that seemed to be expedites. Additionally, I only considered received cases, meaning I also left out some cases that had already been touched, like Date of Birth or Name updated cases. The remaining cases (and big majority) used for this calculations made a total of 1522.

 

Those 1522 cases gave a mean of 169.95 days from Received to Approval date, with a stardard deviation of 9.46 days.

 

That curve below is actually very useful to get some interesting probabilities. If we assumed that June is going to follow a not very different pattern than the previous month, we could say that, for example:

• The probability for a June filer to be approved in less than 160 days is only 14.65%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved between 160 and 180 days is 70.95%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 170 days is (an astonishing) 49.78%.
• Or that the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 180 days is (a still astonishing) 29.67%.

 

Hopefully the processing times will lower in the next months and we'll see how that curve will slowly be moving to the left and those percentages lower or raise in our favor. Fingers crossed!! 

 

 

Wow! This both cool and devastating for those of us waiting for over 180 days....

This totally sucks in fact 

We just hit day 185 

[Daniel P 2,022]

8 minutes ago, alik said:

Wow! This both cool and devastating for those of us waiting for over 180 days....

This totally sucks in fact 

We just hit day 185 

I'm sorry, that means that you belong to the unlucky 5.58% that will get approved after day 185.

[Daniel P 2,022]

I made a little mistake on the last probability, by the way. That one was meant for more than 175 days. For more than 180 days is 14.40%. Sorry.

[alik 104]

2 minutes ago, Daniel P said:

I'm sorry, that means that you belong to the unlucky 5.58% that will get approved after day 185.

That's why it's better to rely on being good rather than lucky!

But luck is soooo nice too when you do get lucky...

Thanks @Daniel P for you calculations

 

[Daniel P 2,022]

2 minutes ago, alik said:

That's why it's better to rely on being good rather than lucky!

But luck is soooo nice too when you do get lucky...

Thanks @Daniel P for you calculations

 

You're welcome!

[B0J 0]

1 hour ago, alik said:

Wow! This both cool and devastating for those of us waiting for over 180 days....

This totally sucks in fact 

We just hit day 185 

190days and still waiting.....

[AnaMolina 567]

5 hours ago, Daniel P said:

So... this is the distribution and the Gauss curve for the number of days between received and approved cases, for the month of May 2017 (as to 11/20/2017). I left out seven cases that seemed to be expedites. Additionally, I only considered received cases, meaning I also left out some cases that had already been touched, like Date of Birth or Name updated cases. The remaining cases (and big majority) used for this calculations made a total of 1522.

 

Those 1522 cases gave a mean of 169.95 days from Received to Approval date, with a stardard deviation of 9.46 days.

 

That curve below is actually very useful to get some interesting probabilities. If we assumed that June is going to follow a not very different pattern than the previous month, we could say that, for example:

• The probability for a June filer to be approved in less than 160 days is only 14.65%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved between 160 and 180 days is 70.95%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 170 days is (an astonishing) 49.78%.
• Or that the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 180 days is (a still astonishing) 29.67%.

 

Hopefully the processing times will lower in the next months and we'll see how that curve will slowly be moving to the left and those percentages lower or raise in our favor. Fingers crossed!! 

 

 

Nice! Did you use R for this histogram?

[Meech 442]

Does USCIS work today?

[Naes 12,205]

3 minutes ago, Meech said:

Does USCIS work today?

Officially yes but we are not expecting too much activity. Cause California normally has a holiday so people may have taken vacation to be with their families

[plyn1209 149]

Black Friday. 

Edited November 24, 2017 by plyn1209

[Naes 12,205]

5 minutes ago, plyn1209 said:

Black Friday. 

Do you think there's also a sale on noa2s?

 

Id like to buy in bulk please

[Swissmiss82 1,620]

2 minutes ago, Naes said:

Do you think there's also a sale on noa2s?

 

Id like to buy in bulk please

bwahahahaha you are too much though