I-129F March 2017 Filers

[TriloByte 1,818]

13 hours ago, twoDs said:

 

All signs point at them working on cases mostly for particular days, with a strong preference for days at the very end of March.

The average daily approval count before May 2nd was 80+. That's what people mean by the online system not being updated. The phone apps, scrapers, etc grab their data from one source, the online case checker. Back a few months ago I was writing my own application to scrape the information and was posting it to this forum daily until USCIS, for reasons we have yet to determine, stopped regularly updating approval on the case checker. For example, I have been approved for 2 months and my online case checker says "Received". 

 

My theory is that USCIS knew we were scraping, using these apps, and it was too much visibility into their mess over there at the pyramid, so they were instructed to stop updating the online case checker.

 

They are likely STILL approving 80+ a day, but we just have no visibility into it because they don't update online one the case checker, so we are in the dark.

Edited July 29, 2017 by TriloByte

[pajobra 1,395]

18 minutes ago, TriloByte said:

The average daily approval count before May 2nd was 80+. That's what people mean by the online system not being updated. The phone apps, scrapers, etc grab their data from one source, the online case checker. Back a few months ago I was writing my own application to scrape the information and was posting it to this forum daily until USCIS, for reasons we have yet to determine, stopped regularly updating approval on the case checker. For example, I have been approved for 2 months and my online case checker says "Received". 

 

My theory is that USCIS knew we were scraping, using these apps, and it was too much visibility into their mess over there at the pyramid, so they were instructed to stop updating the online case checker.

 

They are likely STILL approving 80+ a day, but we just have no visibility into it because they don't update online one the case checker, so we are in the dark.

I hope your right about that.

 

Day 138 and counting. Sighs oh well. I am now prepared to be flying out hopefully before Christmas. I would love to be able to spend Christmas with my sweetie. I know now I won't make his 50th Birthday mid October and my heart hurts because I really wanted to be there. Oh well next year is my 40th and I know I will be there then. LOL Of course if Montreal speeds up I might be ok and squeak in earlier. *crosses fingers* My Mum told me no matter the cost my Christmas/Wedding gift was that she would pay for me and my kitty to fly to Denver from Winnipeg.  I am going to miss my Mum so much. We were always close but we got closer when I moved in with her. Tomorrow I am driving her, my sister and niece into Winnipeg to visit family. So looking forward to that family time. My niece who is 11 is super excited because I love to go swimming and the hotel has a pool and so now she has someone to swim with. My sister and Mum are not swimmers. LOL She excitedly said to me yesterday oh Auntie you better have your swimsuit packed. I told her its already in my carry-on suitcase. She then danced around and said woohoo. I am gonna miss her. So glad I moved here 3 years ago because I got to spend tons of time with her. She is old enough to be alone now for a few hours but when I first moved she would come over after school every Monday and every Monday off school she spent with me. We spent tons of time baking and cooking and making memories. She also spent tons of time trying to get my cat to like her but nope Pixie still runs away if she gets too close. She allows her to come into the room as long as I am with her. LOL

[Marzena & Stephen 544]

136 days no noa2  and its the weekend booooo..  still hoping it comes next week 🤞  

[cherryblossoms916 216]

So it's weekend. Maybe next week for NOA2. Please Lord help us. 🙏🏻

[dkmfan85 832]

There's mail delivery today still for many people. In my old place, the mailman wouldn't stop by until 4-5 PM. Here, I usually get notification from Amazon between 10AM-Noon for USPS deliveries. Don't lose hope yet! Mondays usually have a whole bunch of NOA2s as well since mail is not delivered on Sunday, but the USPS still moves mail around to post offices.

[SimplyBlessed 65]

58 minutes ago, cherryblossoms916 said:

So it's weekend. Maybe next week for NOA2. Please Lord help us. 🙏🏻

Day 141 here

[cherryblossoms916 216]

6 minutes ago, SimplyBlessed said:

Day 141 here

Just keep your faith. We will pass through this. He will guide us. 

[twoDs 590]

3 hours ago, TriloByte said:

The average daily approval count before May 2nd was 80+. That's what people mean by the online system not being updated. The phone apps, scrapers, etc grab their data from one source, the online case checker. Back a few months ago I was writing my own application to scrape the information and was posting it to this forum daily until USCIS, for reasons we have yet to determine, stopped regularly updating approval on the case checker. For example, I have been approved for 2 months and my online case checker says "Received". 

 

My theory is that USCIS knew we were scraping, using these apps, and it was too much visibility into their mess over there at the pyramid, so they were instructed to stop updating the online case checker.

 

They are likely STILL approving 80+ a day, but we just have no visibility into it because they don't update online one the case checker, so we are in the dark.

 

We know for "fact" (quotes due to knowing USCIS lies) that the approvals were down 33% from calendar Q4 (10,179) to Q1 (6,864) -- remember the USCIS report is fiscal quarters. That works out to 113 per day to 76 per day. And there was a big backlog increase.

 

We do have some visibility due to VJ, but something very odd is going on here. Here's some wild statistics from the VJ database:

Oct-Dec 2016 NOA2s: 532 (v. USCIS 10,179, so 5.2%)

Jan-Mar 2017 NOA2s: 449 (v. USCIS 6,864, so 6.5%)

Apr-Jul 2017 NOA2: 795

 

Those are some strange, strange numbers imo. My bet is the people with slow approvals have been signing up. If not, then USCIS has been working on backlog this quarter and is processing more approvals than it has in the past year(!). Not sure I buy that.

 

The NOA1s in VJ are interesting as well:

Jun-Sep 2016: 809

Oct-Dec 2016: 862 (v. USCIS 12,837, 6.7%)

Jan-Mar 2017: 1179 (v USCIS 13,194, 8.9%)

Mar-Jun 2017: 704

 

The NOA1 coverage % seems to strongly support big growth in people signing up to VJ. If we use the Jan-Mar NOA1s participation on VJ as a proxy for Apr-Jul NOA2s, that suggests that currently USCIS is approving about 100 cases a day for fiscal Q2.

 

At this point, just looking at the last 11 NOA2s issued, I don't have a lot of doubt AnJ is right about USCIS gaming the numbers. We have 7 approvals for NOA1s 3/24 or newer and two for February and only one between those.

 

I think you're theory is right, they don't want us to see the man behind the curtain because they know it's show that they both greatly slowed approvals and that they're not processing things in order.

[SimplyBlessed 65]

1 hour ago, cherryblossoms916 said:

Just keep your faith. We will pass through this. He will guide us. 

Amen 

[AnJ Co 1,676]

4 hours ago, TriloByte said:

The average daily approval count before May 2nd was 80+. That's what people mean by the online system not being updated. The phone apps, scrapers, etc grab their data from one source, the online case checker. Back a few months ago I was writing my own application to scrape the information and was posting it to this forum daily until USCIS, for reasons we have yet to determine, stopped regularly updating approval on the case checker. For example, I have been approved for 2 months and my online case checker says "Received". 

 

My theory is that USCIS knew we were scraping, using these apps, and it was too much visibility into their mess over there at the pyramid, so they were instructed to stop updating the online case checker.

 

They are likely STILL approving 80+ a day, but we just have no visibility into it because they don't update online one the case checker, so we are in the dark.

 

56 minutes ago, twoDs said:

 

We know for "fact" (quotes due to knowing USCIS lies) that the approvals were down 33% from calendar Q4 (10,179) to Q1 (6,864) -- remember the USCIS report is fiscal quarters. That works out to 113 per day to 76 per day. And there was a big backlog increase.

 

We do have some visibility due to VJ, but something very odd is going on here. Here's some wild statistics from the VJ database:

Oct-Dec 2016 NOA2s: 532 (v. USCIS 10,179, so 5.2%)

Jan-Mar 2017 NOA2s: 449 (v. USCIS 6,864, so 6.5%)

Apr-Jul 2017 NOA2: 795

 

Those are some strange, strange numbers imo. My bet is the people with slow approvals have been signing up. If not, then USCIS has been working on backlog this quarter and is processing more approvals than it has in the past year(!). Not sure I buy that.

 

The NOA1s in VJ are interesting as well:

Jun-Sep 2016: 809

Oct-Dec 2016: 862 (v. USCIS 12,837, 6.7%)

Jan-Mar 2017: 1179 (v USCIS 13,194, 8.9%)

Mar-Jun 2017: 704

 

The NOA1 coverage % seems to strongly support big growth in people signing up to VJ. If we use the Jan-Mar NOA1s participation on VJ as a proxy for Apr-Jul NOA2s, that suggests that currently USCIS is approving about 100 cases a day for fiscal Q2.

 

At this point, just looking at the last 11 NOA2s issued, I don't have a lot of doubt AnJ is right about USCIS gaming the numbers. We have 7 approvals for NOA1s 3/24 or newer and two for February and only one between those.

 

I think you're theory is right, they don't want us to see the man behind the curtain because they know it's show that they both greatly slowed approvals and that they're not processing things in order.

This is what it's like when two statisticians get together and talk.....  Meanwhile - I'm over here in the corner 'Hey, what about them Dolphins?'  lol

 

It's really nice to have some smart guys hanging out here.   Thanx for posting your works and thoughts

 

[jtona 98]

Well, on my way for a 2 week visit in the Philippines to see my fiancé and baby....

 

Woke up this morning to goto airport and checked my email, and was Very SURPRISED to see an USPS informed MAIL DELIVERY email with a USCIS LETTER delivered..

 

Ran downstairs to check my mail and , Surprise!!., my NOA2 has arrived...WE ARE APPROVED...

 

120 days  according  to the Visa journey timeline....what a great surprise to get to show her the letter when I arrive 14 hours from now .....

[twoDs 590]

6 minutes ago, jtona said:

Well, on my way for a 2 week visit in the Philippines to see my fiancé and baby....

 

Woke up this morning to goto airport and checked my email, and was Very SURPRISED to see an USPS informed MAIL DELIVERY email with a USCIS LETTER delivered..

 

Ran downstairs to check my mail and , Surprise!!., my NOA2 has arrived...WE ARE APPROVED...

 

120 days  according  to the Visa journey timeline....what a great surprise to get to show her the letter when I arrive 14 hours from now .....

Congrats!

 

Another winner from the 3/27 club, we've had a lot of those this week.

[jtona 98]

Thank you.....I meant to add..I checked the USCIS website to see if it updated my petition ,but it still shows up as status Received .........

 

So mail is the only way I know its is approved..

 

[AnJ Co 1,676]

30 minutes ago, jtona said:

Well, on my way for a 2 week visit in the Philippines to see my fiancé and baby....

 

Woke up this morning to goto airport and checked my email, and was Very SURPRISED to see an USPS informed MAIL DELIVERY email with a USCIS LETTER delivered..

 

Ran downstairs to check my mail and , Surprise!!., my NOA2 has arrived...WE ARE APPROVED...

 

120 days  according  to the Visa journey timeline....what a great surprise to get to show her the letter when I arrive 14 hours from now .....

Congratulations!!  What a nice present to take with you to PH

 

[AnJ Co 1,676]

23 minutes ago, twoDs said:

Congrats!

 

Another winner from the 3/27 club, we've had a lot of those this week.

Yep, Just what I was thinking too.  

Next week the April filers are going to be happy when the bingo balls start coming up with april receive dates.