Length of time in AP

[RobertM54 36]

So, if an application goes into AP for no stated reason other than they need time to evaluate it, then does probability of approval decrease over time? 

 

One poster on a Russian language Web site wrote:  "if you are in AP it's like a 50% chance of being approved after 60 days then 25% after 90 days and the 10% chance after 120 days".

 

Any thoughts?

[vogann 221]

I can't tell for sure, but I think difference in age may have played a role her.. Especially if it's over 15 years difference.

[Unlockable 7,314]

Ask the person in the Russian forum to share his calculations and sources on that theory.

 

Hoenstly it is all speculation. There are people who had been in AP for over a year and got approved.

[harvardiv 5]

I was curious and I did a study of administrative cases on vj, and noticed a trend in non-middle eastern countries which indicated that most ap cases lasted for 2 weeks to 60 days.  Then I noticed that after 60 days there are a lot of people who did not show on the website that the AP situation ever ended.  So from 60 days or greater it does appear that there were less successful cases.  Correct me if I am wrong.

[RobertM54 36]

AP is very country specific. I am almost certain that Ukraine is a country that puts petitions in long term AP to die. If they do not have enough reason to reject a petition they do not like, they put it in AP and wait for the petitioner to give up. It is not possible to compare RUB to countries where there are very legitimate reasons for extended AP. In Ukraine, if your petition has enough red flags, you end up in AP purgatory. The relationship nannies in the embassy do not understand that a 60 plus year old individual like me does not have time to meet the asinine "legitimate relationship" criteria. So instead of continuing to work into my late 60s and paying my $50K+ per year in taxes, I am going to retire early and become a burden to the country.

 

You guys who think I dodged a bullet with my fraught relationship may be right in the long term, but in the short term, if she were here, I bet I would still be productive in 4 years. Instead I am binge watching NCIS and drinking too much.

Edited January 27, 2017 by RobertM54

[aaron2020 11,651]

The Russian poster is full of it.  Ask for a source.