I-751 August 2016 Filers

[Zombie69 363]

4 hours ago, WinnfieldJules said:

We are june CSC filers

Cool, good luck, please let us know if you hear anything.

[Zombie69 363]

18 hours ago, nightingalejules said:

Yay Approvals!  Boo 11months!

I hope you are right. 

[Eliis 8]

On 4/24/2017 at 5:38 PM, itiosso said:

What do you mean CSC have basically stopped processing? Is there any evidence or concrete information regarding "the stopped processing"? If there is one or a few August filers being approved it kinda goes against the idea they have stopped processing. 

 

I try to put myself in the shoes of USCIS government employees and all the bureaucracy they have to deal with and possible short staff departments, imagine all the paperwork and scrutiny they have to apply and go through every single day. 

 

If it's true an August filer has been approved then each day that passes means higher hopes for all of us. That's the way I see it... 

I don't personally get it why you are saying that.  You still have to remember they are paid workers, not volunteers. 99% of working people has to deal with a lot of stuff every single day at work. 

 

Edited April 26, 2017 by Eliis

[Zombie69 363]

On 4/26/2017 at 10:35 AM, Eliis said:

I don't personally get it why you are saying that.  You still have to remember they are paid workers, not volunteers. 99% of working people has to deal with a lot of stuff every single day at work. 

 

A May appplicant is still waiting, if we go by the individual cases, it will drive us crazy. We just have to keep waiting.

[charmander 692]

On 4/25/2017 at 1:02 AM, nightingalejules said:

While I will admit that I didn't see much progress in the forums last week, the week or so before that there were a whole bunch of June CSC filers approved, and May applications are starting to get approved at VSC. I suspect that one way or another, USCIS is putting pressure on VSC to get caught up to CSC (and might, to be honest, be holding back approvals at CSC until VSC is caught up. You can never guess at their motives. 

Since people on VJ have not been updating their timelines (they're pretty good about updating in the monthly threads, but not the timelines, which is where the data is gathered to populate VJ's processing times charts), and (more importantly) since we at VJ (and, by extension, Trackitt) represent a tiny, probably statistically insignificant segment of the people filing I-751 it's hard to really have a sense of what's happening at USCIS.

 

For example: in 2013, the year I applied for CR1, there were 248,322 people who became LPRs using the spousal visa. Let's assume 25% of them were CR1s as opposed to IR1s. (Which is a pretty conservative estimate) So 62000 people had to file I751s in 2015. That's about 5167 per month. In my monthly I-751 forum there are about 45 people on the spreadsheet. So that's 0.8% of applicants. Not really very many, if we're trying to figure out the larger pattern.

You could use this website for the actual numbers. https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-all-uscis-application-and-petition-form-types

Numbers are released quarterly and it goes back to 2012. Basically divide by 3 for monthly estimates. That being said unfortunately CSC vs VSC data is unavailable but CSC gets more I-751 workload than VSC. But my guess is ~65% CSC vs 35% VSC. I think day-to-day comparison is useless for the same reason you point out only a very small group posts timeline here however weekly numbers should reflect the averages well.

 

There is also an app (Case Tracker&Searcher by Stephen Aldous) that lets you input your receipt number, a specified range, and it shows the the status of that many receipts closest to yours. With that app, you could increase the pool size and only check people who filed on very similar dates to yours. I should say however I didn't see any trend in dates of approvals. When I did this myself last year, my case was approved on 3/28/2016, there were people maybe 40-50 receipt numbers in my proximity some were approved beginning of February, and some were still pending. Nevertheless, it was good to see when they started to process numbers close to your number.

 

 

[nightingalejules 678]

1 hour ago, charmander said:

You could use this website for the actual numbers. https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-all-uscis-application-and-petition-form-types

Numbers are released quarterly and it goes back to 2012. Basically divide by 3 for monthly estimates. That being said unfortunately CSC vs VSC data is unavailable but CSC gets more I-751 workload than VSC. But my guess is ~65% CSC vs 35% VSC. I think day-to-day comparison is useless for the same reason you point out only a very small group posts timeline here however weekly numbers should reflect the averages well.

 

There is also an app (Case Tracker&Searcher by Stephen Aldous) that lets you input your receipt number, a specified range, and it shows the the status of that many receipts closest to yours. With that app, you could increase the pool size and only check people who filed on very similar dates to yours. I should say however I didn't see any trend in dates of approvals. When I did this myself last year, my case was approved on 3/28/2016, there were people maybe 40-50 receipt numbers in my proximity some were approved beginning of February, and some were still pending. Nevertheless, it was good to see when they started to process numbers close to your number.

 

 

Cool, thanks for the link!! So last fiscal year there were not 62000 (my conservative estimate was VERY conservative) but instead 144,648 i-751 applications, or 12,054 per month, give or take. Our month's data is now not .8% of the total but .37%. The other useful piece of data is that throughout the whole year, they adjudicated 2,264 fewer petitions than they received, which accounts for the slowly backsliding times.

The good news is that only 8,096 out of the 142,384 files that were processed were denied - so only one half of one percent (.5%) of applications that were processed were not ultimately approved. Which is good news!

 

Edited April 27, 2017 by nightingalejules

[Eliis 8]

2 hours ago, Zombie69 said:

A May appplicant is still waiting, if we go by the individual cases, it will drive us crazy. We just have to keep waiting.

Honestly it drives me crazy and I am only close to 2 months waiting. In 2015 it was 3 months( processing time). Now they saying 1-1.5 year. 

[AustinCanada 681]

52 minutes ago, nightingalejules said:

The good news is that only 8,096 out of the 142,384 files that were processed were denied - so only one half of one percent (.5%) of applications that were processed were not ultimately approved. Which is good news!

0.5% rejection rate!?    

That's good to hear!   So it's just a waiting game for us!  

[WinnfieldJules 17]

2 hours ago, AustinCanada said:

0.5% rejection rate!?    

That's good to hear!   So it's just a waiting game for us!  

That's actually a 5.6% rate, ain't it?

[Zombie69 363]

3 hours ago, Eliis said:

Honestly it drives me crazy and I am only close to 2 months waiting. In 2015 it was 3 months( processing time). Now they saying 1-1.5 year. 

I hear you, I feel you, I was at your place last Year, but you will get there, we are all waiting. Keep the faith and hang in there.

[AustinCanada 681]

11 minutes ago, WinnfieldJules said:

That's actually a 5.6% rate, ain't it?

Yep, it's 5.6% rejection rate!     I didn't do the math!   

 

I can't assume that my case won't be rejected since 5.6% is a lot higher than 0.5%!  

[charmander 692]

Yes it is 5% denial rate but you should know this includes everything from failure to file I-751 within the 90 day window, not showing up to biometrics or interview, failure to respond RFE, these happen from time to time, just use the search function, you'll find VJ stories on these. Then there are actual denials where the waivers dominate. Say the couple gets separated only one or two months after AOS, the petitioner pretty much has nothing to show they were in a bona-fide marriage, etc.The actual denial rate for jointly filed petitions the denial rate is much lower than that, I think I've only seen once in this forum a jointly filed case was denied for a still-married couple, where the CPR was sending her entire paycheck to her home country, hence attracted a lot of suspicion. I don't remember seeing any other jointly filed petition that got denied.

[Zombie69 363]

2 hours ago, charmander said:

Yes it is 5% denial rate but you should know this includes everything from failure to file I-751 within the 90 day window, not showing up to biometrics or interview, failure to respond RFE, these happen from time to time, just use the search function, you'll find VJ stories on these. Then there are actual denials where the waivers dominate. Say the couple gets separated only one or two months after AOS, the petitioner pretty much has nothing to show they were in a bona-fide marriage, etc.The actual denial rate for jointly filed petitions the denial rate is much lower than that, I think I've only seen once in this forum a jointly filed case was denied for a still-married couple, where the CPR was sending her entire paycheck to her home country, hence attracted a lot of suspicion. I don't remember seeing any other jointly filed petition that got denied.

Exactly. There are so many reasons that will cause the denial. If you send in as much evidence as you can, than you should be fine. I wouldn't go to the dark place now and start worrying about the possibility of being denied. Been waiting for almost 9 months, and it is frustrating, but I keep telling myself that there's nothing much we can do except wait and wait. I would start getting a bit concerned and more alert if we still don't hear from them after a year a 2 months or so.. At this point, for us, we are still within the normal processing time frame regardless how slow it has been unfortunately..Keep the faith i guess and just keep waiting like we have been...

Edited April 28, 2017 by Zombie69

[nightingalejules 678]

Sorry guys! Bad, bad decimal place positioning! Mea culpa.

[Zombie69 363]

No updates, no nothing. Has USCIS come to a full stop??