Live Brexit Thread

[Sousuke 1,214]

Its looking close!

[Sousuke 1,214]

Remain a member of the European Union

49.3%

259,790

Leave the European Union

50.7%

266,721

[OriZ 3,157]

live dashboard(I'm following it together with market futures):

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

Remarkably slow reporting so far, especially since Sunderland voted resoundingly to exit, much higher margin than expected. Newcastle came 10 points light on bremain, polling was +12 and only won by 2. I smell a rat.

Edited June 24, 2016 by OriZ

[Sousuke 1,214]

Not good. The Leave side is starting to open up and its not geography either since scotland has reported as much as england.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

So what happens if they leave. I have been seeing Brexit on the net, I just realized what it is.

[Sousuke 1,214]

Haha Gibraltar voted to stay.

So what happens if they leave. I have been seeing Brexit on the net, I just realized what it is.

Well for one, markets are going to give all of today's gains at more IMO.

[OriZ 3,157]

As I keep saying in my thread, what markets will do in coming years is pretty much baked in the cake and independent of this or that happening. However, oftentimes markets wait for a trigger to be the spark that lights the fire. If they vote to exit, it could be it, or it could panic for 3 days and then go back to la la land. There's really no telling.

So far only about 5% of votes in, but a 6% lead for brexit.

[yuna628 9,676]

So what happens if they leave. I have been seeing Brexit on the net, I just realized what it is.

Well, if it happens..

Since sterling has already about fallen off a cliff right now, start thinking about things money losing a significant amount of value, recessions, inflation, housing market collapse... that's just the UK of course.. global markets will be affected. Cameron will be out, and a new vote will be held.

Scotland may decide to hold another vote and pull out of the UK, which could inspire others to do so. It could also inspire more referendums in other countries and a collapse of the EU entirely.

TTIP will be coming into play eventually.

If Leave is successful, look for a bad day on the market..

[OriZ 3,157]

Getting tighter now less than 1% for brexit. This will go back and forth all night.

[Sousuke 1,214]

Getting tighter now less than 1% for brexit. This will go back and forth all night.

Alot more of scotland came in thats why.

[ExPatty 502]

I hope they vote to leave and if I were in England still it would be my vote. The kumbaya let's all hold hands rubbish touted by the progressive political class has gone crazy in recent years and hopefully this would be a step away from that for England, while as in the past the rest of Europe burns. That is, however, assuming that leaving will actually be a step toward a stronger border. But at least it will give the elected officials more direct power.

Enough experts think it would be bad for the economy at least short term that I'm inclined to believe them (though "disaster" as some predict seems hyperbolic). I would be willing personally to suffer some financial loss for a stronger sovereignty, though, and I would move in a similar direction in the US. I really believe borders have meaning.

But, to be honest, I've not paid much attention to Brexit and can't say anything more than the two paragraphs ahead

[OriZ 3,157]

Alot more of scotland came in thats why.

Yup, back to a 7% gap now.

[OriZ 3,157]

I hope they vote to leave and if I were in England still it would be my vote. The kumbaya let's all hold hands rubbish touted by the progressive political class has gone crazy in recent years and hopefully this would be a step away from that for England, while as in the past the rest of Europe burns. That is, however, assuming that leaving will actually be a step toward a stronger border. But at least it will give the elected officials more direct power.

Enough experts think it would be bad for the economy at least short term that I'm inclined to believe them (though "disaster" as some predict seems hyperbolic). I would be willing personally to suffer some financial loss for a stronger sovereignty, though, and I would move in a similar direction in the US. I really believe borders have meaning.

But, to be honest, I've not paid much attention to Brexit and can't say anything more than the two paragraphs ahead

I support brexit as well. I think the whole EU needs to be revamped for one. Besides that, could it add to some hardship? Yeah, but we're headed that way anyway. At the end of the day alot more is going to be blamed on that when all is said and done than its actual share in things, though. Similar to the way today everyone blames Lehman's collapse for everything that happened in 08-09, which is a load of rubbish. Or, blaming the recession following the dot com bubble's bursting on 9/11 even though the decline started one year prior(in both cases).

So in short - leaving will hurt, but not as much as feared, and, in the long run be beneficial. Also adding another pin to pop this bubble cannot be a bad thing. Bubbles are bad things and the longer they last, the more severe the punishment afterwards. It's kinda like ripping off a bandaid. Lets get it over and done with already.

Edited June 24, 2016 by OriZ

[OriZ 3,157]

If anyone is interested, futures as well:

http://www.investing.com/

[Sousuke 1,214]

I support brexit as well. I think the whole EU needs to be revamped for one. Besides that, could it add to some hardship? Yeah, but we're headed that way anyway. At the end of the day alot more is going to be blamed on that when all is said and done than its actual share in things, though. Similar to the way today everyone blames Lehman's collapse for everything that happened in 08-09, which is a load of rubbish. Or, blaming the recession following the dot com bubble's bursting on 9/11 even though the decline started one year prior(in both cases).

So in short - leaving will hurt, but not as much as feared, and, in the long run be beneficial. Also adding another pin to pop this bubble cannot be a bad thing. Bubbles are bad things and the longer they last, the more severe the punishment afterwards. It's kinda like ripping off a bandaid. Lets get it over and done with already.

I don't think this will cause a recession (except for within the UK). For one, its going to take a long time to properly disconnect from the EU and the UK government still has alot of power to determine exactly what the final agreements are.

IMO tomorrow and next week are going to be bad marketwise here in the US but thats about it.

Of course I do think we will see a recession soon...but not for a few more quarters and like you said unrelated to the UK.

Edited June 24, 2016 by Sousuke