AOS June 2016 Filers

[pochemuchka 2]

Okay so I'm a little confused about my case. We filed I-765, I-131 and I-485.

I-765 & I-131 were last touched on 7/24/16 - 9 days after biometric appointment and still just has the message of:

"On June 16, 2016, we received your Form I-765, Application for Employment Authorization , Receipt Number MSC1691208232, and sent you the receipt notice that describes how we will process your case. Please follow the instructions in the notice. "

While the I-485 was last touched 8/11/2016, with a message of:

"As of August 11, 2016, we are ready to schedule your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or to Adjust Status, Receipt Number MSC1691208230, for an interview. We will schedule your interview and send you a notice. Please follow any instructions in the notice. "

Does this mean that the green card interview will be sometime soon? Still have not received the combo card in the mail, will that even come before the interview?

[Moslund 94]

Okay so I'm a little confused about my case. We filed I-765, I-131 and I-485.

I-765 & I-131 were last touched on 7/24/16 - 9 days after biometric appointment and still just has the message of:

"On June 16, 2016, we received your Form I-765, Application for Employment Authorization , Receipt Number MSC1691208232, and sent you the receipt notice that describes how we will process your case. Please follow the instructions in the notice. "

While the I-485 was last touched 8/11/2016, with a message of:

"As of August 11, 2016, we are ready to schedule your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or to Adjust Status, Receipt Number MSC1691208230, for an interview. We will schedule your interview and send you a notice. Please follow any instructions in the notice. "

Does this mean that the green card interview will be sometime soon? Still have not received the combo card in the mail, will that even come before the interview?

Not necessarily all that means is you're documents are fine and your ready t k be scheduled for an interview... It all comes down to your local office... If you local office is back logged a month then you should hear something within a month, if it's backlogged 6months then expect an interview then and so on... It is all based off your local office when you will get an interview some are backlogged a month some 6 months some a year... And yes it's a high probability you wil get your EAD card in before your interview most people wait atleast a few months for there interview letter Edited August 17, 2016 by Moslund

[p-ana 933]

Okay so I'm a little confused about my case. We filed I-765, I-131 and I-485.

I-765 & I-131 were last touched on 7/24/16 - 9 days after biometric appointment and still just has the message of:

"On June 16, 2016, we received your Form I-765, Application for Employment Authorization , Receipt Number MSC1691208232, and sent you the receipt notice that describes how we will process your case. Please follow the instructions in the notice. "

While the I-485 was last touched 8/11/2016, with a message of:

"As of August 11, 2016, we are ready to schedule your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or to Adjust Status, Receipt Number MSC1691208230, for an interview. We will schedule your interview and send you a notice. Please follow any instructions in the notice. "

Does this mean that the green card interview will be sometime soon? Still have not received the combo card in the mail, will that even come before the interview?

It can take a while to get an interview scheduled. It will depend on your local office and their workload, if they're backed up, etc. Mine didn't take much, but there are people from March still waiting at other offices, for example.

Ead and AP takes around 90 days to get approval. It can take longer, sometimes is faster. Just yesterday, day 90, my ead changed to card being produced. Nothing on the AP. Some people get their after interview, pointless, right?

Patience... It's all waiting now.

Good luck

[Muresha 8]

Congratulations to those who started receiving their EADs. That is exactly what we want to hear :)

Last month, most EADs (and APs) seemed to take 90+ days for adjudication by the USCIS. Is there a new trend for less than 90 days (e.g. around 80-85 days?). Or am I misinterpreting based on a few cases reported here?

I've looked at the VisaJourney statistics for EAD which currently shows at 88 days. However, I know there is a bit of a lag between updating cases on VisaJourney and these changes resulting in a significantly change in the statistics.

Simon.

Thank you, Simon)!

Actually, it is easy to forecast the approval date (with 1 - 2 days accuracy), using Visajourney data and case tracker application. I did the same with the date of K-1 approval and was perfectly accurate( I also have Scientific Degree and Statistics is one of my favorites ) ). In my opinion, I wouldn't rely on average reported statistics, use signature information and case tracker.

Also, don't waste your time for Service Request, it doesn't make any influence on EAD.

Good luck to everyone:)!

[D&H 2]

Thank you, Simon)!

Actually, it is easy to forecast the approval date (with 1 - 2 days accuracy), using Visajourney data and case tracker application. I did the same with the date of K-1 approval and was perfectly accurate( I also have Scientific Degree and Statistics is one of my favorites ) ). In my opinion, I wouldn't rely on average reported statistics, use signature information and case tracker.

Also, don't waste your time for Service Request, it doesn't make any influence on EAD.

Good luck to everyone:)!

Can you explain a little more about how you use the Case Tracker to determine approval dates? Are you just searcing 200 at a time, and seeing when you find cases that are approved?

[Moslund 94]

Thank you, Simon)!

Actually, it is easy to forecast the approval date (with 1 - 2 days accuracy), using Visajourney data and case tracker application. I did the same with the date of K-1 approval and was perfectly accurate( I also have Scientific Degree and Statistics is one of my favorites ) ). In my opinion, I wouldn't rely on average reported statistics, use signature information and case tracker.

Also, don't waste your time for Service Request, it doesn't make any influence on EAD.

Good luck to everyone:)!

its hard to forecast an approval date firstly my EAD according to VJ date was meant to be approved first week in june then it changed to mid june then start of july but it didn't get approved until mid of july... Even then in July when it got approved VJ stats said i should of got an approval start of july which was incorrect cause it was already the mid of july... I did not have a RFE or anything hindering my case to be off the trusted VJ stats... VJ data gets updated once a month if im correct (i could be wrong) also VJ data is only based off users who input data on there timeline... so just say out of ALL applicant in the month on june only 5% of those applicant use VJ and input there data how can you predict the circumstance of the other 95% of applicants country wide who dont use VJ to predict there approval date will be 1-2days off VJ statistics... I can see using statistics if you knew guaranteed that more than 50% of all applicants country wide used VJ and all of them inputted on there timeline... I do agree with you that using case tracker can help to give you an idea of when you case may be approved since you can see when cases around you start changing to approved

Edited August 17, 2016 by Moslund

[Muresha 8]

Can you explain a little more about how you use the Case Tracker to determine approval dates? Are you just searcing 200 at a time, and seeing when you find cases that are approved?

Yes, sure) As I know, you don't have any RFEI, so case tracker is perfect for you. Track EAD approves without RFIE based on I-485 and their date (that means I-765 should go after I-485 strictly, don't use data from I-765 scopes, USCIS usually approves them much earlier). By using this method you can easily see everyday updates, when you case is going to be approved. USCIS doesn't have any preferences, all cases go for approval in strict order.

Best regards)!

[sharon_helena 11]

Pfff this process is so frustrating at the beginning of the month USCIS started a service request because I didn't receive my Biometrics appointment (this is luckily solved now) but now i'm waiting for a Tier 2 officer to call me back within an hour because I still receive errors for all my case numbers at the USCIS website (57 days since they received the package).

Yesterday I went for the 6th time to the local social security office. The Social security card that was mailed to us at the end of June got lost in the mail, due to a mistake they made with our address. So I had to apply for a new one in July (4 weeks ago) but now the guy at the office told us that this card can't be processed because my I-94 is expired. But at the time of the second application I still had 20 days left before the expiration of the I-94. This social security guy wanted us to go to the office of Homeland Security in Columbia, SC because he was sure they could do something about it. Luckily we called this office first and the lady on the phone had never heard about an I-94 form and she said I had to call USCIS. So we called USCIS and they said that the social security should be processed but that it can take up to 10 weeks and we will be moving within 2 weeks

[simonschus 58]

Yes, sure) As I know, you don't have any RFEI, so case tracker is perfect for you. Track EAD approves without RFIE based on I-485 and their date (that means I-765 should go after I-485 strictly, don't use data from I-765 scopes, USCIS usually approves them much earlier). By using this method you can easily see everyday updates, when you case is going to be approved. USCIS doesn't have any preferences, all cases go for approval in strict order.

Best regards)!

I was mostly just hoping to start a discussion about progress but I love a good chat about statistical modelling!

Haha yes, I predicted my K1 data to the very day using the VisaJourney predictions too - specifically, using the date that was predicted on the timeline function with VisaJourney However, I don't think prediction and exact statistical modelling predictions is *as* easy for adjustment of status (and associated factors). I think that there are significantly more factors involved that could affect the modelling which I'll outline.

The tables I've produced in this thread are intentionally focused on describing the current state of play rather than trying to predict the future. I'm not saying inferential statistics can't be used to predict the future; far from that, statistics can predict the future and often are successful assuming the base data and a range of assumptions are well-understood and reflect the reality and likely pressures exerted. I wouldn't want to put the USCIS case tracker data into a statistical model given that it seems that I-765 and I-131 cases are all put in to the same pot irrespective of whether they're renewals, for an adjustment from a K1, for an adjustment from another type of visa. Equally, the cases on the case tracker don't have 'history' (you wouldn't necessarily know whether the case was approved from an RFE, was the result of an expedite unless you tracked across multiple time points). Add in that there are more things that could *go wrong* with an AOS case and that lead to an RF(I)E. Its not impossible, but I think there is a lot more noise that could make statistical predictions about AOS cases (including I-131 and I-765) significantly harder to make compared to filing the I-129F. As for the VisaJourney timeline functions, I think Moslund offered a good summary of the problems associated with making inferences from that - namely that we don't know whether the base data is representative or not (admittedly, we have no significant reason to assume that it isn't representative on dimensions that will directly affect the case; it is difficult to tell: people off of VisaJourney and similar websites could make fewer mistakes because they rely more on lawyers or make more mistakes because they don't have access to as substantial knowledge resources; similarly, there may a motivation-for-accuracy variance too).

Saying that... I agree with you Muresha entirely that we can get a *rough* idea of when others are getting approved which could be used to infer something about your EAD/AP cases. For example, not many are approved around mine so I'm going to infer that those cases have been reached yet (with the cases that have been approved being for renewals, replacements documents, expedites, and also approvals related to random error). Whereas if one was to look 20 or so days ago... there are many more EAD/AP approvals so it would be reasonable to suggest that they are moving through and I might have to wait another couple of weeks before they reach my case. Beyond that, I think it'd be difficult to predict the exact day... but possibly have a good guess at the exact 1-week or 2-week period.

All-in-all, thinking this through has been a fascinating way for me to spend the past half-hour thinking this through Hopefully it wasn't too boring for anybody else to read my post (and if it was, please do feel free to hide/block me!). There are much more important things going on that reading my post though, for example the post from sharon_helena above. I'm sorry I help with that :/ (though I am surprised that they made you re-apply and didn't just offer a change of address form with the same SSN).

Simon.

Edited August 17, 2016 by simonschus

[CLDubsFL 3]

Hi guys,

I'm a June filer as well. I've done the biometrics and now I'm waiting.

I was curious to know how was your biometrics experience. I read in another thread that some people had the fingerprints for every finger taken, while I just had only one fingerprint of one finger done. How was it for you? Every finger or only one?

[Muresha 8]

I wouldn't want to put the USCIS case tracker data into a statistical model given that it seems that I-765 and I-131 cases are all put in to the same pot irrespective of whether they're renewals, for an adjustment from a K1, for an adjustment from another type of visa. Equally, the cases on the case tracker don't have 'history' (you wouldn't necessarily know whether the case was approved from an RFE, was the result of an expedite unless you tracked across multiple time points). Add in that there are more things that could *go wrong* with an AOS case and that lead to an RF(I)E. Its not impossible, but I think there is a lot more noise that could make statistical predictions about AOS cases (including I-131 and I-765) significantly harder to make compared to filing the I-129F. As for the VisaJourney timeline functions, I think Moslund offered a good summary of the problems associated with making inferences from that - namely that we don't know whether the base data is representative or not (admittedly, we have no significant reason to assume that it isn't representative on dimensions that will directly affect the case; it is difficult to tell: people off of VisaJourney and similar websites could make fewer mistakes because they rely more on lawyers or make more mistakes because they don't have access to as substantial knowledge resources; similarly, there may a motivation-for-accuracy variance too).

Before using, statistical data should be "cleaned", that is why I looked only to "clear" cases, without any RFIE, you can't assume how long does it takes to respond and get accepted it by USCIS. Of course, there is always an exception for every rule, which (as we say in Ukraine) only proves the rule. It is always fun to play with numbers, isn't it?)

[simonschus 58]

Hi guys,

I'm a June filer as well. I've done the biometrics and now I'm waiting.

I was curious to know how was your biometrics experience. I read in another thread that some people had the fingerprints for every finger taken, while I just had only one fingerprint of one finger done. How was it for you? Every finger or only one?

For my biometrics, I had:

- my fingerprints taken for all fingers/thumbs on both hands (i.e. not just a single finger)

- a photograph being taken

- my signature recorded on an electronic touchscreen

I was adjusting my status from a K1 and this was my first biometrics appointment for US immigration purposes (just in case it makes a difference). It was walk-in at an ASC in Chicago late-June 2016. My biometrics appointment letter had 'Code 3' written at the top. Perhaps it makes a difference if you have already had biometrics taken for immigration purposes?

To help you, there was an interesting set of posts recently that might be of use. Maybe your biometrics appointment letter didn't have 'Code 3' but has something like 'Code 1' or 'Code 2' written at the top. These will be better than me speculating:

Code number on Biometrics Appointment Letter

Weird Biometric Appointment for EAD and AOS

Other than that, I can't be much more help but I hope I was useful in some capacity!

Simon

Edited August 17, 2016 by simonschus

[SR_ZJ 4]

Does anyone know how long the background check takes?

Does anyone know how long the background check takes?

[simonschus 58]

Before using, statistical data should be "cleaned", that is why I looked only to "clear" cases, without any RFIE, you can't assume how long does it takes to respond and get accepted it by USCIS. Of course, there is always an exception for every rule, which (as we say in Ukraine) only proves the rule. It is always fun to play with numbers, isn't it?)

Agreed :) :) Thank you for a fascinating mini-chat!!!! :)

[SR_ZJ 4]

How long does the background check take?