Warriors-Thunder Is The Strongest Conference Finals Matchup In Decades

[Rob L 3,811]

All season long, the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs seemed to be on an irreversible collision course. Both were historically dominant, and it seemed a practical certainty that they would eventually meet in a Western Conference finals for the ages. The Warriors did their part, beating the Portland Trail Blazers in five despite missing Steph Curry for the better part of the series.

But the Oklahoma City Thunder shocked the Spurs, knocking San Antonio out of the playoffs with a 113-99 victory Thursday night. After all the buildup and all the hypotheticals, there will be no epic Warriors-Spurs showdown. And given the Spurs’ preseason hype — as well as the extraordinarily high level at which they operated all season long — San Antonio’s second-round ouster has to be seen as an historic disappointment. But NBA fans can take solace: The Thunder ought to give the Warriors a terrific series, too.

I have a point system for rewarding playoff success based on how far a team advances in the playoffs (and how many teams it had to beat out to get there). Every team starts with 33 initial points, or 1,000 times one-thirtieth (there are 30 teams, so at the beginning of the season every team has a 1-in-30 chance of winning the title). By qualifying for the postseason, a team increases its chances from 1-in-30 (3.3 percent) to 1-in-16 (6.25 percent), so it gets a 29-point bonus just for making the playoffs. And from there, it’s all about advancement. Win a first-round series? Get 63 bonus points. Advance to the conference finals? Tack on 125 more. Make it to the NBA Finals? Grab 250 points. And win the chip? That’s a 500-point prize. (This means the NBA champion gets exactly 1,000 points for its playoff run.)

So San Antonio only gets a playoff score of 125 points for all its trouble this season — an absurdly low total for a team with its +11.3 efficiency differential. Excluding the 2015-16 Spurs, teams with an efficiency margin of +10 or better since 1983-84 averaged a playoff score of 859.6, which is somewhere between a championship victory and a Finals loss. The previous low playoff score for a +10 team was 250, achieved by the 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers, but even they managed to make the conference finals. San Antonio didn’t even get that far.

VIDEO: Neil Paine explains how disappointing the Spurs’ loss was

So NBA fans are going to be deprived of that long-anticipated Warriors-Spurs battle. But look on the bright side: the Warriors-Thunder series is also shaping up to be a classic. In fact, according to the pre-series Elo ratings(which estimate each team’s strength at any moment), it’s the single best-looking conference finals matchup since 1984:

YEAR

CONF

TEAM

ELO RATING

OPP.

ELO RATING

HARMONIC MEAN

2016

West

Warriors

1800

Thunder

1734

1766

2012

West

Spurs

1763

Thunder

1707

1735

1996

East

Bulls

1802

Magic

1671

1734

1998

West

Jazz

1717

Lakers

1745

1731

1986

East

Celtics

1777

Bucks

1679

1727

2015

West

Warriors

1787

Rockets

1670

1726

2001

West

Spurs

1732

Lakers

1713

1722

2009

East

Cavaliers

1765

Magic

1679

1721

1998

East

Bulls

1758

Pacers

1680

1718

1997

East

Bulls

1785

Heat

1647

1713

2002

West

Kings

1709

Lakers

1713

1711

2009

West

Lakers

1742

Nuggets

1680

1710

1993

East

Knicks

1696

Bulls

1724

1710

2008

West

Lakers

1724

Spurs

1690

1707

2010

East

Magic

1782

Celtics

1636

1706

2003

West

Spurs

1731

Mavericks

1681

1706

2005

West

Suns

1719

Spurs

1689

1704

1992

East

Bulls

1755

Cavaliers

1649

1701

1997

West

Jazz

1755

Rockets

1648

1700

2011

East

Bulls

1698

Heat

1697

1698

2000

West

Lakers

1722

Blazers

1667

1694

2014

West

Spurs

1707

Thunder

1682

1694

1996

West

SuperSonics

1713

Jazz

1669

1691

1991

West

Blazers

1696

Lakers

1681

1688

2011

West

Mavericks

1698

Thunder

1678

1688

2010

West

Lakers

1657

Suns

1718

1687

2013

West

Spurs

1668

Grizzlies

1701

1684

2004

West

Timberwolves

1674

Lakers

1684

1679

1989

West

Lakers

1674

Suns

1684

1679

2013

East

Heat

1773

Pacers

1592

1678

1985

West

Lakers

1748

Nuggets

1613

1678

1992

West

Blazers

1683

Jazz

1660

1671

2004

East

Pacers

1678

Pistons

1662

1670

2005

East

Heat

1696

Pistons

1641

1668

2008

East

Celtics

1668

Pistons

1666

1667

1999

West

Spurs

1711

Blazers

1624

1667

1989

East

Pistons

1767

Bulls

1576

1666

1990

East

Pistons

1686

Bulls

1646

1666

2006

West

Mavericks

1713

Suns

1618

1664

1985

East

Celtics

1680

76ers

1644

1662

1984

East

Celtics

1685

Bucks

1638

1661

1987

East

Celtics

1677

Pistons

1642

1659

1990

West

Blazers

1670

Suns

1647

1659

1988

East

Celtics

1633

Pistons

1677

1655

2007

West

Spurs

1693

Jazz

1617

1654

2012

East

Heat

1669

Celtics

1638

1653

1995

West

Spurs

1711

Rockets

1599

1653

1994

East

Knicks

1655

Pacers

1643

1649

2015

East

Hawks

1614

Cavaliers

1679

1646

1994

West

Rockets

1646

Jazz

1642

1644

1986

West

Lakers

1682

Rockets

1605

1643

1999

East

Pacers

1669

Knicks

1615

1641

2007

East

Pistons

1665

Cavaliers

1617

1641

1991

East

Bulls

1727

Pistons

1558

1638

1988

West

Lakers

1648

Mavericks

1620

1634

2006

East

Pistons

1653

Heat

1611

1632

1993

West

Suns

1630

SuperSonics

1632

1631

1995

East

Magic

1623

Pacers

1632

1627

1987

West

Lakers

1716

SuperSonics

1532

1619

2001

East

76ers

1581

Bucks

1634

1607

2000

East

Pacers

1619

Knicks

1595

1607

2002

East

Nets

1580

Celtics

1613

1596

2003

East

Pistons

1587

Nets

1596

1592

1984

West

Lakers

1624

Suns

1557

1590

2014

East

Pacers

1554

Heat

1626

1589

The best conference finals matchups, according to Elo

Since NBA adopted current playoff structure in 1984.

SOURCE: BASKETBALL-REFERENCE.COM

(To give credit to series where both teams were strong — instead of cases where one of the teams propped up the overall average — I used theharmonic mean, a special type of average that penalizes low outliers.)

Not every series that looks great on paper ends up delivering on its promise. But with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook facing a healthy Steph Curry and the rest of the record-setting Dubs, nobody outside Texas should complain about the Spurs’ early absence from the playoffs.

Check out our latest NBA predictions.

[X Factor 1,112]

I am looking forward to this match-up and a long series. The winner will be favored against the Cavaliers especially if it is the Warriors.

[Transborderwife 4,666]

Well go Raptors

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

I don't follow hockey

[Jacque67 7,328]

Go Warriors. Curry!!!!!!!!

[We Keep Receipts 9,238]

I see a Curry/James match again...

[Rob L 3,811]

Well go Raptors

Bonne Chance, 4 % Chance exactly

[Transborderwife 4,666]

Bonne Chance, 4 % Chance exactly

I predicting 5 games. 4-1 Cleveland

[Rob L 3,811]

Disappointed in the first game okc/gsw

[Jacque67 7,328]

Noooooo! Cmon gsw!

[We Keep Receipts 9,238]

Looks like OKC isn't going down without a fight...

[Jacque67 7,328]

Game 2 on Wednesday.

[Jacque67 7,328]

Gsw in the lead!!

[X Factor 1,112]

GSW blowing them out in 3 rd quarter

Cavaliers should sweep

[Jacque67 7,328]

Yippee! Great job, Curry!!!!!!