"You can't believe how bad it's going to get"

[LaL 418]

ET,

Hovnanian's recent press release pointed to the Cape Coral market as being ground zero for their worst performing markets.

well I don't doubt that at all. Cape Coral was a hot bed for the new retirees for a few years and was moving in somewhere around 100+ families a DAY. my friend took advantage early on and had a lovely 1600 sq ft home built for 85K only in a year to see it inflate to 220K. unbelieveable. the lot behind them with a finished home is empty - buyer backed out, never sold. They have several lots around them with foundations only and the contractors are gone. it didn't just slow down, it screeched to a halt. I believe now they are just seeing some building again recently, but it was a good year while absolutely nothing happened.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

I read an article somewhere about neighborhoods like that. The ones that are part-built or only part-sold because they started too late and then the housing slump started before they could unload everything. But it was in reference to developments from the 80s that ran into the slump of their time. It drew an interesting picture of how quickly neighborhoods like that degrade... once builders decide to offload them at any price ... imagine living in the projects. If I find it, I'll post it.

[LaL 418]

thats a scary possibility i hadn't thought of *any price*... the subdivision i was looking at for new construction was out in BFE Tampa area East is still going UP in price. I couldn't believe it. its a 1% increase for all properties. ooook thanks but no thanks!

Tampa is definately adjusting though. the homes in my neighborhood were up around 220K at the height (not mine i need some work done )... now they are selling (IF they sell in any reasonable amount of time) for around 160-180. this neighborhood are all about location though, so hopefully it will hold in that region.

it is unnerving though.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Yeah, people who have been through it before are telling me that the real risk is in areas that people wouldn't want to live in during 'normal' (i.e.non-boom) times and new developments that don't have a stable and settled population.

There's a development like that down the road from me. It's half-empty and eventually the builders are going to have to get rid of it and take a charge on their statements. The town is nice and desirable but the units are too small for this area and most of them are unsold.

Edited March 16, 2007 by Gupt

[doodlebug 3]

So if my house goes from say $450k down to $200k and I have a mortgage of about $230k, ####### will happen?

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

So if my house goes from say $450k down to $200k and I have a mortgage of about $230k, ####### will happen?

If you don't sell, nothing happens. If you sell, you will be expected to pay off your mortgage at closing.

ETA: Or, your lender may agree to accept less than what you owe at closing. Banks don't like to foreclose so if the difference is small they may agree to do that. But if they agree to it, it is possible they will report the difference to the IRS and that will count as taxable income.

Edited March 16, 2007 by Gupt

[doodlebug 3]

Ok phew. I thought maybe the mortgage company had the right to revalue the house and up the mortgage or something. I won't be moving till my kids graduate hs which is ten or so years from now so hopefully it will go down and back up in that time.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Ok phew. I thought maybe the mortgage company had the right to revalue the house and up the mortgage or something. I won't be moving till my kids graduate hs which is ten or so years from now so hopefully it will go down and back up in that time.

No they don't have the right to do that. All price decreases do to current homeowners who don't plan to sell is reduce their ability to extract equity. And possibly reduce their ability to refi.

Edited March 16, 2007 by Gupt

[MPGGPM 0]

Sounds like when it happens.........it'll be a great time to buy

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Yeah, bottoms are great times to buy for those who have the cash and the jobs. Problem is, bottoms tend to coincide with high unemployment.

[doodlebug 3]

I feel bad for my next door neighbors. They bought the house in Jan '06. Refininshed the basement in Feb '06. Massive flood on mothers day of that year. July '06 the guy lost his job so they put the house up for sale and it's still on the market now without so much as a bite. To make matters worse last week or so both my house and his had a flood so now they have to fix up the basement again with money they don't have. The guy looks stressed!!!!!

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Next home I buy is going to be on a slab. I have developed a real distaste for basements.

[ceriserose 1]

Next home I buy is going to be on a slab. I have developed a real distaste for basements.

No basement in ours. I don't miss it at all!

[William33 110]

I feel bad for my next door neighbors. They bought the house in Jan '06. Refininshed the basement in Feb '06. Massive flood on mothers day of that year. July '06 the guy lost his job so they put the house up for sale and it's still on the market now without so much as a bite. To make matters worse last week or so both my house and his had a flood so now they have to fix up the basement again with money they don't have. The guy looks stressed!!!!!

Maybe he should consider dumping the house, before the market takes a dump on him?

[Sofiyya 1,687]

Next home I buy is going to be on a slab. I have developed a real distaste for basements.

No basement in ours. I don't miss it at all!

Buy a penthouse!