"You can't believe how bad it's going to get"

[Jenn! 918]

I hope it deflates rather than pops, but it's going to have to come down sometime soon no matter what. People my age (27) are going to want to buy houses for when they have kids and we just don't have the kind of capital to compete with the boomers.

[almaty 19]

My sentiments exactly. Then my fiance and I will actually be able to get a house. YIPPEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If the trend continues for another year or so, I just might be able to afford that dream apartment I always wanted.....

Now THAT looks like a fantastic place. Good Luck!!!

i agree...makes me thinks there is a civilization in nyc

[ajames79 0]

I hope it deflates rather than pops, but it's going to have to come down sometime soon no matter what. People my age (27) are going to want to buy houses for when they have kids and we just don't have the kind of capital to compete with the boomers.

Totally agree! I am 28.

When Chris gets here we are looking to buy a house together.

But wow some of those prices out there! I am shocked!

[junglee069 0]

when is this 40-50% discount happening. i'm waiting for it so i can buy a damn house!

[Fandango 1,440]

I can't see 40-50%. Nope.

[Trompe le Monde 1,107]

I can totally see it in LA - hte average price of a home where I live is $800k (a nice, but not super-wealthy part of LA). The average HH income in my zip code is something like $75k. Even 6 figure DINKs can't affford to buy here (but rent is pretty affordable and also rent-controlled) so I don't see how it can continue without a major correction

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

I can totally see it in LA - hte average price of a home where I live is $800k (a nice, but not super-wealthy part of LA). The average HH income in my zip code is something like $75k. Even 6 figure DINKs can't affford to buy here ...

Same is true in suburban NJ. The crash is going to be quite severe in some neighborhoods. The newer developments in my neck of the woods, where all the units are 1100 sq ft or less condos, not within walking distance of mass transit, those all seem to be 1/2-empty. And the people who bought there are either investors or people who had no business buying at those prices in the first place (100% financing, interest-only or even neg am ARMs, etc.). Those developments are going to crash big-time. I was speaking to a neighbor recently who purchased a 2-br condo in a neighboring town back in the 80s. The RE crash of that decade saw his 220k home drop to 100k.

[Sofiyya 1,687]

I've been working and living in Colorado for the past two years, and it has the highest foreclosure rate in the country. They're still building, tho.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

From Bloomberg:

Pacific Investment Management Co., the fund manager that first predicted a collapse in U.S. home prices almost two years ago, said today that losses on subprime mortgage will spread to other ``aggressively underwritten'' loans.

[...]

Pimco forecast U.S. median home prices will fall by 4 to 5 percent this year.

[...]

``Due to the multiplier effect that a slowdown has on consumption, it is likely that the impact on the economy will be even more substantial,'' the company said in its report.

[...]

Home values as measured by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's U.S. House Price Index will drop by 1 percent, Pimco said. The last time that index, based on repeated appraisals of the same houses, fell was in December 1994.

``We believe that we are in the middle of a downturn, not at the end, and that the problems created by expensive housing, overstretched consumer finance and years of Fed tightening have yet to take their full toll on the U.S. housing market,'' Pimco analysts said in a report.

[...]

Executive vice president Mark Kiesel said in June that he had sold his Southern California home and moved to an apartment.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

I can't see 40-50%. Nope.

I agree. Not as long as we book a net gain of a 1,000 residents / day here in the sunshine state. Hope the legislator gets this property tax mess cleaned up a bit this session. Keep the hurricanes moving up the east coast and die in the cold Atlantic like they did last sason (which would keep the insurance cost in check) and we should be in rather good shape down here. Tampa ain't exactly a bubble to begin with. St Pete might be but not my neck of the woods.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

ET,

Hovnanian's recent press release pointed to the Cape Coral market as being ground zero for their worst performing markets.

[junglee069 0]

ET,

Hovnanian's recent press release pointed to the Cape Coral market as being ground zero for their worst performing markets.

i don't believe you.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/conte...0309_845022.htm

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

ET,

Hovnanian's recent press release pointed to the Cape Coral market as being ground zero for their worst performing markets.

Yeah, my area sure ain't Cape Coral. I know that some of the areas, even here around the bay, have exploded during the last few years and will see, shall we say, adjustments - some of them sort of violent even.

For my house, I paid about what I would have paid in Cincinnati, OH for a comparable home. Got me a fixed rate loan for it. Not looking to leave here any time soon. While I know that a lot of folks are and should be, I really ain't that worried.

Edited March 16, 2007 by ET-US2004

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Yeah I recently refi'd to a fixed rate myself. Was a 5/1 ARM before, dumb decision in hindsight. So I'm going to stay put for a while, they're planning on bringing mass transit within walking distance of my home so no good reason to leave, this location will be perfect once that happens.