The Economist rates the Election of Donald Trump a risk equal to the threat of jihadi terrorism

[Rob L 3,811]

“It’s highly unusual, and I don’t think we ever have done it where we’ve had a single politician be the center of our risk items,” said a member of the Economist Intelligence Unit on Donald Trump. | AP Photo

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/economist-trump-presidency-global-risk-220887#ixzz44gK67k4T
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A Donald Trump presidency poses a top-10 risk event that could disrupt the world economy, lead to political chaos in the U.S. and heighten security risks for the United States, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Electing Trump could also start a trade war, hurt trade with Mexico and be a godsend to terrorist recruiters in the Middle East, according to the latest EIU forecasts.

The well-respected global economic and geopolitical analysis firm put a possible Trump presidency in its top 10 global risks this month, released Wednesday. Other risks include a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy, a fracture of the Eurozone, and Britain's possible departure from the European Union.

Trump’s controversial remarks on Muslims would be a gift to “potential recruiters who have long been trying to paint the U.S. as an anti-Muslim country. His rhetoric will certainly help that recruiting effort,” said Robert Powell, global risk briefing manager at EIU.

Until Trump, the firm had never rated a pending election of a candidate to be a geopolitical risk to the U.S. and the world. The firm has no plans to include Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz or John Kasich on future risk lists.

“It’s highly unusual, and I don’t think we ever have done it where we’ve had a single politician be the center of our risk items,” Powell said in an interview, but noted that the firm has once included the transition at the top of the Chinese Communist Party as a top-ten risk as well.

“Innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr. Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress,” wrote EIU. But “such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.”

And there are also serious risks to the global economy if Trump is elected, warned EIU, a sister company to The Economist.

“The prospects for a trade war are quite high,” said Powell. “Why is a guy who has many of his goods made in China wanting to start a trade war in China?”

One difficulty in assessing Trump’s policy positions is that “he does tend to shift his opinions like the weather,” Powell said.

Powell also remarked upon Trump's calls for a more aggressive campaign against the Islamic State terrorist group, also known as ISIL or ISIS.

“One of [Trump’s] extreme positions has been to invade Syria to wipe out ISIS,” he said, citing estimates finding that a year-long excursion in Syria of 20,000-30,000 U.S. troops could cost $25 billion.

Trump has vowed to seize Syria's oil fields and refineries, which help keep ISIS afloat, and then sell the oil to pay for a U.S. military campaign. But Powell said that at current oil prices, if the U.S. actually stole the oil, it would only net about $500 million, at most.

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source https://gfs.eiu.com/Archive.aspx?archiveType=globalrisk

April 2016

• China experiences a hard landing
• Russia's interventions in Ukraine and Syria precede a new "cold war"
• Currency volatility culminates in an emerging markets corporate debt crisis
• Beset by external and internal pressures, the EU begins to fracture
• "Grexit" is followed by a euro zone break-up
• Donald Trump wins the US presidential election
• The rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilises the global economy
• The UK votes to leave the EU
• Chinese expansionism prompts a clash of arms in the South China Sea
• A collapse in investment in the oil sector prompts a future oil price shock

[eieio 1,594]

Virtually every expert has been wrong in predicting anything about Trump. I see no reason why this group is any different. The smart money says they are wrong.

[ready4ONE 5,400]

Virtually every expert has been wrong in predicting anything about Trump. I see no reason why this group is any different. The smart money says they are wrong.

On this, I think I will run with the experts views from the OP. Donald Drumpf is a conman, a shyster, a joke candidate that has far outlasted any humorous aspects of the now long running joke. He will turn friendly Nations into enemies and bond current enemies into alliances.

His stated plans are so unrealistic, and so often backtracked upon that there is no way to predict what Herr Drumpf would do once in office but he would not have support from Republicans or Democrats in any way, shape or form.

The 'brilliant' business man would shut down the economy and commerce in the event of overseas terrorist attacks. Herr Drumpf has said that.

Herr Drumpf would make abortion illegal and punish women who get them performed. Herr Drumpf has said that and his backtracking doesn't fix his original message. Herr Drumpf is a knuckle dragging neanderthal in regards to the abortion issue, long since settled law of the land.

Herr Drumpf will build a spectacular wall, make Mexico pay for it, because, you know, Mexico is just sending us their rapists. He's sort of sure 'some' of them are good people though. Maybe. But the entire idea is impractical and pandering to the fringe racists and never ever going to happen.

I could go on but honestly Donald Drumpf is the sickest joke ever purpetrated on the American people.

"Better Ted than dead"

[eieio 1,594]

Well...you are free to vote for the candidate of your choice.

Otherwise....just more blah,blah,blah...I hate trump...blah,blah,blah.

[ExPatty 502]

Utterly impossible to quantify.

[Janelle2002 3,865]

Conservative Chrisharia is what we'll have under trumpled...

[ready4ONE 5,400]

Well...you are free to vote for the candidate of your choice.

Otherwise....just more blah,blah,blah...I hate trump...blah,blah,blah.

As opposed to I just love Donald Drumpf no matter what garbage spews forth from his mouth? That blah blah blah is getting stale too.

I assure my vote, and the vote of every other sane American will not be going to Herr Drumpf.

Utterly impossible to quantify.

The damage Herr Drumpf would do? Agreed! The mind shudders.

[eieio 1,594]

You are free to live in fear!

[ready4ONE 5,400]

You are free to live in fear!

That's your job. I don't fear Donald Drumpf will be our next President. That's highly unlikely. I do share the OP opinion on what a dangerous disaster he would be if the 'what if' he were to pull off getting his little bitty fingered hands on the nuclear football though.