Conflicting Processing Time Estimates

[jzvonek 0]

Hello,

I am confused as to how long it takes to receive the NOA2 from a service center. The estimated processing time for the California Service Center is five months. However, my timeline on this website estimates that I should have received the NOA2 last week. I called the CSC today, and they estimated the end of June (5 months). Which one is correct?

My timeline estimate on visajourney is three months faster than the official estimate from the CSC?!

-John

[Pennycat 880]

Hello,

I am confused as to how long it takes to receive the NOA2 from a service center. The estimated processing time for the California Service Center is five months. However, my timeline on this website estimates that I should have received the NOA2 last week. I called the CSC today, and they estimated the end of June (5 months). Which one is correct?

My timeline estimate on visajourney is three months faster than the official estimate from the CSC?!

-John

The USCIS site isn't really an estimate. It is telling you what their goal time is (5 months) and that they are within that goal time.

Read the "instructions for using this chart" above the chart. It says "If the field office or service center is meeting its goal for processing a form, you will find the timeframe listed in months. For example, if the office is processing Form N-400 naturalization applications in five months or less, then the chart will say "5 months."." However, if the office is experiencing a processing delay, you will find the filing date of the last case that the office completed before updating the chart."

That means that if you see something like "5 months" it means that (1) their "goal" is do it it in 5 months or less and that (2) they are meeting that goal. If you see a date, that means that they are beyond their goal, and that date is how far they've gotten (as of the date the chart was published, which if you look closely will always be 6 weeks or more ago, rendering the chart completely useless).

So for your i-129f at CSC, they are reporting that their goal is 5 months and they are meeting that goal. The people on the phone at USCIS can't tell you any more that that.

Here at VJ, we collect user-input data so we can get a clearer picture of reality. VJ shows an average of 49 days. 49 days is within 5 months, so the USCIS site is correct, as are the people on the phone. You will hear within 5 months. But from VJ we know that you will hear much sooner than 5 months.

Why doesn't USCIS do this themselves? Well, because if they provided an accurate report/estimate, everyone who is a nanosecond beyond the average or estimate would be calling off the hook demanding to know why their application is stalled. That happens here basically every day, and less than 5% of K1 applicants ever even come this this site. They don't want to deal with it, so they give themselves a nice comfortable "goal" time and stay within it.

Also keep in mind that the VJ estimate is an ESTIMATE and it is based on averages. Average is average. That means that half will be faster and half will be slower. It is not a guarantee, just an idea.

Edited March 15, 2016 by CatherineA

[Kastrs 723]

USCIS never reports processing times under their goal-which is 5 months for your petition type. So they will report 5 months if it is taking 5 months or 5 days. The estimates on this site are from a sample of petitions, and are generally reasonably accurate provided there is enough data points. Keep in mind the dates on VJ are estimates, they are not a rule for the date you will have communication from USCIS. You should be getting your NOA2 soon.

[IcezMan_IcezLady 582]

the estimate here is based on timelines. You get better estimate when more people actually would fill out their timelines. And I also agree with the above comments..Give it a week or 2.

[Pitaya 2,577]

~Moved from K1 Process to K1 Progress Forum~

~Inquiry about case status~

[jzvonek 0]

Thank you everybody for the quick responses! It's much clearer now.

-John