Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices

[Rob L 3,811]

By NATE SILVER

Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, during a Republican presidential debate in Houston last month.

MICHAEL CIAGLO-POOL / GETTY IMAGES

If we woke up one day and found that the daytime sky had permanently turned from blue to orange, we’d eventually get used to it. That wouldn’t make it any less strange, however.

So even though the battle between Donald Trump and the Republican “establishment”¹ has been a story since the summer, we should still pause now and again to gawk at the spectacle. On Thursday, Mitt Romney, the previous Republican presidential nominee and the closest thing the GOP has to a party elder, denounced Trump in the strongest possible terms. Trump responded by making what sounded to me like a ####### reference.

This is really happening. At least I think.

But as spectacular as the clash between Trump and Republican “party elites” has become, the coverage of it tends to obscure another, perhaps equally important part of the story. Trump does not just divide rank-and-file voters from Republican poo-bahs. He’s also extremely divisive among Republican voters, much more so than a typical front-runner. In exit polls so far, only 49 percent of Republican voters say they would be satisfied with Trump as their nominee — remarkable considering Trump’s lead in votes and delegates. But compounding the GOP’s problems, Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz would leave only slightly more Republican voters happy.

Sean Trende, at Real Clear Politics, wrote about these satisfaction numbers earlier, so my goal here is not to duplicate his work but to provide some additional context. Specifically, it’s to point out that what we’re seeing among the Republican electorate this year is not remotely normal.

The exit polls have asked Republican voters in seven states — here’sTennessee, for example — whether they’d be satisfied if each of Cruz, Rubio and Trump won the nomination. Remember, these are actual voters — voters who gave Trump a win in six of the seven states where the exit poll asked this question — and not some hypothetical universe of “likely voters.” On average, just 49 percent of these actual Republican voters said they’d be satisfied with Trump. The numbers for the other two candidates were better, but not by much: 53 percent of voters said they’d be satisfied with Rubio, and 51 percent with Cruz.

SHARE OF REPUBLICANS SATISFIED WITH CANDIDATE AS NOMINEE DATE STATE CRUZ RUBIO TRUMP 2/9/16 New Hampshire 38 41 51 3/1/16 Alabama 49 47 56 Arkansas 57 58 46 Georgia 55 55 53 Tennessee 50 54 53 Texas 68 59 43 Virginia 43 59 44 Average 7 states 51 53 49 Many Republicans would be dissatisfied with Trump, Cruz or Rubio

SOURCE: NATIONAL ELECTION POLL EXIT POLLS

You might wonder whether this sort of thing always happens during a nomination campaign. The short answer is that it doesn’t. By comparison, 79 percent of Democrats this year have said they’d be satisfied with Hillary Clinton as their nominee, while 62 percent have said so of Bernie Sanders.

Eight years ago, the battle between Clinton and Barack Obama was much tenser. With a few notable exceptions in Appalachia, however, both Clinton and Obama were widely acceptable to Democrats in 2008. On average in the 35 states where the exit polls asked the question, 69 percent of Democrats said they’d be satisfied with Obama as their nominee, while 71 percent said so of Clinton:

SHARE OF DEMOCRATS SATISFIED WITH CANDIDATE AS NOMINEE DATE STATE CLINTON OBAMA 1/26/08 South Carolina 77% 83% 1/29/08 Florida 80 70 2/5/08 Alabama 70 69 Arizona 74 70 Arkansas 83 47 California 76 70 Connecticut 72 73 Delaware 70 69 Georgia 64 79 Illinois 60 78 Massachusetts 78 70 Missouri 67 74 New Jersey 73 66 New Mexico 73 72 New York 78 67 Oklahoma 67 49 Tennessee 76 61 Utah 68 78 2/9/08 Louisiana 63 64 2/12/08 Maryland 69 79 Virginia 64 82 2/19/08 Wisconsin 68 82 3/4/08 Ohio 73 66 Rhode Island 75 63 Texas 70 66 Vermont 70 82 3/11/08 Mississippi 58 69 4/22/08 Pennsylvania 73 64 5/6/08 Indiana 67 66 North Carolina 63 69 5/13/08 West Virginia 74 42 5/20/08 Kentucky 76 43 Oregon 70 79 6/3/08 Montana 67 74 South Dakota 76 69 Average 35 states 71 69 In 2008, most Democrats were happy with both their choices

SOURCE: NATIONAL ELECTION POLL EXIT POLLS

How about the Republican race in 2012? The exit polls posed the satisfaction question in only four states, and Romney’s numbers weren’t great. But they were still much better than Trump’s. On average, 63 percent of Republicans said they’d be happy with Romney as their nominee.²

SHARE OF REPUBLICANS SATISFIED WITH CANDIDATE AS NOMINEE DATE STATE GINGRICH ROMNEY SANTORUM 1/10/12 New Hampshire 35% 61% 38% 1/31/12 Florida 54 65 53 3/13/12 Mississippi 66 57 67 4/3/12 Wisconsin 67 60 Average 4 states 52 63 55 Republicans were relatively satisfied with Romney in 2012

SOURCE: NATIONAL ELECTION POLL EXIT POLLS

I also looked up these numbers for the 2004 Democratic and the 2008 Republican races, elections that bear some similarity to this year’s Republican race because there was no clear front-runner early on. Although it took a while for John Kerry and John McCain to catch on with voters, they eventually became very popular. In 2004, an average of 79 percent of Democrats said they’d be satisfied with Kerry as their nominee, while 77 percent of Republicans said so of McCain in 2008.

Not only is Trump’s 49 percent satisfaction rating lower than any recent party nominee’s, it’s also lower than almost all the losers’. Rick Santorum in 2012 was more widely acceptable than Trump, for example. The only exception was Ron Paul in 2012, although the exit polls asked about him in only two states.

CAMPAIGN CANDIDATE STATES POLLED SHARE OF PARTY’S VOTERS SATISFIED WITH CANDIDATE 2004 Dem. Kerry 16 79% 2016 Dem. Clinton 8 79 2008 Rep. McCain 6 77 2008 Dem. Clinton 35 71 2008 Dem. Obama 35 69 2012 Rep. Romney 4 63 2016 Dem. Sanders 8 62 2004 Dem. Edwards 9 57 2012 Rep. Santorum 4 55 2008 Rep. Huckabee 4 54 2016 Rep. Rubio 7 53 2012 Rep. Gingrich 3 52 2016 Rep. Cruz 7 51 2016 Rep. Trump 7 49 2012 Rep. Paul 2 33 No recent precedent for a front-runner as divisive as Trump

SOURCE: NATIONAL ELECTION POLL EXIT POLLS

So how is Trump winning? Partly it’s because the field is so divided, as Trende wrote. Campaign reporters perhaps ought to do more to distinguish between a candidate who is winning 34 percent of his party’s vote, as Trump has done so far, and one winning with 60 percent, as Clinton has. Clinton has a much clearer mandate than Trump does. But it’s also partly because Rubio and Cruz leave many Republicans dissatisfied. Maybe if Romney had run himself?

[ExPatty 502]

Democrats substantially hate Hillary as well. But it screams of the ineptitude of the Republican Party that their top three front runners are not even strong voices in the party.

[Rob L 3,811]

Democrats substantially hate Hillary as well. But it screams of the ineptitude of the Republican Party that their top three front runners are not even strong voices in the party.

But it screams of the ineptitude of the Republican Party

Who in the party and how so?

[ExPatty 502]

But it screams of the ineptitude of the Republican Party

Who in the party and how so?

I though the who--the party--and the how--the top three front runners not strong voices--was clear (?).

[Expat1 971]

I though the who--the party--and the how--the top three front runners not strong voices--was clear (?).

Try adding phonics?

[TBoneTX 46,379]

As long as Cruz & Rubio are both still in the race, Trump will keep winning primaries.

[Rob L 3,811]

I though the who--the party--and the how--the top three front runners not strong voices--was clear (?).

The Party has leaders. Was the party leadership ineffective in stopping 16 candidates from running? How could/should they stop Trump and Cruz? The Republican voters seem to be speaking. They want a bully.

Edited March 4, 2016 by Rob L