The robots are coming for jobs

[lostinblue 1,989]

The robots are coming for jobs that pay $20 an hour or less, White House finds

It’s intuitive that automation will take low-wage jobs.

But the White House, in its annual economic report of the president, has broken down just how much that is so.

There’s an 83% chance that automation will take a job with an hourly wage below $20, a 31% chance automation will take a job with an hourly wage between $20 and $40, and just a 4% chance automation will take a job with an hourly wage above $40.

The White House used the same data that underlines other research in the field of labor and robots to arrive at the conclusion. Also read:Boston, D.C. are cities with jobs least likely to be taken away by robots

The key question is what happens when a robot takes one of these low-wage jobs.

Traditionally, innovation leads to higher income, more consumption and more jobs, but the question is whether the current pace of automation may in the shorter term increase inequality.

One study found that higher levels of robot density within an industry lead to higher wages in that industry, the White House notes. However, that could be because the absence of lower-skills biases wage estimates upwards.

The White House says the findings demonstrate the need for training and education to help displaced workers find new jobs.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-robots-are-coming-for-jobs-that-pay-20-an-hour-or-less-white-house-finds-2016-02-22

[Transborderwife 4,666]

If they're non domestic robots can they be deported?

[ExPatty 502]

Too many people have their head in the sand over this. I'm genuinely petrified over the future of the job market. I'm somewhat concerned for myself, as all people should be, but too many people don't realize this train is going to slam them off the tracks in short order.

The essential problem is that robots can learn quicker than humans. Already automation has displaced tons of labor. Tons and tons. It's just going to get much worse, and even high skill positions are in jeopardy. That physician with a degree and years of expertise reading MRI images? Sorry, this company here has an algorithm that is demonstrably more accurate than you are. Now, go chance fields. Your specialty is useless now.

The notion that a $20 hour laborer who's job has been replaced by a $25k robot is going to reliably find more work forever is just naive IMO. A mobile robot with arms can be either programmed or use machine learning to copy a human's job in short order, and do it 24/7 without error and without needing a break. The only way around this is if the job market can create new positions for slow-learning humans--positions that cannot be quickly replaced by a robot, and meanwhile robots come down in price, have better sensors, better capabilities. But as soon as the robot tech for any given position gets to the point it's cheaper to automate, automate it will, so now the person finds a new job.

Are humans now capable of learning at a quicker rate than they were 20 years ago or 50? Nope, but robots are. And the robots of today are garbage compared to the robots we'll have in 20 years, or 40 years. The bulk of people just won't serve any decent contribution to the economy. We're going to see ever-increasing unemployment combined with ever-increasing social largesse to try and cover an increasingly terrible wealth discrepancy between those who own the capital and those who own nothing.

Edited February 23, 2016 by ExPatty

[Darnell 8,479]

slow-learning humans are great for the landscape and mowing jobs. the trick, really, is to remove the illegal aliens that filled these slots already. bonus points for giving over the gear during seizure and raids.

[TBoneTX 46,426]

One secret, it would seem, would be to learn how to manufacture, program, and maintain the robots.

Edited February 23, 2016 by TBoneTX

[Póg mo 1,749]

One secret, it would seem, would be to learn how to manufacture, program, and maintain the robots.

No doubt, of course once Robots are able to do all themselves, it might be a different story.

[ExPatty 502]

One secret, it would seem, would be to learn how to manufacture, program, and maintain the robots.

Yeah, but can the market supply an infinite number of those positions?

Moreover, do you think the average joe is even competent in a high-tech, intense-thinking job? Many aren't.

Automated cashiers are eventually going to obliterate all human cashiers. They currently suck because the technology is pathetic, but in the near future when automated cashiers are taking a snapshot of everything you've placed on a conveyor belt, instantly ringing it up, then you just have somebody who's bagging it. What will that cashier do now? Stock shelves? Sounds good, until that's done by a robot as well, so eventually you end up with a store like walmart being run by robots and managers and customer service. Lots of the other jobs simply disappear. Will a 46 year old cashier with a high school diploma seem a compelling hire to a tech company that's implementing automation for its clients? What can she offer them?

[TBoneTX 46,426]

Solutions are never permanent, are they? Just have to keep up with the power curve to the extent possible.

[Umka36 781]

If that is the case, then who would consume the products that the robots are manufacturing. Having a bunch of jobless folks don't work well in a consumer based economy.

[TBoneTX 46,426]

This discussion is reminiscent of, and exhibits more awareness than, the predictions from the 1970s about how computers would be doing all our work by the year 2000, thus freeing mankind to live a life of idle luxury. It would be nice to find some of those actual predictions, to see how Pollyanna-like they sound today.

[ExPatty 502]

This discussion is reminiscent of, and exhibits more awareness than, the predictions from the 1970s about how computers would be doing all our work by the year 2000, thus freeing mankind to live a life of idle luxury. It would be nice to find some of those actual predictions, to see how Pollyanna-like they sound today.

They aren't entirely off the mark. Computers are indeed doing many things we cannot.

I personally do believe quite strongly that unless we are set back by some major war, fascist government, etc. we'll evolve to a point where robots are continually squeezing out employment and the situation millions of americans are in now--perpetual, lifelong unemployment (there are people who never will hold a job, and can muddle along on social services and charity--these people already exist)--increases in number. It will start with the lower class, removing most of their jobs, and work its way up through skilled professions.

Take it to its logical conclusion. Imagine Data from star trek. Bipedal robot, hyper intelligent, can learn anything and apply it reliably with very little instructions. Realistically, can you compete with him? Can I?

I think there are some silver linings. Employment is what we define ourselves by now out of necessity. Ideally, we'd all like to be retired and have the wealth to do it. Automation will allow that. Also, we don't want to watch robots play piano or paint. Even if they get to the point it can be done better. I think we may see a flourishing of the arts because people no longer need to spend so much time subsisting.

And, we'll see an awful lot of Wall-E. Fat people doing very little but stupidly consuming entertainment. Exactly as today, without having to go to work.

As for money, there will be the ultra rich and the rest of us on stipends in place of life long unemployment, because society will have such surplus we don't have now.

Edited February 23, 2016 by ExPatty

[Teddy B 17,252]

If that is the case, then who would consume the products that the robots are manufacturing. Having a bunch of jobless folks don't work well in a consumer based economy.

Good point.

Seems to me technology has been improving since the wheel was invented. 50 or 60 years ago automation was all the rage and humans were supposedly becoming obsolete, but that hasn't happened. Technology changes and the workforce adapts.

[Janelle2002 3,865]

One secret, it would seem, would be to learn how to manufacture, program, and maintain the robots.

I'm sure Trump will send those manufacturing jobs to China and the plant will be built by illegals. Capitalism at it's best.

[Sousuke 1,214]

Another solution is to heavily tax automation and then redistribute to people who lose their jobs due to automation.

Edited February 24, 2016 by Sousuke

[Sousuke 1,214]

Technology changes and the workforce adapts.

Has it? I'm not so sure.

Edited February 24, 2016 by Sousuke