Iran is dangerous—but Saudi Arabia is even worse

[Póg mo 1,749]

Hopefully the US will finally wise up to Saudi.

Saudi Arabias decision to execute Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr Al-Nimr was designed to provoke Iran into an expansion of military engagement. Thats an unsettling strategybut true nonetheless.

The initial reaction to the kingdoms decision was relatively minora few Molotov cocktails were lobbed at its embassy in Tehran. But a chain reaction of diplomatic fallout has unfolded over the past few days. Saudi Arabia severed all diplomatic relations with Iran; oil allies Bahrain, Sudan and Djibouti quickly followed suit. Perhaps more surprisingly, other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies like Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates opted for the less drastic measure of recalling their ambassadors.

Each act of incitement, however, including Saudi Arabias allegedly deliberate targeting of the Iranian embassy in Sanaa, Yemen, is further indication of Riyadhs desperation to demonize Tehran in the court of world opinion. It is an exercise in futility, and one that casts doubt over the kingdoms own stability and sensibility. The United States longtime ally is losing its iron-fisted grip over both its people and the region. This fact, coupled with Saudi Arabias staggering arsenal and unprincipled ruling ideology, makes the kingdom incredibly dangerousarguably more so than infamous Axis of Evil member Iran.

Saudi Arabia contends that its provocations of Iran are a principled and urgent rejoinder to a dangerous sectarian rival. But the reality is that the kingdom seeks to distract the international community from its own significant internal weaknesses.

Saudi Arabia is in dire economic straits. In 2015, it ran a budget deficit approaching $100 billion, and it is on track for an $80 billion dollar shortfall this year. Riyadhs decision to boost oil production to enervate competitors like Iran and shale oil producers has driven the price of crude oil down sharply, wrecking its own financial profile. (Last year at this time, a barrel of oil sold for $78; today it sells for roughly half the price.) For a country with an oil sector that comprises 75% of its budget revenues, this loss of income has a serious impact. The kingdom has announced unprecedented austerity measures, including a value-added tax, and has raised the price of gas in the country by 50%.

During the precarious negotiations of the P5+1 nuclear deal, Saudi Arabia told anyone who would listen that Iran was unreliable, untrustworthy, and inherently bellicose. Much to Riyadhs chagrin, however, Iran has complied with major provisions of the agreement, as with its recent shipment of 25,000 pounds of enriched uranium to Russia. Last month, the International Atomic Energy Agencys (IAEA) 12-year investigation ended with the conclusion that Irans suspected nuclear weapons program, if it existed at all, ended in 2009, expediting the lifting of sanctions on Tehran.

While Saudi Arabia persists in its campaign to paint Iran as an aggressive, expansionist regional force, the kingdom has increased its own military expenditure considerably: $11 billion in ships, $1.3 billion in bombs and munitions last year. Riyadhs defense budget is in fact five times that of Iran, and the GCC as a whole maintains a 10:1 ratio of military expenditure over its Persian counterpart. The accumulation of such a large arsenal in a tinderbox locale raises serious questions about who, exactly, is the main destabilizing force in the region.

Stability is the last excuse of the autocrat. The Saudis have expended tremendous resources persuading their Western allies that the steadiness of an authoritarian monarchy trumps democracy, let alone civil liberties and human rights. Yet current changes to the line of succession are challenging that narrative. A paradigm shift of leadership beckons as King Salman, the son of the kingdoms founder, Abdulaziz Al-Saud, looks to incorporate a next generation of Saudi royalty. The kings nephew, Mohammed bin Nayef, is the crown prince and presumptive heir to the throne. But it is Salmans own son, Mohammed, deputy crown prince and the worlds youngest defense minister at age 30, who is seen as the countrys eminence grise and successor to his fathers title.

However, Mohammed bin Salman is widely regarded as impulsive and woefully inexperienced. The failure of Saudi policy against the Iranian-supported Houthi rebellion in Yemen lies at his feet. It is hardly a coincidence that on the same day Riyadh executed Sheik Al-Nimr, it unilaterally withdrew from a fragile ceasefire in Yemen. Western allies and regional acolytes alike nervously consider whether Saudi Arabia will be vulnerable to more campaigns of folly or even a palace coup, depending on who next ascends the leadership hierarchy.

If stability is something the Saudis market to its Western allies, it is religious access that the country promotes to the Muslim world. The House of Saud has enjoyed and exploited its moniker of Guardian of the Holy Sites. This status has tamped down criticism by many who fear being denied entry to Mecca for the annual religious obligation of the Hajj.

This is not to say discontent has been quashed in the Muslim world. Increasingly, dissenters have argued that Saudi Arabia has become a liability to Islam. The Vegasization of Mecca, with its tall, garish buildings and luxury hotels dwarfing the Grand Mosque; the demolition of historically and religiously important sites in the city; and the debacle surrounding yet another stampede during the Hajj have all caused many Muslims to question whether staying silent on Saudi misfeasance is worth the consequences. Without the presumption of legitimacy from the Muslim world, the credibility of the Saudi regime stands on shifting sands.

Needless to say, the kingdoms not-so-subtle implosion has important ramifications for the region. Interestingly, it may have even overplayed its hand with the Obama Administration. In response to the execution of Sheikh Al-Nimr and the ensuing diplomatic downward spiral, the White House has called for both sides to exercise restraintan interestingly neutral tack when dealing with Americas professed central strategic ally and another it does not have diplomatic relations with.

This balanced response indicates a potentially major recalibration in American thinking regarding the Persian Gulf and the two major countries that straddle a geostrategic waterway. It also suggests that after 36 years, Washington is no longer interested in placing all of its regional strategic eggs in one basket, especially when stronger, more stable alternatives are readily available. The erosion of reliability and judgment displayed of late by the House of Saud exposes it as a royal family either unwilling or unable to put its house in order. And in one of the worlds most volatile regions, that is the most provocative act of all.

http://qz.com/589737/iran-is-dangerous-but-saudi-arabia-is-even-worse/

[JayJayH 546]

The only thing worse I can think of than a powerful Saudi Arabia is a collapsed Saudi Arabia.

Though if environmental concerns aren't enough to shift towards green energy, perhaps independence from the Middle East should be?

Edited January 9, 2016 by JayJayH

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

Hopefully the US will finally wise up to Saudi.

Another inconvenient truth.

[ExPatty 502]

Like other middle eastern nations Saudi has no functioning economy or hope of existence in a post-oil world or even one in which the price of oil suffers a long trough. The vast bulk of employment in Saudi is government and the reliance on oil is because the country has nothing else to offer anyone; manufacturing, technology, etc. all foreign concepts.

I doubt it will come to war but if it does I hope the US can stay out of it. Let these fools kill each other over who's interpretation of Islam is correct. Hopefully some warlords can be left over who we can buy oil from afterward, just like the war lords we buy from today. The Saudi regime are scum who treat their people like #######. Would be no great loss to see them on the ends of ropes for this, though I am sure we would get pulled into the mess somehow, then Russia could join with Iran. Lots of fun for everyone.

[lostinblue 1,989]

[OriZ 3,157]

Saudi is far from being the greatest country on earth, but to say they are more dangerous than Iran shows a complete lack of understanding of what the Iranian regime is actually all about.