Why so few I-129F's approved in November??

[Pennycat 880]

Looking at this graph it seemed like there was a pretty level number of applications approved right up until November and then it tapered of to a third seemingly overnight! Why would this be..?

There is a key that explains that graph. Look directly below the graph. It says:

"You can interpret the graph as follows:

(1) The bars indicate the percentage of petitions filed during a given month that have been approved. High percentages mean that the USCIS has processed most petitions originally filed during that month while a low percentage indicates few to none have been processed. "

So, that means that about 25% of people who filed in November have been approved. Seeing as how this is the 3rd week in December, and that the stated average is about a month, I'd say that's right about right (and may be an indication that the average will increase to 5 weeks, probably due to Thanksgiving).

[NataliaLin 18]

I know two girls that they filed on July and they both got approved in 21 days (from NOA1 to NOA2). And they received their visa on november (in Argentina)

November's approvals does not mean about the filers, but the number of cases that they approved, either from the same month or previus months applications.

[Pennycat 880]

I know two girls that they filed on July and they both got approved in 21 days (from NOA1 to NOA2). And they received their visa on november (in Argentina)

November's approvals does not mean about the filers, but the number of cases that they approved, either from the same month or previus months applications.

Not according to the key that explains the graph. If you want that data, you can use Igor's list to create it for yourself. But that specific graph is taking the number of people who filed in November and then keeping track of what percentage of them have gotten approved. Point #1 right below the graph says as much: http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/monthly_filers.php?cfl=

They do it this way so that you can sort of guesstimate when it will be your turn. Watching how many CSC does on a day to day basis wouldn't really help you much, for two reasons. One: what is here on Visajourney is NOT from the government, it is from Visajourney users. It doesn't show anywhere close to the full applicant pool. So, one, it would look like CSC only approved 20 applications in one day, when in reality thy probably did 200. And even if you did have the 200 number, how is that helpful to you if you don't know how many people are "in line" ahead of you? It's must better to find those who applied around the same time you did, and watch how they fare to get an idea of when you will get approved.

And you know two girls who filed in July and got approved in 21 days because in July, CSC's average was about 21 days. Now the average is 35.

[walran 24]

I'm Nov 2 receipt. I've pulled what I think is every K-1 petition for Nov 2. 150 total. I check every night on each one. I also have 20 petitions on my USCIS case tracker app that I watch to see movement, very little to none.

Reviews occurred for 30% of the K-1s on the dates guessed by VJ of Dec 4-7. The remaining have been touched at a very slow rate, 1-2 approvals per day, until 16 Dec when RFE have been going out 5 on 16th, 5 on 17th. I haven't seen anymore approvals for Nov 2 receipt. There are still a lot outstanding.

In our Nov forum we have a very smart guy who created a program to check daily on a specific number of K-1. He's showing 40% for Nov 2, and the rest of the days less.

So Nov has not been completed, not even close.

For Information: Igor's list does not list out all the petitions for any specific date. Those are only the ones where members have provided the information. It is does not query the USCIS database.

So where can we access this wonderful case tracker app? and what is the link for the program checking the specific Number of K1's.. Would be interesting to see what we are really looking at as far as timelines..

Based on VJ I should see approval about 35 days out from NOA1.. I guess we'll see what happens and when.

[Jaime & Aisha 46]

My tally as of 8:45pm CST today, 18 Dec

Nov 2 Receipt---from the USCIS case tracker site, not Igor.

70 - pending review = 47%

52 - approvals = 35% 51 occurred before or on 10 Dec 1 occurred on 11 Dec total of 0 or 0% happening in the past 3 days

26 - RFE = 26% 18 occurring on the 15th, 17th, 18th of Dec total of 18 or 69% happening in the past 3 days

4 - Returned

Good bet that anyone that has a receipt date of Nov 2 and no NOA2 as of today can be expecting a RFE.

I don't know if you can extend this to other dates. In that all approvals occur within the 4 days of the VJ predicted date, anything beyond that is most likely a RFE.

[Jaime & Aisha 46]

BREATH: if there were to be a stop in the K-1 visa program it would be done by ending the acceptance of new petitions starting on some future date, such as 1 March 2016 no more K-1 petitions. All petitions in the system would be processed through. My expectation, so as not to upset people to much, and not have to refund money.

I've learned over the years that we have choices, either to sit back and let life (other people) steer our life boat, or to participate in the steering. I rather participate, or steer my own boat--control the odds as best I can. I think you should as well, for the sake of your future bride/groom to complete this process as we started it. If they want to change the rules of the game, let them do it after we are completed.

With that said.

I am asking you guys to VOTE against the HR4274 that would end K-1. Ask your friends/family to vote as well, and anyone else you can (other groups you participate). Go here:

https://www.popvox.c...s/us/114/hr4274

If your friends/family are leaning against the K-1, because of the wacko in Cali along with the news media and drama queen politicians saying the K-1 is a loophole. Have them read this to understand the process we all go through:

http://diplopundit.n...eening-process/

The process is solid, and the best there is, no way can any process or background check 'read minds or hearts'. Any more than making outlawing guns can keep a wacko from getting one (aka Paris with very strict gun control)---don't forget another attack in France was averted a couple of months back on a trainhttps://en.wikipedia...ys_train_attack.

[walran 24]

Thank you I just opposed it on the site you sent.. There is always some dumb assed politician trying to make political hay out of something.. The K-1 process isn't the problem..

Maybe taking the issues against the countries where terrorists come from would be a better idea as in double screening but in this country we are so phobic about being anti Muslim, religion, etc. that it's ridiculous.. Not all Muslim's are terrorists but it seems that all terrorists these days are Muslim.. I have lived under Islam and have many friends but would always say screen, screen, and then screen again...from most of those countries..

But politicians from Texas won't do that so they say..."Down with K-1's!!"