One Year To Nowhere

[OriZ 3,157]

Another perspective on things:

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3653

I don't necessarily agree with everything there, namely some of his technical methods(and I don't like it when people use stockcharts.com instead of just posting a screenshot straight out of their trading system like I did), but it shows the bigger picture pretty well.

BTW, speaking of the FTSE the other day - it is already down 17.5% from its April highs, and is at its lowest point of the year today.

Meanwhile in bubbleland today, the headline indexes closed up, but more stock were down than up.

[Expat1 971]

It's a rally! LOL

[OriZ 3,157]

Oh yeah. Whadda rally! lol.

[Expat1 971]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...........

Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist Jeffrey Saut said Tuesday that stock investors should get read for a "rip your face off-type rally."

"You've got massively oversold conditions in the equity markets," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box," saying stocks could reach new highs by year-end. "The setup is pretty good for a rally to the upside that's going to surprise a lot of people."

The recent negativity in the market does not deconstruct the bullish case here, Saut added. The sharp decline in junk bonds and oil prices on Friday led to a selloff of nearly 310 points in the Dow Jones industrial average.

See? It's a RALLY!!!! Everyone throw your money in!!!!!!

[OriZ 3,157]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...........

Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist Jeffrey Saut said Tuesday that stock investors should get read for a "rip your face off-type rally."

"You've got massively oversold conditions in the equity markets," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box," saying stocks could reach new highs by year-end. "The setup is pretty good for a rally to the upside that's going to surprise a lot of people."

The recent negativity in the market does not deconstruct the bullish case here, Saut added. The sharp decline in junk bonds and oil prices on Friday led to a selloff of nearly 310 points in the Dow Jones industrial average.

See? It's a RALLY!!!! Everyone throw your money in!!!!!!

Here's what he said in May:

S&P 500 Could Hit 4,300 Within Nine Years Raymond James’ veteran chief investment strategist, Jeffrey Saut, expects a secular bull market

http://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-could-hit-4-300-within-nine-years-1432944117

I'll say it in the clearest way possible:

NOT

GOING

TO

HAPPEN

PERIOD.

In the same article he also expected 2,250 by the end of this year. Might still happen, we do have 15 days left LOL.

Now, here's what he said in Oct 2007:

n conclusion, unlike most of my counterparts, I can't determine if the collateral crunch is going to morph into an honest-to-gosh credit crunch, which then has the potential to spill over into a recession. That's why I am sticking with themes that should do well irrespective of economic circumstances. In addition to my international/emerging markets and stuff-stock themes, I remain over weighted in pharma, defense, homeland defense, security, water, agriculture, energy, cement, base/precious metals, towers, RFID, electricity, etc.

Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/banks-credit-healthcare-China-stuff-stocks/10/8/2007/id/14384#ixzz3uRixFAx9

Here's the thing though, he might be right about one thing: The markets are short term slightly oversold according to some measures. This is mostly due to the declines in the secondary indexes that unlike the headline indexes are still very close to their August bottoms, and a bounce may be upon us. If we do bounce further, the headline indexes might actually eke out marginal new highs, while the secondary indexes will just experience a shallow correction, thus creating another classic divergence or non confirmation. I view new highs as unlikely at the moment, but have been in this market long enough to know that sometimes, only short term, the unlikely beats the likely.

One more thing:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-15/virtually-every-wall-street-strategist-expects-bull-market-continue

Edited December 16, 2015 by OriZ

[Expat1 971]

"Irrational Exuberance" was published in 2000. The market coincidentally crashed the same month the book was released.

It was updated (2nd edition) to account for housing prices and clearly described the unsustainable housing bubble in 2005.

Housing peaked in 2006. Everyone knows what happened in 2007.

The third edition just came out. It warns that the current market bubble is comparable to the housing bubble in 2005.

The last people who I would listen to in a bubble are the ones who created it and gain by sustaining it.

[OriZ 3,157]

Right now bonds are finally signaling a hike in Dec(they actually have not done that until now despite other expectations that were in the markets for a raise sooner). That can change daily so we'll see when we get closer.

The market is much more informative than any other blah blah...

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/16/fed-raises-rates-for-first-time-since-2006.html

[Expat1 971]

The market is much more informative than any other blah blah...

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/16/fed-raises-rates-for-first-time-since-2006.html

Cool. Makes gold even cheaper.

[Expat1 971]

Short rally.

Noticed another oil company filed for bankruptcy, and PR is going insolvent. That's another $1.4 bil - zapp...

[Expat1 971]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-companies-returning-to-adjusted-figures-popular-before-the-internet-bust-2015-12-15

A financial obfuscation of the dot-com era is making a comeback: Hundreds of U.S. companies are trumpeting adjusted net income, adjusted sales and “adjusted Ebitda.”

These adjusted measures paint a rosier picture of corporate earnings. Without them, third-quarter earnings per share fell 13% for the biggest U.S. companies, according to Deutsche Bank research, instead of falling 0.1% with them.

About one in 10 major securities filings this year used the term adjusted Ebidta--or adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization--up from one in 40 a decade ago. About a quarter of earnings-related filings this year included figures that don’t comply with generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, as well as more standard measures, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings.

[OriZ 3,157]

Cool. Makes gold even cheaper.

Classic "sell the news". I believe what will happen is what normally happens in those situations. Most times the market will move ahead of a certain action or expectation of something happening and in anticipation of it(as has been the case with the dollar rise and the collapse in commodities). Once that actually occurs, there will be some follow up but most of the move is already over. So, in this case, that means all the things you would expect to happen with a hike(commodities and metals lower, dollar higher, foreign currencies lower etc) is actually almost over and baked in the cake short term. We often see moves in the opposite direction that confuse and "shock" those who don't know that you should sell the news, not buy them.

Btw, as far as bonds are concerned again, there is no further rate hike seen atm. If that changes I will make sure to mention it but for now it's done.

[Expat1 971]

Classic "sell the news". I believe what will happen is what normally happens in those situations. Most times the market will move ahead of a certain action or expectation of something happening and in anticipation of it(as has been the case with the dollar rise and the collapse in commodities). Once that actually occurs, there will be some follow up but most of the move is already over. So, in this case, that means all the things you would expect to happen with a hike(commodities and metals lower, dollar higher, foreign currencies lower etc) is actually almost over and baked in the cake short term. We often see moves in the opposite direction that confuse and "shock" those who don't know that you should sell the news, not buy them.

Btw, as far as bonds are concerned again, there is no further rate hike seen atm. If that changes I will make sure to mention it but for now it's done.

The truth is I don't buy gold for investment, I buy it for fun. I have no idea what I'm going to do with it but someday and maybe it will be useful.

Edited December 18, 2015 by Expat1

[OriZ 3,157]

I'm sure someday it will. My opinion on gold is sorta mixed right now, it's a complicated juncture. On the one hand, I believe very long term(10-15 years at least) gold will definitely be above 2,000. On the other hand, medium term I think gold's not done going down. But very short term, I think it will experience a decent bounce, maybe even back to 1,400 before turning back down to lower lows. So it's a mixed bag.

[Expat1 971]

I definitely agree on gold

S&P is starting to form a little trendline. LOL

I'm thinking that those folks who bought into that screaming tear your face off rally might be a little disappointed.

[OriZ 3,157]

I definitely agree on gold

S&P is starting to form a little trendline. LOL

I'm thinking that those folks who bought into that screaming tear your face off rally might be a little disappointed.

You definitely agree on gold where? Short/intermediate/long or all?

I just think right now it's beyond oversold. But I still think it hasn't seen the lows yet.

As far as the S&P - a day here or a day there doesn't do it for me. The way I see it is the index is in a very wide trading range, between the May high around 2130 and the August/Sep 2015/Oct 2014 lows around 1820-1880. As long as it's in this range it's basically trading sideways. Eventually of course it will break out one way or the other and I think it will be to the downside. Once it does that it will confirm and establish a long bear market IMO.