One Year To Nowhere

[X Factor 1,112]

Keep riding the old bull market. No short signal anywhere

[OriZ 3,157]

I've ditched this terrible market for crypto lol I'll come back to it when I think it's time to short the hell out of it.

[eieio 1,594]

On 12/7/2015 at 9:19 PM, OriZ said:

This cannot be answered in short. I've made this point pretty clear(at least I thought) in the other thread. It's not as much a function of time, as it is of price, and even with time I clearly stated that I cannot pinpoint the exact timing of a top(it would be foolish and pretentious to attempt/pretend to do so).

I started talking about this being close to over(while also emphasizing that it's not quite yet - and that as long as the S&P500 was above the 1820 level - which it had stayed above for the next{last} two years, it was still in the clear) at the end of 2013. Keep in mind that that was at a time where between 2009-2013 the market rose by an average of almost 70% per two years, with a total return of roughly 170% in the 4 years before my post. In the two years since, some indexes are down and most are flat while the headline indexes(those who gave people 70% every two years) are up a measly 8%. So anyone who thought to themselves, 'wow, look at these markets - I'll get in here and make 70% in the next two years' only made 8% this time around. I've said it many times that tops are a process and not an event and this one sure has taken its sweet time due to all the people out there trying to fight it.

Of course a downturn is always inevitable, but I was quite bullish starting in early 2009 all the way to the end of 2013. That's only when I turned bearish so I think price wise - my timing was pretty good. Time wise - As I have written above - market internals have turned unfavorable in mid 2014. In past cycles, that was quickly followed by a broader deterioration in the headline indexes as well - normally no longer than a few months later. We are now almost 18 months later. Make no mistake about it, it will happen, but again those are only the headline indexes.

The broad market(in which market internals are in part inferred from) is indeed down for the year. Only around 30% of individual stocks are actually trending up, most of them large caps that are themselves in a bubble such as MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, etc. When those come down(and they will), they will come down hard, which will affect the market just as much as their rise has held it up.

This is the clearest sign of a fractured market on the verge of collapse. Credit spreads are already diverging and signaling trouble. That was not the case between 2009-2014 where credit spreads were aligned with the moves of the stock market. It's often said that the stock market, and especially the heavier stocks are the last to change direction. Credit spreads and bonds often signal trouble, or in the case of a bottom they signal a positive shift in the economy long before stocks do. Right now what we are witnessing is a divergence that so long as it lasts makes a severe stock market drop imminent.

As I've written above, a change in market internals or the technical picture would defer the immediacy of my concerns but would not change the bigger picture. I know you said you don't want to dig more deeply but considering everything I have just written above I'd like to understand which markers exactly I have missed. I will repeat the points that I wrote in that other thread:

* The market is in a very tiring uptrend and is on the verge of another trend change

 

* That trend change has not yet been completed as long as certain criteria is met for me - among those - a break of the Oct 2014 lows(I brought that up two years ago).

 

* Unemployment will not go much lower than 5% if it even does that, before it goes back up above 8%.

 

* There will be another recession before this decade comes to an end, probably even more severe than the last one(*This was the original post. I now wish to add that I believe it will be by the end of 2016).

 

* While I can not definitively tell you right now when exactly such recession shall begin, I WILL be able to do that once my requirements for a market top are met. So that will be as real time as it gets(again, we're not trying to PREDICT but rather work with tools that allow us to IDENTIFY far enough ahead of time).

 

* I am shorting the market already, with an expectation for a 40-50% decline from current levels. However, it could still creep up for a while longer if it wants to, but the return will be no more than another 10% on the upside from current levels, which will be ADDED to the total losses in the end so basically not worth the risk(again, this is an original post from half a year ago, so nothing has changed with the level of the market since. Even if it did in the near future, it will not change the prospects for a roughly 50% decline from current levels, and will just cause it to fall further).

 

* The market will have an avg annual return of ZERO for the next decade.

And it wasn't only the oil call but also the dollar and some others but either way that's not what matters. I'm not what matters. It's the bigger picture that I think is important for people to see that matters.

Look, if it doesn't turn, I can't always say it's still looming and be right. I don't play those games. I promise if the market rises another 100% from here over the next 4 years and then drops 50% back to current levels, I won't say "see, I told you do". BUT, if the market goes up another 10% from here over the next year, and then falls 60% by the end of the decade(from that top, and around 50% from current levels) you bet I will say I was right. So that's how it works, and I don't believe it's vague at all. If anything it may seem a little vague because there are of course limitations to trying to "predict" the market and I acknowledge those fully. I won't come here and say I can tell you exactly what the market is going to do tomorrow because I certainly can't.

So here is the post I remember. You did have stipulations on an imminent crash....so you have that covered. But you did believe that we would have a recession by the end of 2016. I guess that’s not really a prediction though. 

 

Anyways....it seems like a never ending prediction that’s basically says the stock market will crash someday. We will see how things are a year from now.

[OriZ 3,157]

1 hour ago, eieio said:

So here is the post I remember. You did have stipulations on an imminent crash....so you have that covered. But you did believe that we would have a recession by the end of 2016. I guess that’s not really a prediction though. 

 

Anyways....it seems like a never ending prediction that’s basically says the stock market will crash someday. We will see how things are a year from now.

Where does it say recession by the end of 2016?  lol it's not a never ending prediction since it has a specific target. Very different from saying "you know, one day the market will crash, it can be from levels 20 times higher than now to levels 10 times higher than now" lol no that's not what I'm doing. I have been saying for 3 years now time and time again as long as the S&P500 is above support it's good to go, I honestly don't know how much clearer one can be. I also gave a specific target of 1,300 for the S&P500 when the markets do crash, what level it falls from will not matter, that level is still much lower than where the index was at the time I started cautioning. So unless you plan to sell during this time, any "profits" you have right now that I "missed" are nothing but paper gains that are completely irrelevant to the big picture and won't matter anymore as they will all get wiped out. You are clearly missing all the above points and they are very important points.  

 

From what you quoted: * That trend change has not yet been completed as long as certain criteria is met for me - among those - a break of the Oct 2014 lows(I brought that up two years ago).

 

Did that happen? no. So instead of congratulating me for pin pointing the exact support that would hold the markets you are trying to make me seem like a permabear which yes, it's very disingenuous. Also what I wrote at the bottom there well guess what we've not seen 100% yet so I'm not wrong yet. You will come to find out in time that I was right about 1,300 on the S&P500 and was right about zero return over the next decade and really that's all that matters. I said I wasn't going to entertain you in that thread so you bring mine up lol nice try but I just had to come here and thank you for doing it because I think it's truly an important thread. 

 

Edited February 7, 2018 by OriZ

[eieio 1,594]

2 hours ago, eieio said:

There will be another recession before this decade comes to an end, probably even more severe than the last one(*This was the original post. I now wish to add that I believe it will be by the end of 2016).

 

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

1 hour ago, eieio said:

 

Even Cramer missed a fair amount. Nobody is right about the market all the time, or they would be a good. The key in the stock market game is be right more than you are wrong 

[OriZ 3,157]

1 hour ago, Nature Boy Flair said:

Even Cramer missed a fair amount. Nobody is right about the market all the time, or they would be a good. The key in the stock market game is be right more than you are wrong 

Haha don't get me started on cramer. It's a miracle when he doesn't miss. Btw The good thing is you don't even have to be right more than you're wrong or even half the time...at the end of the day it comes down to risk management. If you take a larger profit on successful trades than you lose on bad trades, technically you can be right just 30% of the time and still make money. Most people grapple to understand that, but when you think about it it makes sense. Stick with your profits for as long as possible, cut your losses early.

Edited February 7, 2018 by OriZ

[OriZ 3,157]

Wouldn't let me edit anymore but wanted to add though I'm pretty confident many more than half my calls have been right. If someone think quoting me saying 'I believe' proves me wrong when they didn't bother doing what I said and comparing to later posts that's their problem but if that's all one can get on me I'm feeling pretty damn good right now lol

Edited February 7, 2018 by OriZ

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

16 minutes ago, OriZ said:

Haha don't get me started on cramer. It's a miracle when he doesn't miss. Btw The good thing is you don't even have to be right more than you're wrong or even half the time...at the end of the day it comes down to risk management. If you take a larger profit on successful trades than you lose on bad trades, technically you can be right just 30% of the time and still make money. Most people grapple to understand that, but when you think about it it makes sense. Stick with your profits for as long as possible, cut your losses early.

Agree profit not percent right would be the goal  you are korrect. As I have said before I usually have no clue what you are talking about. Don't know anything about Cramer either , just a name I knew 

[Póg mo 1,749]

This thread reminds me of the old

George Bernard Shaw quote about lining all the economists end to end, but not ever being able to reach a  conclusion. 

[OriZ 3,157]

Soooo...S&P500 is up a whopping 20% (mainly thanks to FAANG and buybacks) over the last four years + 1 month. Basically, 4 years to nowhere when we compare this with 211% that it was up between 2009-2014. I was totally on board with the latter. I was bearish part of the time and neutral most of the time with the former. To those who were not here at the time, to those with bad memories, or those who just wanna throw silly things at me that never stick, here's a quick recap(read the whole page as well as any threads linked within it to get the full picture):

 

I promised at the time I would keep it for the naysayers and so I did. So...we have a market that's been volatile, prone to crashes, and all that overall just to produce a really slow crawl. Now, even that, I believe, is finally nearing a fatal demise. I still need to wait on a few more confirmations regarding some indicators, and will know more in the spring. In the short term, I think the S&P500 will remain roughly in the 2,300-2,600 range, give or take 100 quick points, till spring. March-May is when the direction will be finally decided, and I have (almost) every indication it will be towards my 1,300 S&P500 target. I've been sticking to this target for years, telling everybody that no matter how high the S&P500 rises on paper in the short term, could be 3,000, could be 10,000...the target remains. The floor does not move up along with the ceiling, and I'm still calling it. We will see 1,300, likely by 2020. This will catch Trump in real bad timing. Had he allowed things to crash, called them out for what they were(a bubble, as he did before the elections) instead of touting the gains, he would have had ample time to recover, and come out the winner, the savior. Instead, he allowed this to go on too long. Hell, he wants it to go on even longer, based on his silly remarks towards the FED raising rates! True lunacy. 

 

So long story short, now, by the time the dust settles, it will be too late to recover strongly enough to win the elections imo. I called it two years ago, he should have listened to me. But who am I...just someone who types on VJ at 10pm  Anyway lets not put the cart before the horse, I will keep updating over the following months, but I really think the party has begun.

 

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by OriZ

[X Factor 1,112]

More volatility means more opportunities both long and short

[OriZ 3,157]

7 hours ago, X Factor said:

More volatility means more opportunities both long and short

Well yes it does, but the longer term trend, bigger picture is changing right before our eyes. I'll enjoy trading both long and short in this market.

[LIBrty4all 3,749]

Acid rain, Ice age, or Market crash,  which one was it?

[X Factor 1,112]

1 hour ago, LIBrty4all said:

Acid rain, Ice age, or Market crash,  which one was it?

Hard to predict. Just keep riding the wave with appropriate hedges. 2019 was my best trading year and most of the time I was in neutral trading strategies with lots of strangles around earnings season.