One Year To Nowhere

[Rob L 3,811]

You asked for it, so don't dare tell me I brag - I'm already up 22% YTD. That's after being up 127% last year.

Amazing..but you are still not retired yet

[Expat1 971]

Wonder if they will be in the sequel:

http://canmua.net/texas/richard-perry-on-shorting-investment-grade-513194.html

Yep gold doing good, rupia acct growing nicely on a USD basis (i'm about to flip it and that will be the end of that tho) But otherwise nothing from my side. M2 velocity is still sliding, GDP has decelerated, valuations are still insane, and its all propped up on one leg. Still calling late springish. Next earnings season.

Hey, notice oil and gold? Nice little rally there.

Stocks getting closer to the end of their counter trend move I believe - thinking maybe 1750 by the end of May?

[Expat1 971]

Just checking in, I assumed by now you guys made bank and had cashed it in for an early retirement already. Tell me when to make the big short.

Everyone else i believe has already made it lol. Im hearing S&P at 1550, 1500?

Amazing..but you are still not retired yet

Retirement is very expensive

[Expat1 971]

Went from oversold to overbought way quick huh?

Seller's remorse? Gonna cost somebody.

[OriZ 3,157]

Everyone else i believe has already made it lol. Im hearing S&P at 1550, 1500?

Retirement is very expensive

1500? That would probably only still bring expected 10 year S&P500 total returns to around 5% annually. The completion of every market cycle across history brought valuations towards or below levels consistent with 10% annual prospective returns. I estimate it would need to decline to around 1000 for that.

Amazing..but you are still not retired yet

Unlike Trump, I started with $600...and even he's not retired yet. I've gown that initial capital over the last 10 years quite significantly(do the math yourself of an average of over 100% per year). Significant enough to go to Vegas this May as mentioned in the other thread, stay at the Vdara hotel, watch KA by Cirque De Soleil, as well as Mystere by them, watch Le Reve, Blueman group, Terry Fator, David Copperfield, do all the other attractions(eiffel, gondola etc) as well as this which I posted in the other thread - http://www.scenic.com/tours/grand-voyager-and-skywalk#/.Vskhj_lViko

I don't need to be retired on an island, I take plenty of trips. I enjoy what I do. This isn't the lottery or a casino, one time win and then spend it all, it's a profession and a helluva fun one at that, and it's something I'll keep doing even with billions.

[Expat1 971]

1500? That would probably only still bring expected 10 year S&P500 total returns to around 5% annually. The completion of every market cycle across history brought valuations towards or below levels consistent with 10% annual prospective returns. I estimate it would need to decline to around 1000 for that.

Unlike Trump, I started with $600...and even he's not retired yet. I've gown that initial capital over the last 10 years quite significantly(do the math yourself of an average of over 100% per year). Significant enough to go to Vegas this May as mentioned in the other thread, stay at the Vdara hotel, watch KA by Cirque De Soleil, as well as Mystere by them, watch Le Reve, Blueman group, Terry Fator, David Copperfield, do all the other attractions(eiffel, gondola etc) as well as this which I posted in the other thread - http://www.scenic.com/tours/grand-voyager-and-skywalk#/.Vskhj_lViko

I don't need to be retired on an island, I take plenty of trips. I enjoy what I do. This isn't the lottery or a casino, one time win and then spend it all, it's a profession and a helluva fun one at that, and it's something I'll keep doing even with billions.

1500-1550 was something I read a week or so ago, as I recall reflected like 65% of long term 2016 S&P shorts. If I dig it up I'll post it. It sort of registered, made me laugh, and went to the round file.

Be awhile before we see sustainable oil over 40 bucks. Chinese consumption projected to increase by 750 mbd or so and that will absorb upcoming production increases from our neighbors assuming the production freeze holds but word is it wont hold. Too many stretched budgets. So the weather report still partly cloudy. Dont see US oil companies getting any breaks, their hedged contracts have pretty much expired, so that sector still has to shake out and that debt will have to be absorbed. End of the year, whoever's left was running their business well.

Bahrain this weekend, Dubai last week of March, Bali in August. Travel's great LOL

Edited March 9, 2016 by Expat1

[OriZ 3,157]

1500-1550 was something I read a week or so ago, as I recall reflected like 65% of long term 2016 S&P shorts. If I dig it up I'll post it. It sort of registered, made me laugh, and went to the round file.

Be awhile before we see sustainable oil over 40 bucks. Chinese consumption projected to increase by 750 mbd or so and that will absorb upcoming production increases from our neighbors assuming the production freeze holds but word is it wont hold. Too many stretched budgets. So the weather report still partly cloudy. Dont see US oil companies getting any breaks, their hedged contracts have pretty much expired, so that sector still has to shake out and that debt will have to be absorbed. End of the year, whoever's left was running their business well.

Bahrain this weekend, Dubai last week of March, Bali in August. Travel's great LOL

1500-1550 will definitely be the first serious stop but I don't think it will stop there. I believe once we decisively break 1820, and then test it as resistance, we will see a very quick waterfall drop towards 1500. It might stop there for a little while but not for good IMO.

Travel is awesome. It's the flavor of life(although coke would have you convinced otherwise).

Edited March 9, 2016 by OriZ

[X Factor 1,112]

Because most people don't view this rally as real and are still leaning short, then it could go up a little more.

[OriZ 3,157]

Because most people don't view this rally as real and are still leaning short, then it could go up a little more.

My target of 2020 was hit today. As I said before - not excluding a triple top scenario, although still view it as a lower probability.

OK. So it definitely looks like 2020 is on the table. The fakeout decline happened sooner than I thought(latest 1810 low) and was a trap as was called by X Factor and I. The range is still roughly 1800-2000 give or take some, and while I still believe a decline to 1850-1900 to retest as support is possible, I'm not counting on it. This rally does have more to go both in terms of price as well as time, and then as the old saying goes "sell in May and go away" this year will be more true than ever.

Edited March 12, 2016 by OriZ

[Expat1 971]

My target of 2020 was hit today. As I said before - not excluding a triple top scenario, although still view it as a lower probability.

It might, and though dip buying is always tempting i'm not pushing my luck. Im not in a hurry.

Bahrain's nice, couldnt ask for better weather

Edited March 12, 2016 by Expat1

[Expat1 971]

It might, and though dip buying is always tempting i'm not pushing my luck. Im not in a hurry.

Bahrain's nice, couldnt ask for better weather

[OriZ 3,157]

You quoting yourself now?

[Expat1 971]

You quoting yourself now?

Smartphone and crappy hotel internet. Jakarta has better internet service lol

[OriZ 3,157]

Smartphone and crappy hotel internet. Jakarta has better internet service lol

lol...well, anyway there's nothing to hurry into. Even if certain indexes make a marginal new high(and it's far from certain, and it will not be all of them) that will be another perfect trap, only to the upside this time. There is absolutely no need to buy at valuations that imply zero return over the next 12 years.

2,100-2,200 is possible(yet still not probable), nothing beyond that.

Oil - 40% rally already. Getting to the bottom part of the target range.

[OriZ 3,157]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/16/fed-leaves-rates-unchanged.html

They're already starting to change their mind. Bonds will keep paving the way.