One Year To Nowhere

[X Factor 1,112]

The Greeks are an invaluable part to manage a portfolio

[OriZ 3,157]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/17/fed-minutes.html

Again; Market up - they might. Market keeps tanking - they won't.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/17/fed-minutes.html

Again; Market up - they might. Market keeps tanking - they won't.

I only check this thread when the market is trending up. Too depressed otherwise.

[OriZ 3,157]

I only check this thread when the market is trending up. Too depressed otherwise.

According to some people I know I'm a vulture. Red gets my blood pumping.

Edited February 18, 2016 by OriZ

[Expat1 971]

I only check this thread when the market is trending up. Too depressed otherwise.

Once the market corrects it will be best buying opportunity in 10 years

[X Factor 1,112]

According to some people I know I'm a vulture. Red gets my blood pumping.

Lol. Red = $$$$

[OriZ 3,157]

Once the market corrects it will be best buying opportunity in 10 years

Best buying opportunity we will see for a couple of decades.

[Expat1 971]

Best buying opportunity we will see for a couple of decades.

I should quietly point out that my favorite ETF pick from earlier in the year (IDX) is up 9% YTD

Gold goes without saying

http://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php

The next market I believe will start showing returns is India

The only US sector worth looking at is banking

[OriZ 3,157]

I should quietly point out that my favorite ETF pick from earlier in the year (IDX) is up 9% YTD

Gold goes without saying

http://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php

The next market I believe will start showing returns is India

The only US sector worth looking at is banking

Here's what I said about it Jan 10:

I'm not saying that long term valuations on it are anywhere near as obnoxious as the US markets. I'm just looking at it purely from a technical perspective at the moment. Sure, if you go in at 16 you might make some money in the long run, but technically, there is a good chance it will become even more undervalued so waiting longer might give you an even better entry point. Of course, you can also always budget a certain amount to put in it now, a certain amount if it's say $3 lower, another amount in case it's $6 lower etc. That way you either at least make some on what you did put in, or you have capital sitting there waiting to go in at lower levels should those come. It's a win-win and it's a tactic I use alot while trading too.

Technically right now the way I see it - resistance at 20-21, and no real support at 16(support is similar to that of the August/September lows in the US...should those break here I believe they will break there as well). Really the soonest strong support I see is around $10. Yes, that will mean extreme undervaluation that seems very unlikely and unprobable at the moment - but in periods of panic - I've seen it happen many many times before.

This week's high - 20.53, right now 20.25. I still think that by the time the decline in the US is over, IDX will be lower. Might not go quite as low, but lower than it is today. I also think banking should not be touched. I am saying this now when BKX is 60.62 quite confident we will see it in the 30's or lower before all is said and done. This post is being recorded for quality assurance

[Expat1 971]

Here's what I said about it Jan 10:

This week's high - 20.53, right now 20.25. I still think that by the time the decline in the US is over, IDX will be lower. Might not go quite as low, but lower than it is today. I also think banking should not be touched. I am saying this now when BKX is 60.62 quite confident we will see it in the 30's or lower before all is said and done. This post is being recorded for quality assurance

LOL

Cash I have, lots of it. If I thought Jan was a time to buy I would have bought it. It wasn't and it's not.

Just noting that of all the possible picks it's the ONLY one in the EM list that is up this year and that ain't bad for a part timer.

[X Factor 1,112]

Looks like the market could suck a few more into the bullish side and cause some more pain for the shorts. I am mostly in cash except for some neutral pairs trading strategy. Will wait to reenter bearish spreads.

Edited February 19, 2016 by X Factor

[Expat1 971]

Looks like the market could suck a few more into the bullish side and cause some more pain for the shorts. I am mostly in cash except for some neutral pairs trading strategy. Will wait to reenter bearish spreads.

I'm not sure who's doing this buying and what it's based on. The fundamentals suck.

[X Factor 1,112]

I'm not sure who's doing this buying and what it's based on. The fundamentals suck.

Many of the traders I am communicating with are very bearish and are short. When everyone is stacked on one side the market doesn't usually cooperate. So that is why we are in some sort of a stalemate.

[OriZ 3,157]

Which way? Probably both. Still very much range bound and well within my range...keep bouncing off of 1810, that was a trap again, definitely alot of support there...right now it looks like tomorrow we're testing 1880-1890 again, I think this time there is a chance to go higher, however not by much.

I'm not sure who's doing this buying and what it's based on. The fundamentals suck.

I try to look at those things from a purely technical perspective. The reason for that being that in my experience the market basically does what it wants, and it is only after the fact that reporters try to find an excuse for why the market was up or down on a certain day. Ever wonder why one day on certain data the market is down 2% and a different day on similar data it can be up 2%? The reports of course will try to find the "reason" for this and report on why it happened this way but it's BS. This is how this game works. The market leads, fundamentals follow. That is also why oftentimes market declines will begin long before a recession is officially declared. This is also why Lehman was actually not the cause of the 2008 decline(as it actually started almost a year prior) but rather a consequence of it.

Now that we got that out of the way, I think the reason is everyone is trusting the support at ~1820. So long as it holds we will see buyers, but once it breaks we will get a waterfall decline. That is also why I called it a trap and said I think this time they will go a little higher than 1890(see quote above from Feb 15). I do think there is a good chance though that we will revisit the recent lows and this time maybe even lower(1780 perhaps?) very soon before seeing yet another rally. That's how the market gets people - when no one will believe the decline is coming it will come. As X Factor said alot are(were) short and part of it is also short covering. Those tend to fuel and be one of the sole reasons for bear market rallies because when you sell something short eventually you have to buy it back.

I do have one concern though and that is that the S&P closed last week below 1890, and gapped down way below it today to start this week. If it does not recover and close above it in the next week or two then they will go through 1820 like a knife through butter.

Saved by the bell, again....for now.

[OriZ 3,157]

Someone should remind him that the bottom was already over 2 weeks ago. A short term bottom that was called here in this very forum. I think they will keep going sideways for the next couple weeks before taking another small dip, but still remain roughly in my 1800-2000 range till spring.

Part 1 - check. Been in an 1810-1950 range these past 2 weeks.

Now lets see if part 2 will happen. This will mean a decline shortly back to the 1800 area, possibly a little lower, before a real rip your face off rally to ~2,000.

Part 3 will be a drop late spring/early summer to 1700, and from there by late summer, the mid 1000s, and from there by next year could be even 3 digits. We'll see.