One Year To Nowhere

[OriZ 3,157]

as you all know I think we will resume declining shortly(and in fact as I have stated if they don't go over 1880-1890 then 1820 won't be able to keep supporting for much longer) but the thing is whoever got in at 1830 is also probably the type of trader to throw in the towel right when the bounce is done.

15 min chart:

Update: S&P500 rallied around 1.5% this morning and stopped at...1880. Wouldn't be surprised if after an almost 3% rise from this week's lows the rally was fueled in part by traders being stopped out. Now it's anyone's game again.

Edited February 11, 2016 by OriZ

[OriZ 3,157]

FED: "overall asset valuation pressures have eased". Well, "eased" is kind of a relative word here...

Yellen: "We've done everything to reduce the odds of another devastating financial crisis" ... by creating the third asset bubble in 15 years.

Unfortunate so many politicians think easy money "helps" labor. Lessons from repeated speculative collapse haven't been learned. If only they recognized that untethered fed easing contributes far more to bubbles/collapses/job losses than to new jobs.

However this was great:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-10/here-exchange-left-stunned-janet-yellen-looking-deer-headlights

[Expat1 971]

Here we go. I might have been right about where the cap to gdp will be.

[Expat1 971]

Our market is still being driven by rumors, hopes, false flags, buybacks, fake props, and whining about the terrible things that will happen if the Fed doesn't keep injecting cash into the needle.

http://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php

Pretty good (current) summary of where returns are expected in the largest economies.

The US is still well into bubble territory.

FED: "overall asset valuation pressures have eased". Well, "eased" is kind of a relative word here...

Yellen: "We've done everything to reduce the odds of another devastating financial crisis" ... by creating the third asset bubble in 15 years.

Unfortunate so many politicians think easy money "helps" labor. Lessons from repeated speculative collapse haven't been learned. If only they recognized that untethered fed easing contributes far more to bubbles/collapses/job losses than to new jobs.

However this was great:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-10/here-exchange-left-stunned-janet-yellen-looking-deer-headlights

This is what happens when money is "loaned" into the economy rather than printed and directly invested

[OriZ 3,157]

Our market is still being driven by rumors, hopes, false flags, buybacks, fake props, and whining about the terrible things that will happen if the Fed doesn't keep injecting cash into the needle.

http://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php

Pretty good (current) summary of where returns are expected in the largest economies.

The US is still well into bubble territory.

This is what happens when money is "loaned" into the economy rather than printed and directly invested

I don't agree with either, actually.

I don't think printing is a good idea, ever. Keynesian economics are not something I will ever believe in.

[X Factor 1,112]

Some serious rotation of money into Gold, Bonds and the Yen. The SPX keeps bouncing off the 1800 level. When it breaks it - swoosh down to 1700 and lower.

[OriZ 3,157]

All joking aside, I see a massive rally(at the very least a short term one) brewing in oil and gold, and I'm not sure at the moment how that ties into the correlation oil seems to have with stocks at the moment.

Oil's a sloth. But Gold...ohhh boy...

However, now that Netflix is over $100 I can tell you my target for it is $60 to start with, could be even lower.

Forecast on track, hit a (temp) low of $80 just a few days ago.

[Expat1 971]

Oil's a sloth. But Gold...ohhh boy...

Forecast on track, hit a (temp) low of $80 just a few days ago.

Official position currently seems to be that oil isn't going anywhere for awhile and any attempts to "trade up a rally" are gonna get crushed. Has nothing to do with market conditions, just the way it's gotta be. Folks in oil gotta tighten belts and ride it out.

Whoa @ current price of gold. Wrong time to buy. Gotta pick it up when buying gold isn't the sexy thing to do. My average cost is a lot lower than current price but I'm on a "gold hold" right now.

Cash is king. Told y'all to pick up gold awhile back.

The referenced economies and economic growth projections match up nicely with XOM global outlook presentation that I was bored and sat in on a couple days ago. I believe the money's going there and when I salt the markets I'm splitting out and investing into those areas.

Printed money can work in a controlled circulation environment. This "loan and borrow into prosperity" experiment has miserably failed and is turning people into slaves. The upheaval and reset that is coming after folks figure that out is not something anyone is going to want to be around to watch.

[OriZ 3,157]

Official position currently seems to be that oil isn't going anywhere for awhile and any attempts to "trade up a rally" are gonna get crushed. Has nothing to do with market conditions, just the way it's gotta be. Folks in oil gotta tighten belts and ride it out.

Whoa @ current price of gold. Wrong time to buy. Gotta pick it up when buying gold isn't the sexy thing to do. My average cost is a lot lower than current price but I'm on a "gold hold" right now.

Cash is king. Told y'all to pick up gold awhile back.

The referenced economies and economic growth projections match up nicely with XOM global outlook presentation that I was bored and sat in on a couple days ago. I believe the money's going there and when I salt the markets I'm splitting out and investing into those areas.

Printed money can work in a controlled circulation environment. This "loan and borrow into prosperity" experiment has miserably failed and is turning people into slaves. The upheaval and reset that is coming after folks figure that out is not something anyone is going to want to be around to watch.

Yes but "official positions" is where there's usually too much consensus for it to actually end up that way. Just like you said yourself about gold - you gotta pick it up when buying isn't the sexy thing to do. Well oil certainly isn't sexy right now, but I think that'll change again, shortly.

That being said, I can't stress enough times that so long as I don't get a buy signal on oil, it's still very high risk.

[Expat1 971]

Yes but "official positions" is where there's usually too much consensus for it to actually end up that way. Just like you said yourself about gold - you gotta pick it up when buying isn't the sexy thing to do. Well oil certainly isn't sexy right now, but I think that'll change again, shortly.

That being said, I can't stress enough times that so long as I don't get a buy signal on oil, it's still very high risk.

Market aint setting the price, producers are. Big market rally today (dangling a flashy lure) wanna buy in? Lol

[OriZ 3,157]

Market aint setting the price, producers are. Big market rally today (dangling a flashy lure) wanna buy in? Lol

Price is ALWAYS ahead of fundamentals. ALWAYS.

I ain't buyin a darn thing in the next year besides short positions lol

[Expat1 971]

Price is ALWAYS ahead of fundamentals. ALWAYS.

I ain't buyin a darn thing in the next year besides short positions lol

All those calls? Big mistake

You sure? Its a big rally lol........just ignore that shiny hook.

[OriZ 3,157]

lol I'll write the calls but I ain't gonna buy em.

[Expat1 971]

lol I'll write the calls but I ain't gonna buy em.

laying another trap for sure

Somebody is about to get their pocket picked

[OriZ 3,157]

laying another trap for sure

Somebody is about to get their pocket picked

Which way? Probably both. Still very much range bound and well within my range...keep bouncing off of 1810, that was a trap again, definitely alot of support there...right now it looks like tomorrow we're testing 1880-1890 again, I think this time there is a chance to go higher, however not by much.

Hussman's latest commentary seems to agree with me about the 1820 area: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/weeklyMarketComment.html

Like I said before even if you're not a technical analyst(and he's not) it is obvious to any observer that there is something there. But that also means that a break could hurt very much. From my experience in the market what I think will happen first though is a fakeout; market will decline beneath it(not just one day intraday) at some point in the next 1-2 months(possibly 1780-1800). Then will reverse and get back up above it, maybe go as high as 1940-1980 again. However I don't think we will see levels higher than 2000 for years to come. If we make it to the high 1900's that's when the real decline will begin. It's kind of like crying wolf because that time no one will believe the market till it's too late. I've seen it happen many times...I think initially the ~1700 area will support, short(1 month) and shallow(maybe back up to 1800) bounce and then a 300-400 point decline very quickly.

Or, it could just break it and keep going lol. Which is why I don't believe in ever exiting a short position completely during a declining market even if you believe in a short term bounce. Speaking of which and the calls above - buying naked calls is never a good idea even if you are right about the direction of the market. Rises normally happen so slowly, and with declining volatility, which causes the Vega to decline and bring down the price of the option so the Delta plays catch up and you end up making nothing. Nothing worse than being right and making nothing. On the other hand buying naked puts in a declining market can actually work pretty well because the Vega will actually rise due to volatility and sort of compensate for the Theta.

And if you think that's all Greek well that's because it is!

BTW with this market closed for such a long weekend these last few days I was actually on delivery duty. It being Vday and all we needed more drivers and when I can do it myself I do it myself instead of paying someone else to do it for me. So I ended up driving for hours a day and getting out of my vehicle for minutes at a time several dozen times in -20 degree weather lol...still know what working hard is like, for sure, market is extremely hard work as well, but I'll take it over most jobs.