One Year To Nowhere

[OriZ 3,157]

time to fire the editor

Hey, there's a reason that I am not a journalist

[Expat1 971]

Speaking of 1500's...once they come and make no mistake about it they will come(although for final confirmation of it I need at least a weekly close under 1820 in the S&P500 which is the same level I mentioned in some thread here that I cannot find in Feb 2014 - two years ago the S&P needs to move above and stay above in order to be "good to go" as I put it at the time. Several days later it did that, and then tested it 5 times - in April 2014, Oct 2014, slightly higher test at 1870 Aug and Sep 2015, and now again in Jan(slightly lower intraday at 1812...it is not difficult to see even if you do not believe in alot of technical levels that this is pretty strong support - and I believe the line in the sand between something that might still be salvaged albeit a very low probability, and a full fledged crisis). I believe once we go through 1820 then 1570 will come very fast. And that is an interesting level because it happens to also be the area of the 2000 and 2007 tops. This means 16 years to nowhere. Looking forward because I think the market will go lower than that still, it means that if someone who got told "there's never a bad time to invest in the market" 16 years ago, say they were 40, saved money for it all their life. They thought they were being reasonable, they don't care about short term 5-10 years they are looking at 20 years when they are 60, well they got in right at the 2000 top, by the time this cycle is done it will be 2017(I believe) at much lower levels(900-1300), will take a few years to climb back up to around 1600...hey whaddya know, at 2020 it's 20 years to nowhere! 20 years and they will have nothing to show for it. Yes I am getting a little bit ahead of myself but remember also the long term dow chart Expatty I believe it was posted, and I pointed out the periods of 20 years in it where the market goes nowehere, so it makes perfect sense.

That is what happens when bubbles are aritifcally encouraged and inflated. The lower longer term return is already baked in the cake due to the higher short term return.

Well said

[OriZ 3,157]

I want to add one thing and that is that following long periods of no net progress(roughly every other 20 years) the next 20 years tend to produce gains of up to ten fold. I would not be surprised to see the S&P500 at 15,000 at 2040.

But now we're really getting ahead of ourselves. All I know is great opportunities will abound, soon. Now is just not the time.

[OriZ 3,157]

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/541923-california-tops-other-states-in-job-growth/?p=7544890

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/541923-california-tops-other-states-in-job-growth/?p=7545326

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

Ahhh I love reminiscing about old times.

But the important thing to take away from those threads is not even my own posts but to go back and read everyone else's as well. One can definitely learn a thing or two about humility.

Edited February 7, 2016 by OriZ

[Expat1 971]

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/541923-california-tops-other-states-in-job-growth/?p=7544890

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/541923-california-tops-other-states-in-job-growth/?p=7545326

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

Ahhh I love reminiscing about old times.

But the important thing to take away from those threads is not even my own posts but to go back and read everyone else's as well. One can definitely learn a thing or two about humility.

Noticed an article about the banking sector today. Banking is exactly where it was in 1996. Remember your 20 yr cycle.

Good valuations too

Markets dipping nicely towards my range. Almost 2 yrs to nowhere. Aint feeling sorry for the dollar cost averagers either. Warned em. They've lost a piece of every deposit made in the last 18 months and aint made a dime on anything they invested before in that time.

Looks like a rough week. Wouldnt surprise me to see a cap to gdp below 1 by thursday

[OriZ 3,157]

Down today because the Broncos won?

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/superbowlindicator.asp

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/584853-superbowl-50-comments-predictions/?p=8000247

Naaahh man there's alot of names in the trading world for what we saw today but lets just call it a trap...see the market is already well off the lows, and still well within my sideways range. What they did today was lure some amateurs into shorts, and now back up we go, till those give up their shorts and flip long, and then down we'll go again.

I do have one concern though and that is that the S&P closed last week below 1890, and gapped down way below it today to start this week. If it does not recover and close above it in the next week or two then they will go through 1820 like a knife through butter.

The 20 year cycle is more about the broad market and not sectors. While cheap, I think banks are far from a bargain. I don't see a scenario where the market declines and banks hold up - quite the contrary, as usual they are the leaders of this. In 2006-2009 it was subprime exposure and now it's oil related but I think when all this is said and done there will be more bailouts needed.

Edited February 8, 2016 by OriZ

[X Factor 1,112]

Naaahh man there's alot of names in the trading world for what we saw today but lets just call it a trap...see the market is already well off the lows, and still well within my sideways range. What they did today was lure some amateurs into shorts, and now back up we go, till those give up their shorts and flip long, and then down we'll go again.

Exactly. A trap.

[OriZ 3,157]

Exactly. A trap.

Remember the days when those would fool us and we would be on the losing side? lol everyone's gotta start somewhere

[X Factor 1,112]

Remember the days when those would fool us and we would be on the losing side? lol everyone's gotta start somewhere

I remember too well. You had to last long enough to learn from your lessons. Good thing early on I had good money management skills to survive

[OriZ 3,157]

Whereas at some point during 2016 I can definitely see oil around $50 a barrel, I only see gold at $1200-1400 an ounce. Considering oil right now is in the mid 30's and gold in the mid 1000's...percentage wise of course oil's rally will be larger. But generally speaking across the board I would say 30-50%.

Gold...already met initial target ~1200...that was quick, nice rally.

Oil still struggling.

[Expat1 971]

Gold...already met initial target ~1200...that was quick, nice rally.

Oil still struggling.

I'm running of things to buy. I might just start digging out back see if I can make a lucky strike.

https://video.search.yahoo.com/video/play;_ylt=A0LEV0_FnbpWVgQAN6lXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTByMjB0aG5zBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzYw--?p=arab+golfer+strikes+oil&back=https%3A%2F%2Fsearch.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%3Fp%3Darab%2Bgolfer%2Bstrikes%2Boil%26type%3DC011US714D20140811%26ei%3DUTF-8&fr=%26fr%3Dmcafee&turl=http%3A%2F%2Fts3.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOVP.V96d92f413fec93db2414f583d27680bb%26pid%3D15.1&rurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dpd_mW3WW40o&#######=Lucky+Arab+Aid&l=59&vid=f3baf7aec46dc1d3d7384dcca87e941c&sigr=11bplkm60&sigb=12q9pv3up&sigt=10en5g981&sigi=12bvirf24

Edited February 10, 2016 by Expat1

[OriZ 3,157]

Not a chance in hell.

What we're seeing is an anticipated bounce from oversold conditions. I still believe in the range I mentioned several weeks ago 1800-2000 on the S&P500 give or take 50 points till spring time. But then, I think we will see 1500-1600, and later on in the year, 1200-1300, and possibly lower.

Was a beautiful rally today, that brought me right to the point I wanted for my first portion of added short, I got in right at the close, along with putting back in the portion that was sold the other day at 1880. Now we wait.

I remember too well. You had to last long enough to learn from your lessons. Good thing early on I had good money management skills to survive

Anybody ever watch the movie Cube? When he was sitting there sayin "trap, trap, trap"...that's what this reminds me of .

Now that's not to say whoever shorted at 1830 at yesterday's lows won't make any money(as previously mentioned I myself have added a sizeable amount at 1940 a week and a half ago) if they hold on to it long enough(so long as it's not via options that expire this month), as you all know I think we will resume declining shortly(and in fact as I have stated if they don't go over 1880-1890 then 1820 won't be able to keep supporting for much longer) but the thing is whoever got in at 1830 is also probably the type of trader to throw in the towel right when the bounce is done. The market is vicious to those who are not disciplined and don't do their homework. My guess is some of them may have already been stopped out at today's highs around 1867. If enough of them got stopped out, then it could start rollin very soon.

15 min chart:

Daily chart:

Regardless of the immediate term, I do think that at some point in the summer we will see a 20-25% decline in a matter of a couple of weeks.

[OriZ 3,157]

While cheap, I think banks are far from a bargain. I don't see a scenario where the market declines and banks hold up - quite the contrary, as usual they are the leaders of this. In 2006-2009 it was subprime exposure and now it's oil related but I think when all this is said and done there will be more bailouts needed.

The great unraveling is already beginning:

https://www.bespokepremium.com/the-closer/the-closer-2816-financials-freakout/

[Expat1 971]

The great unraveling is already beginning:

https://www.bespokepremium.com/the-closer/the-closer-2816-financials-freakout/

Havent bought a thing lol. Dont add me to anyone's gamebag.

Who was it swearing by averaging awhile back? Wonder how thats working out

[OriZ 3,157]

I'm running of things to buy. I might just start digging out back see if I can make a lucky strike.

https://video.search.yahoo.com/video/play;_ylt=A0LEV0_FnbpWVgQAN6lXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTByMjB0aG5zBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzYw--?p=arab+golfer+strikes+oil&back=https%3A%2F%2Fsearch.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%3Fp%3Darab%2Bgolfer%2Bstrikes%2Boil%26type%3DC011US714D20140811%26ei%3DUTF-8&fr=%26fr%3Dmcafee&turl=http%3A%2F%2Fts3.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOVP.V96d92f413fec93db2414f583d27680bb%26pid%3D15.1&rurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dpd_mW3WW40o&#######=Lucky+Arab+Aid&l=59&vid=f3baf7aec46dc1d3d7384dcca87e941c&sigr=11bplkm60&sigb=12q9pv3up&sigt=10en5g981&sigi=12bvirf24

Haha. I don't think that will help much right now lol