One Year To Nowhere

[X Factor 1,112]

Yep risk is very much present

[Expat1 971]

This keeps up and the title will have to be reported as misleading. We're about 2 1/2 years to nowhere.

[OriZ 3,157]

This keeps up and the title will have to be reported as misleading. We're about 2 1/2 years to nowhere.

Soon to be 5

[OriZ 3,157]

Bill Gross:

https://www.janus.com/bill-gross-investment-outlook?utm_campaign=Bill%20Gross%20Feb%20IO&utm_medium=social%20&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=Bill_Gross_Feb

[OriZ 3,157]

They got close today on the S&P cash with 1960 - but the futures overnight were up much more and met the target completely. Then they started weakening, by the time markets opened the cash index only managed 1960, and then reversed and closed 1% down. Even the good jobs numbers today could not help(probably peak numbers if the market continues going south as like I said jobs are the most lagging piece of data in existence). I'll take it.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/05/us-created-151000-jobs-in-jan-vs-190000-est-unemployment-rate-at-49.html

[Expat1 971]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/05/us-created-151000-jobs-in-jan-vs-190000-est-unemployment-rate-at-49.html

OOPS @ the jobs report.

But good news! The "tear your face off rally" moron is back to let us know that the bottom will be next week. Please poise all fingers on all possible buy buttons.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/05/saut-expects-bottom-next-week-then-stock-rally.html

To me? When this idiot opens his mouth that's a sure sell signal. He must have some contracts coming up next week LOL..

[OriZ 3,157]

Someone should remind him that the bottom was already over 2 weeks ago. A short term bottom that was called here in this very forum. I think they will keep going sideways for the next couple weeks before taking another small dip, but still remain roughly in my 1800-2000 range till spring.

[X Factor 1,112]

I think there will be downward pressure on the markets until the end of May when the market has a clearer picture on who the presidential candidate will be.

[OriZ 3,157]

I actually think the heaviest selling will come after May. That's what I'm seeing - and I don't go by the news as the market is its own boss.

In any case I think by Oct we're in the 1500's.

[OriZ 3,157]

Check out gold, quite the rally

[Expat1 971]

Check out gold, quite the rally

Yeah dimmit. Gonna cut into the size of my little gold biscuits.

[Expat1 971]

I actually think the heaviest selling will come after May. That's what I'm seeing - and I don't go by the news as the market is its own boss.

In any case I think by Oct we're in the 1500's.

I don't think anybody's hearing ya. Because the market "can't be timed". LOL........

[OriZ 3,157]

I don't think anybody's hearing ya. Because the market "can't be timed". LOL........

Let this thread serve as eternal proof, that tops and bottoms(we'll get there) can, indeed be caught

Hey, that came out kind of kinky.

[Expat1 971]

Let this thread serve as eternal proof, that tops and bottoms(we'll get there) can, indeed be caught

Hey, that came out kind of kinky.

time to fire the editor

[OriZ 3,157]

Speaking of 1500's...once they come and make no mistake about it they will come(although for final confirmation of it I need at least a weekly close under 1820 in the S&P500 which is the same level I mentioned in some thread here that I cannot find in Feb 2014 - two years ago the S&P needs to move above and stay above in order to be "good to go" as I put it at the time. Several days later it did that, and then tested it 5 times - in April 2014, Oct 2014, slightly higher test at 1870 Aug and Sep 2015, and now again in Jan(slightly lower intraday at 1812...it is not difficult to see even if you do not believe in alot of technical levels that this is pretty strong support - and I believe the line in the sand between something that might still be salvaged albeit a very low probability, and a full fledged crisis). I believe once we go through 1820 then 1570 will come very fast. And that is an interesting level because it happens to also be the area of the 2000 and 2007 tops. This means 16 years to nowhere. Looking forward because I think the market will go lower than that still, it means that if someone who got told "there's never a bad time to invest in the market" 16 years ago, say they were 40, saved money for it all their life. They thought they were being reasonable, they don't care about short term 5-10 years they are looking at 20 years when they are 60, well they got in right at the 2000 top, by the time this cycle is done it will be 2017(I believe) at much lower levels(900-1300), will take a few years to climb back up to around 1600...hey whaddya know, at 2020 it's 20 years to nowhere! 20 years and they will have nothing to show for it. Yes I am getting a little bit ahead of myself but remember also the long term dow chart Expatty I believe it was posted, and I pointed out the periods of 20 years in it where the market goes nowehere, so it makes perfect sense.

That is what happens when bubbles are aritifcally encouraged and inflated. The lower longer term return is already baked in the cake due to the higher short term return.

Edited February 6, 2016 by OriZ