One Year To Nowhere

[Expat1 971]

Negative breadth on two consecutive positive closes is not a joke.

Another 10-15% and I'm going to start dip buying in sectors

[X Factor 1,112]

The carnage continues

[OriZ 3,157]

Another 10-15% and I'm going to start dip buying in sectors

Too early man, way too early...but...you're a big boy

[X Factor 1,112]

I am 99% in cash. It's a good feeling

[OriZ 3,157]

Mark my words, by the time this cycle is over AMZN, GOOG, MSFT etc will be cut by at least a third if not half or more. Talk about overpriced.

Decent start, these last few days. Don't touch those stocks folks.

AAPL included, forgot it in the original post. And a few more "high flyers".

[OriZ 3,157]

Better breadth today, healthier rise...that might be enough for another stab at 1950-1980, but we'll see.

[Expat1 971]

I am 99% in cash. It's a good feeling

I hear you

[Expat1 971]

Decent start, these last few days. Don't touch those stocks folks.

AAPL included, forgot it in the original post. And a few more "high flyers".

On another note it seems my mild interest in energy as a sector is shared

[OriZ 3,157]

On another note it seems my mild interest in energy as a sector is shared

Yes, just like I said before energy is kind of interesting only because I believe oil will see $50 this year...makes no difference if there is further downside first, as even $10(don't get me wrong, I certainly don't think it will hit that) should not change that target.

Butttttt.....I like for trends to be uniform. Even for stock or sector picking - normally when it rains it pours - on everyone(or most). What I would like to see is not only valuations in the broad market coming down to an acceptable level that we have discussed, but also a material improvement in market internals and technicals. Once those things happen I will know a bottom is at hand and then almost every sector will be a good idea.

[Expat1 971]

Yes, just like I said before energy is kind of interesting only because I believe oil will see $50 this year...makes no difference if there is further downside first, as even $10(don't get me wrong, I certainly don't think it will hit that) should not change that target.

Butttttt.....I like for trends to be uniform. Even for stock or sector picking - normally when it rains it pours - on everyone(or most). What I would like to see is not only valuations in the broad market coming down to an acceptable level that we have discussed, but also a material improvement in market internals and technicals. Once those things happen I will know a bottom is at hand and then almost every sector will be a good idea.

Do NOT bet on 50 dollar oil. It is NOT in the cards this year.

[Expat1 971]

Better breadth today, healthier rise...that might be enough for another stab at 1950-1980, but we'll see.

I believe it might tip over again today. Still waiting for that tear your face off rally.

[OriZ 3,157]

Do NOT bet on 50 dollar oil. It is NOT in the cards this year.

We'll have to wait and see And I'm not trading it at the moment as my system is still showing short - in fact my weekly system has been short oil since Aug 2014 at $95, and hasn't changed since. But I started calling oil's decline at around 105 almost a year sooner with some forward looking indicators. Monthly system has been short oil since 9/14 at $91. Same deal now. It did not change to long yet but I'm smelling a change this year. Like I said a massive rally is brewing, a rally that I think will surprise people. But I will update when and if my system actually goes long.

I believe it might tip over again today. Still waiting for that tear your face off rally.

Sure looks like it right now. Not enough strength to muster a reasonable size rally. I think we might need to break the Aug/Sep lows first before we can see more than 1-2% up. Target still 1800. But I don't see much lower than that until spring time - I think we will end up in a range between 1800-2000 give or take 50 points.

[ExPatty 502]

Futures down magnificently today. I told myself a while ago if the DOW gets under 16k I'd move the last bits I have in money market into the market, but it hasn't been that low in a few months and I missed my arbitrary cut off last time.

Oil down under $30 today, wow. I can't imagine it can stay this low (or lower) for too long.

Interesting to see how much higher it got around the turn of the century and hung out at that high price for many years, except for 2002:

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp

Edited January 15, 2016 by ExPatty

[OriZ 3,157]

Few Select links from today:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/15/bob-doll-i-dont-see-a-bear-market-but.html

This one is funny. I still vividly remember this clown(doll) being wrong all the way down in 2008 as well. I don't know who in their right mind still gives those people their money.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/14/march-could-be-off-the-table-for-fed-rate-hike.html

Started with March, then June, now July...see a pattern? The further the market declines the more this is going to be pushed back(and vice versa). I still don't see it happening in 2016 but if bonds all of a sudden start moving then I will move with them.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/15/market-near-a-bottom-sp-to-2350-strategist.html

Only thing I can say about this one is LOL

[ExPatty 502]

Few Select links from today:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/15/bob-doll-i-dont-see-a-bear-market-but.html

This one is funny. I still vividly remember this clown(doll) being wrong all the way down in 2008 as well. I don't know who in their right mind still gives those people their money.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/14/march-could-be-off-the-table-for-fed-rate-hike.html

Started with March, then June, now July...see a pattern? The further the market declines the more this is going to be pushed back(and vice versa). I still don't see it happening in 2016 but if bonds all of a sudden start moving then I will move with them.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/15/market-near-a-bottom-sp-to-2350-strategist.html

Only thing I can say about this one is LOL

The problem is, I can think of a particular buffoon online (I don't even want to mention his name lest google give him more credit than he is owed) with a significant following of people who called the crash of 2008. And the crash of 2009. And the crash of 2010. And the crash of 2011, you see where I''m going. He's still calling crashes. In fact, he called the stock market as it crashed all the way from the 7k it was in 2009 up to the 18k it was last year. Anybody who listened to him and kept out of the markets got obliterated by the loss of potential gains.

You can find people today who are bearish and others who are bullish. If you look long enough term the bulls are always right.