One Year To Nowhere

[OriZ 3,157]

I think the only reason they even hiked in Dec(apart from bonds finally moving their ###) was to sustain confidence, as they've been talking about it forever without doing it and the fear of serious panic in the market if they didn't do it even once in 2015 started to set in, so they succumbed and did it. If you read the Minutes that were released this week they did it very reluctantly(I'll look for a link later when I have time).

Of course the market is going to correct anyway, it's baked in the cake, but the FED is still under the delusion that it can actually help the market, so it will not want to raise rates into a falling market. That will be a first. Only in inflationary periods in the past has the FED ever raised rates in a falling market. In a DEflationary period such as 2000-2002 and 2007-9 they always lowered them. So, if things get bad enough I actually would not be surprised to see them not only not hike, but actually take rates back down to 0. Anyway we'll see what happens.

[OriZ 3,157]

Here it is

http://www.wsj.com/articles/fomc-minutes-officials-in-december-expressed-significant-concern-about-inflation-1452107043

[X Factor 1,112]

I think the only reason they even hiked in Dec(apart from bonds finally moving their ###) was to sustain confidence, as they've been talking about it forever without doing it and the fear of serious panic in the market if they didn't do it even once in 2015 started to set in, so they succumbed and did it. If you read the Minutes that were released this week they did it very reluctantly(I'll look for a link later when I have time).

Of course the market is going to correct anyway, it's baked in the cake, but the FED is still under the delusion that it can actually help the market, so it will not want to raise rates into a falling market. That will be a first. Only in inflationary periods in the past has the FED ever raised rates in a falling market. In a DEflationary period such as 2000-2002 and 2007-9 they always lowered them. So, if things get bad enough I actually would not be surprised to see them not only not hike, but actually take rates back down to 0. Anyway we'll see what happens.

Absolutely agree with you on this.

[OriZ 3,157]

Absolutely agree with you on this.

Hey just outta curiosity, what strike/s was/were your butterfly/ies on?

[X Factor 1,112]

Hey just outta curiosity, what strike/s was/were your butterfly/ies on?

Here is one of them BOT BUTTERFLY SPX FEB 16 2050/1950/1850 PUT. Very wide wings. I use ThinkOrSwim (TOS) now owned by TDAmeritrade for my options strategies. They are excellent for complex strategies. My rates are 1.50 per contract flat rate. I use other trading firms for my stock trades because TOS isn't competitive for stocks

Edited January 9, 2016 by X Factor

[OriZ 3,157]

I've used them for a while. I get $1 through tradestation. Depending on what I want to do though, sometimes I'll use tradeking. Usually either use spreads, or, if I don't want the theta to screw me up, I use synthetic futures and roll them over to the next month. With my system for shorter time frames though(3 min, 5 min, 15 min) always naked long options, as those change often enough to not be impacted by the greeks much.

Edited January 9, 2016 by OriZ

[OriZ 3,157]

So now we're left with the third such occasion in the last year, the second dark red line(right side of chart). That is where price "escaped" today. Are we going to turn back up towards 1970 right away, or are we going to have a few more days of a crash, first? Well, nothing can tell you that. All I know is, 1970 will need to be revisited, long before we'll see levels such as 1100.

They got close today on the S&P cash with 1960 - but the futures overnight were up much more and met the target completely. Then they started weakening, by the time markets opened the cash index only managed 1960, and then reversed and closed 1% down. Even the good jobs numbers today could not help(probably peak numbers if the market continues going south as like I said jobs are the most lagging piece of data in existence). I'll take it. They could still revisit 1970, but it's not a requirement anymore, good enough for me. BTW, the turn down? Happened after bumping against the bottom band which is now resistance.

There are actually indexes that are already under the Aug lows. NYSE is incredibly close. The S&P equal weighted index is already lower. Russell - lower. Dow Jones Composite - close. Transportation - lower.

I have dozens of technical tools in my toolbox but so far I'm using bollinger bands here because they are the easiest to explain and this is not a technical analysis forum so I don't wanna give too many people too many headaches. But every once in a while I might delve into another one or two.

[Expat1 971]

They got close today on the S&P cash with 1960 - but the futures overnight were up much more and met the target completely. Then they started weakening, by the time markets opened the cash index only managed 1960, and then reversed and closed 1% down. Even the good jobs numbers today could not help(probably peak numbers if the market continues going south as like I said jobs are the most lagging piece of data in existence). I'll take it. They could still revisit 1970, but it's not a requirement anymore, good enough for me. BTW, the turn down? Happened after bumping against the bottom band which is now resistance.

There are actually indexes that are already under the Aug lows. NYSE is incredibly close. The S&P equal weighted index is already lower. Russell - lower. Dow Jones Composite - close. Transportation - lower.

I have dozens of technical tools in my toolbox but so far I'm using bollinger bands here because they are the easiest to explain and this is not a technical analysis forum so I don't wanna give too many people too many headaches. But every once in a while I might delve into another one or two.

To tell you the truth I was expecting a small rally yesterday because the futures were sort of implying 1, 1.5%. Went to bed early, missed most of the trading day, and was very surprised at the indexes this morning. I don't really see firm support yet in any sector, just "rally selling".

Completely opposite of the dip buying last year that was holding the markets inside a trading range.

No problem with the charts - you're navigating through this nicely and it's an imperfect science. Many, many small-caps already seem to be in the 30-40% correction territory, now the "sexy" stocks are taking a beating. I have a buddy who was shorting Disney before their movie was released, good call on his part. He's holding three things: Beer, cigarettes, and cash. His logic: That's all there is going to be demand for when this is all over. Dude is more cynical than I am.

Noticed one of those Fed guys mildly mentioned a couple days ago that it was a mistake for the markets not to start pricing in the hikes. I think they will take a "hell or high water" approach and stick with their plan. Markets are already upping bets on a hike in April but I think the Fed will hike before then.

Russell PE was in the 90's a few weeks back. It has a LONG way to go.

Little surprised at gold. A lot of cash is being pulled out and doesn't appear to be going anywhere. Do your magic, determine where the sellers are putting their money, so that the rest of us can know what not to do.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Expat1

[OriZ 3,157]

To tell you the truth I was expecting a small rally yesterday because the futures were sort of implying 1, 1.5%. Went to bed early, missed most of the trading day, and was very surprised at the indexes this morning. I don't really see firm support yet in any sector, just "rally selling".

Completely opposite of the dip buying last year that was holding the markets inside a trading range.

No problem with the charts - you're navigating through this nicely and it's an imperfect science. Many, many small-caps already seem to be in the 30-40% correction territory, now the "sexy" stocks are taking a beating. I have a buddy who was shorting Disney before their movie was released, good call on his part. He's holding three things: Beer, cigarettes, and cash. His logic: That's all there is going to be demand for when this is all over. Dude is more cynical than I am.

Noticed one of those Fed guys mildly mentioned a couple days ago that it was a mistake for the markets not to start pricing in the hikes. I think they will take a "hell or high water" approach and stick with their plan. Markets are already upping bets on a hike in April but I think the Fed will hike before then.

Russell PE was in the 90's a few weeks back. It has a LONG way to go.

Little surprised at gold. A lot of cash is being pulled out and doesn't appear to be going anywhere. Do your magic, determine where the sellers are putting their money, so that the rest of us can know what not to do.

Well actually I did already bring up the MACD and RSI also, but I'm mostly trying to keep it simple at this point. As time goes by I might introduce a couple more. On the charts that I post I don't strip off some of my indicators so if someone wants to try and figure out what they all mean they can feel free to do so, however, I do crop it as it is a screenshot so there are actually more of them in the bottom that can't be seen. Anyway, First chart is S&P cash, second is futures.

Yes there was a rally it just fizzled by the close. I think this will be the year that will pop the bubble of stocks like AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT etc.

Markets were betting on a hike in March initially, but after the past week this has changed to now a 65% chance in June and not before. I think it will keep moving later and later as it has been doing for years. Yes, in the minutes link I posted earlier they also said it would be a mistake for the market to not expect 4 hikes, but, as I have pointed out before, the FED is always behind the curve when it comes to the economy so I think they are genuinely expecting to raise rates this much for the moment because they are under the illusion everything is going to be fine. Once reality slaps them across the face, as it has across history, they will shift course. Just my opinion, nevertheless should be interesting to see how all this pans out.

I think the sellers are just piling cash at this point, honestly. Gold is building a base. Rallies don't happen overnight and markets require alot of patience, for sure.

[Expat1 971]

Watching IDX, it's getting into the trading range that I like. You know I have an itch to play EM LOL. Thinking around 2500 at 16.5 or so.

[OriZ 3,157]

My honest opinion? Don't even think about it lol

[Expat1 971]

My honest opinion? Don't even think about it lol

As the Saudis say, the "shaitan" is whispering to me. It's about a dollar, dollar and a half too high right now. My interest point puts it all the way back to early 2009 values, on a dollar basis. On a cost/GPD basis it's deeply discounted at that point, down in the lowest depths of the financial crisis toilet.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Expat1

[OriZ 3,157]

As the Saudis say, the "shaitan" is whispering to me. It's about a dollar, dollar and a half too high right now. My interest point puts it all the way back to early 2009 values, on a dollar basis. On a cost/GPD basis it's deeply discounted at that point, down in the lowest depths of the financial crisis toilet.

I say it's about 6 dollars too high right now

[Expat1 971]

I say it's about 6 dollars too high right now

I'm mildly considering. Back in Jan at 21 the Buffet analysis indicated average return of 7.5%, compared to zero to negative returns for the industrialized markets. That was in the mid-20's. Their economy isn't contracting, it's expanding and I think there is hard support at 16. Yield in December was at 2.5%, so my price target is equivalent to 3% with a very low 12-13 PE across the broad market.

30-35 in 2011-2013 was excessive. I like 16-16.5 because the fundamentals are good. I might catch it lower, if a panic switch kicks on.

It's actually been stable on a dollar basis correcting for currency valuations so I'm thinking that the next dump will take it down another 10% and that's all. The currency, I believe, already found a hard floor in the mid-14's around the time I transferred $$ over there.

Edited January 10, 2016 by Expat1

[OriZ 3,157]

I'm mildly considering. Back in Jan at 21 the Buffet analysis indicated average return of 7.5%, compared to zero to negative returns for the industrialized markets. That was in the mid-20's. Their economy isn't contracting, it's expanding and I think there is hard support at 16. Yield in December was at 2.5%, so my price target is equivalent to 3% with a very low 12-13 PE across the broad market.

30-35 in 2011-2013 was excessive. I like 16-16.5 because the fundamentals are good. I might catch it lower, if a panic switch kicks on.

It's actually been stable on a dollar basis correcting for currency valuations so I'm thinking that the next dump will take it down another 10% and that's all. The currency, I believe, already found a hard floor in the mid-14's around the time I transferred $$ over there.

I'm not saying that long term valuations on it are anywhere near as obnoxious as the US markets. I'm just looking at it purely from a technical perspective at the moment. Sure, if you go in at 16 you might make some money in the long run, but technically, there is a good chance it will become even more undervalued so waiting longer might give you an even better entry point. Of course, you can also always budget a certain amount to put in it now, a certain amount if it's say $3 lower, another amount in case it's $6 lower etc. That way you either at least make some on what you did put in, or you have capital sitting there waiting to go in at lower levels should those come. It's a win-win and it's a tactic I use alot while trading too.

Technically right now the way I see it - resistance at 20-21, and no real support at 16(support is similar to that of the August/September lows in the US...should those break here I believe they will break there as well). Really the soonest strong support I see is around $10. Yes, that will mean extreme undervaluation that seems very unlikely and unprobable at the moment - but in periods of panic - I've seen it happen many many times before.

Edited January 10, 2016 by OriZ