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CamiBeracasa

accuracy of the processing times

By CamiBeracasa in Site-Related Discussion - Updates, Ideas, etc.

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Ryan H Grand Master

Ryan H   3,812

Posted
Filed: Lift. Cond. (apr) Country: China
 Timeline
Posted

What is the source?

Our journey:

Spoiler

September 2007: Met online via social networking site (MySpace); began exchanging messages.
March 26, 2009: We become a couple!
September 10, 2009: Arrived for first meeting in-person!
June 17, 2010: Arrived for second in-person meeting and start of travel together to other areas of China!
June 21, 2010: Engaged!!!
September 1, 2010: Switched course from K1 to CR-1
December 8, 2010: Wedding date set; it will be on February 18, 2011!
February 9, 2011: Depart for China
February 11, 2011: Registered for marriage in Wuhan, officially married!!!
February 18, 2011: Wedding ceremony in Shiyan!!!
April 22, 2011: Mailed I-130 to Chicago
April 28, 2011: Received NOA1 via text/email, file routed to CSC (priority date April 25th)
April 29, 2011: Updated
May 3, 2011: Received NOA1 hardcopy in mail
July 26, 2011: Received NOA2 via text/email!!!
July 30, 2011: Received NOA2 hardcopy in mail
August 8, 2011: NVC received file
September 1, 2011: NVC case number assigned
September 2, 2011: AOS invoice received, OPTIN email for EP sent
September 7, 2011: Paid AOS bill (payment portal showed PAID on September 9, 2011)
September 8, 2011: OPTIN email accepted, GZO number assigned
September 10, 2011: Emailed AOS package
September 12, 2011: IV bill invoiced
September 13, 2011: Paid IV bill (payment portal showed PAID on September 14, 2011)
September 14, 2011: Emailed IV package
October 3, 2011: Emailed checklist response (checklist generated due to typo on Form DS-230)
October 6, 2011: Case complete at NVC
November 10, 2011: Interview - APPROVED!!!
December 7, 2011: POE - Sea-Tac Airport

September 17, 2013: Mailed I-751 to CSC

September 23, 2013: Received NOA1 in mail (receipt date September 19th)

October 16, 2013: Biometrics Appointment

January 28, 2014: Production of new Green Card ordered

February 3, 2014: New Green Card received; done with USCIS until fall of 2023*

December 18, 2023:  Filed I-90 to renew Green Card

December 21, 2023:  Production of new Green Card ordered - will be seeing USCIS again every 10 years for renewal

 

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Ryan H Grand Master

Ryan H   3,812

Posted
Filed: Lift. Cond. (apr) Country: China
 Timeline
Posted

***Moved from US Citizenship Discussion to Site-Related Discussion; topic is about the timeline feature of VJ.***

**Moderator hat off**

Given timeframes only reflect updated timelines by others. Some do it scrupulously, others forget, while others choose not to fill one out (completion is voluntary). They may be accurate, they may be off, there's no surefire way to know one way or the other. One important thing to remember is VJ only represents a fraction of what is being processed in a given category.

Our journey:

Spoiler

September 2007: Met online via social networking site (MySpace); began exchanging messages.
March 26, 2009: We become a couple!
September 10, 2009: Arrived for first meeting in-person!
June 17, 2010: Arrived for second in-person meeting and start of travel together to other areas of China!
June 21, 2010: Engaged!!!
September 1, 2010: Switched course from K1 to CR-1
December 8, 2010: Wedding date set; it will be on February 18, 2011!
February 9, 2011: Depart for China
February 11, 2011: Registered for marriage in Wuhan, officially married!!!
February 18, 2011: Wedding ceremony in Shiyan!!!
April 22, 2011: Mailed I-130 to Chicago
April 28, 2011: Received NOA1 via text/email, file routed to CSC (priority date April 25th)
April 29, 2011: Updated
May 3, 2011: Received NOA1 hardcopy in mail
July 26, 2011: Received NOA2 via text/email!!!
July 30, 2011: Received NOA2 hardcopy in mail
August 8, 2011: NVC received file
September 1, 2011: NVC case number assigned
September 2, 2011: AOS invoice received, OPTIN email for EP sent
September 7, 2011: Paid AOS bill (payment portal showed PAID on September 9, 2011)
September 8, 2011: OPTIN email accepted, GZO number assigned
September 10, 2011: Emailed AOS package
September 12, 2011: IV bill invoiced
September 13, 2011: Paid IV bill (payment portal showed PAID on September 14, 2011)
September 14, 2011: Emailed IV package
October 3, 2011: Emailed checklist response (checklist generated due to typo on Form DS-230)
October 6, 2011: Case complete at NVC
November 10, 2011: Interview - APPROVED!!!
December 7, 2011: POE - Sea-Tac Airport

September 17, 2013: Mailed I-751 to CSC

September 23, 2013: Received NOA1 in mail (receipt date September 19th)

October 16, 2013: Biometrics Appointment

January 28, 2014: Production of new Green Card ordered

February 3, 2014: New Green Card received; done with USCIS until fall of 2023*

December 18, 2023:  Filed I-90 to renew Green Card

December 21, 2023:  Production of new Green Card ordered - will be seeing USCIS again every 10 years for renewal

 

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Unidentified Mentor

Unidentified   2,930

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Sweden
 Timeline
Posted

No they are not accurate because a big portion of the members here either don't fill out their timeline correctly or don't fill them out at all. Plus they are not accurate because there are so many people waiting for visas and AOS that are not members here on VJ.





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Penguin_ie Grand Master

Penguin_ie   5,993

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Ireland
 Timeline
Posted

The other issue is, since this was moved from the US Citizenship forum, some USCIS local offices are very small, and there may be only one or two VJ members in a quarter who naturalise through your office; thus, if those people got lucky and got processed very fast- or made a mistake/ got their paperwork stuck, it would be inaccurate as an average.

Bye: Penguin

Me: Irish/ Swiss citizen, and now naturalised US citizen. Husband: USC; twin babies born Feb 08 in Ireland and a daughter in Feb 2010 in Arkansas who are all joint Irish/ USC. Did DCF (IR1) in 6 weeks via the Dublin, Ireland embassy and now living in Arkansas.

mod penguin.jpg

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Captain Ewok Veteran

Captain Ewok   1,891

Posted
Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Singapore
 Timeline
  • Popular Post
Posted

All. Just a comment on the accuracy. hope this helps....

We perform a statistical analysis of the timeline data to ensure estimates are fairly accurate. Unless there is enough data to provide a valid estimate we echo "there is not enough data to provide an estimate". We remove data outiers (many of the timeline folks input they may be wrong) including cases that were expedited. Without getting into details, the timelines get it right within a week'ish for most folks. There is no need to have every entry in the USCIS data base to get this accuracy. You just need to know statistics (which we spent a lot of time getting into our system).

Do we have it perfect -- close!... Is is quite close (we try to nail it within a week for a 3-sigma margin)... yes, in most cases.

I am an Ewok. I am here to to keep the peace. Please contact me if you have a problem with the site or a complaint regarding a violation of the Terms of Service. For the fastest response please use the 'Contact Us' page to contact me.

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blahblahblog Explorer

blahblahblog   36

Posted
Filed: Country: Brazil
 Timeline
Posted

What is the time window that you use for the estimation? I'm asking because I have noticed that there has been a recent increase in the average time for EAD (70 -> 85) recently reported in trackitt and anecdotally here in the site. I'm wondering how long should such a delay last take to become significant in your estimator?

May 29th, 2015 - Sent AOS package

June 1, 2015 - Package received by USCIS

June 4, 2015 - Biometrics Fee Accepted

June 20, 2015 - Biometrics Appointment Letter Received

June 30, 2015 - Biometrics Appointment

August 6, 2015 - I-131 approved

August 6, 2015 - Your card was ordered

August 7, 2015 - I-765 approved

August 20, 2015 - EAD received

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oncefuturealien Community Regular

oncefuturealien   45

Posted
Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Canada
 Timeline
Posted

My timeline's estimated processing time has moved by nearly two weeks, creeping along with the calendar...when I first got my NOA1 it jauntily suggested a range beginning on August 4, and now the range begins August 16.

It is disheartening, even though I know it's only a guideline. However, if it keeps up like this, I will never pass it and feel compelled to call someone :lol:

2009/09/30 Married
IR-1 begins: 2015/07/07 Courier I-130 petition to Chicago

 

 

 

2015/07/08 Petition delivered | NOA1 date
2015/07/10 Received emailed NOA1 (California) 2015/07/20 Received snail mail NOA1
2015/08/25 NOA2 by email/USCIS site (48 days) 2015/09/02 Received snail mail NOA2

2015/09/15 Received by NVC (21 days)

2015/09/27 Case number assigned (12 days) 2015/09/28 Got case number and IIN over the phone
2015/09/28 Submitted DS-261 2015/09/29 Paid AOS fee (IN PROCESS) 2015/10/01 AOS fee PAID
2015/10/13 Received NVC Welcome Letter hard copy
2015/10/15 Reviewed DS-261 (17 days)
2015/10/16 Received IV Invoice 2015/10/16 Paid IV fee (IN PROCESS)

2015/10/17 Submitted AOS package & IV package 2015/10/19 IV fee PAID 2015/10/19 Submitted DS-260 (scan date)

2015/10/20 Re-sent files (new scan date) 2015/10/29 CASE COMPLETE!

2015/11/13 Heard about interview date (phone) (15 days) 2015/12/07 Medical

2015/12/18 INTERVIEW! 221(g) request for additional sponsor. Otherwise good to go!

2016/01/07 Additional information and passport sent back to Mtl Consulate.

2016/01/12 Passport & 221g delivered to Consulate

2016/01/14 Status updated on CEAC; no update yet on ais.usvisa-info.com

2016/01/28 Status updated to READY 2016/01/29 Status updated to ISSUED

2016/02/01 Received Canada Post info 2016/02/03 Got it!

2016/02/04 POE YVR

2016/03/18 Received green card

2018/11/08 Submitted N-400 online

2018/11/09 Estimated wait time: 31 Days  2018/11/09 Estimated case completion time: 11 months

2018/11/10 Biometrics appt scheduled 2018/11/13 Appointment letter received online

2018/11/27 Biometrics appt

2019/02/25 Interview scheduled

2019/04/01 Interview: APPROVED

2019/04/23 Oath Ceremony

2020/04/03 Elected to local office

 

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NikLR Grand Master

NikLR   13,227

Posted
Filed: Lift. Cond. (apr) Country: Canada
 Timeline
Posted

I'm pretty sure when I filed my timeline moved almost daily as data was collected.

You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose.  - Dr. Seuss

 

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