Tracking EP at the NVC (YOUR DATA NEEDED!)

[mag2929 68]

It's not so much about patterns as math. The commonly bandied about one is that 1% of visa seekers for family based visas are on VJ and share their stats. Let's assume that's true, though my belief is that it is very, very low. Now, there are about 12 of us waiting for an interview since March 23rd. That's about 1200 people, minimum, and the number climbs every day. It's been three weeks, so we'll say that 400 people will be added each week that we wait for interview scheduling. This means that the minimum number of people waiting for June interviews to become available as of the first week of May will be 2000.

Montreal doesn't have interviews for immigrant visas on every single day. They're closed weekends. Assuming a 30 day month, that's 22 days that are POSSIBLE for interviews. In May, for example, they'll be closed for Memorial day and the 2-4. June, they'll be closed for St-Jean-Baptiste day. July they'll be closed for Canada Day. May is full, so that takes us down to a maximum of 21 days per month for interviews in June and fortunately Independence Day is on a Saturday and July has 31 days, taking us to a max of 22 days for it. Let's assume there are only four additional days that are options each month where they do NOT have interview dates available to us and do professional development or only interviews for other visa types. (I think this is low, given how bureaucracy works, but we'll go with it as an arbitrary choice--one day per week that they do not schedule for) That puts us at 17 days available for June and 18 days for July.

They'll schedule for June, first. This means that, counting ONLY family-based immigration interviews, they will have to clear a MINIMUM of 117-118 petitions per day they have available in order to just clear the current backlog. I don't know about you, but I don't feel that lucky, given that it's not just family-based immigration interviews that happen. They've created a backlog and Canadians who get approved over the next little while will feel that.

And that is some impressive math! But I will tell you this - I work with math all day long. I used to sit there and calculate probabilities related to my visa application, and few of my detailed calculations came true. So now, I have given up on this. Math does not work for the NVC process, it just doesn't. Explain to me how someone got a 22 day approval via EP? None of this makes sense, and in order not to go insane, I stopped calculating anything. It will happen when it happens, but I choose to think it will happen sooner than we think. And if it doesn't, I am still going to be with my husband at some point.

I understand the frustration. My husband has had his health challenges too, and they continue. I have spent days crying. NONE of this helps. I am focusing on getting ready to leave, whenever that may be. And I am leaving math for work.

Hang in there and I wish you all the best!

[Not a Tailor 1,370]

I'm ready to go. My suitcases are bought and packed and have been for months. My cat is crate-trained. My rats are thoroughly spoilt and my flatmates are prepared for their end of life care. Heck, I've even bought groupons for our dates for when I arrive down there. I'm just out of stuff to do while I wait.

[mag2929 68]

I'm ready to go. My suitcases are bought and packed and have been for months. My cat is crate-trained. My rats are thoroughly spoilt and my flatmates are prepared for their end of life care. Heck, I've even bought groupons for our dates for when I arrive down there. I'm just out of stuff to do while I wait.

AND you're hilarious;) And we, or I at least, will be here to hear you rant when you need to!!

Best

M

[Not a Tailor 1,370]

Sorry, I think that sounded way harsher than I meant for it too. I'm not irritated with you. I'm just irritated with this stupid process and everything involved. It's intensely broken and there's very little I hate more than broken organizational processes.

[mag2929 68]

Sorry, I think that sounded way harsher than I meant for it too. I'm not irritated with you. I'm just irritated with this stupid process and everything involved. It's intensely broken and there's very little I hate more than broken organizational processes.

No apologies needed. I will drink to that!

[eki 11]

Holy cow!!!! That is a pretty impressive and exceptional calculation! I believe you will definitely get a june interview....you missed the previous scheduling by just 1 buisness day. I honesty feel you all who waited for CC for long, deserve to get things moving as qucikly as possible. By the way, I noticed we are both heading to thesame city (Austin); are you ready for the summer? LOL it feels like a chimney in summer! Sending hugs and good thoughts to everyone here!

It's not so much about patterns as math. The commonly bandied about one is that 1% of visa seekers for family based visas are on VJ and share their stats. Let's assume that's true, though my belief is that it is very, very low. Now, there are about 12 of us waiting for an interview since March 23rd. That's about 1200 people, minimum, and the number climbs every day. It's been three weeks, so we'll say that 400 people will be added each week that we wait for interview scheduling. This means that the minimum number of people waiting for June interviews to become available as of the first week of May will be 2000.

Montreal doesn't have interviews for immigrant visas on every single day. They're closed weekends. Assuming a 30 day month, that's 22 days that are POSSIBLE for interviews. In May, for example, they'll be closed for Memorial day and the 2-4. June, they'll be closed for St-Jean-Baptiste day. July they'll be closed for Canada Day. May is full, so that takes us down to a maximum of 21 days per month for interviews in June and fortunately Independence Day is on a Saturday and July has 31 days, taking us to a max of 22 days for it. Let's assume there are only four additional days that are options each month where they do NOT have interview dates available to us and do professional development or only interviews for other visa types. (I think this is low, given how bureaucracy works, but we'll go with it as an arbitrary choice--one day per week that they do not schedule for) That puts us at 17 days available for June and 18 days for July.

They'll schedule for June, first. This means that, counting ONLY family-based immigration interviews, they will have to clear a MINIMUM of 117-118 petitions per day they have available in order to just clear the current backlog. I don't know about you, but I don't feel that lucky, given that it's not just family-based immigration interviews that happen. They've created a backlog and Canadians who get approved over the next little while will feel that.

[Not a Tailor 1,370]

Holy cow!!!! That is a pretty impressive and exceptional calculation! I believe you will definitely get a june interview....you missed the previous scheduling by just 1 buisness day. I honesty feel you all who waited for CC for long, deserve to get things moving as qucikly as possible. By the way, I noticed we are both heading to thesame city (Austin); are you ready for the summer? LOL it feels like a chimney in summer! Sending hugs and good thoughts to everyone here!

I am SO not ready for the summer. I went down for late June/early July last summer and we went on a road trip to Georgia. Austin was oppressively hot. I couldn't breathe, it was so hot. And then we drove for two days and for the first day, it literally rained all day, in sheets. We left early in the morning and barely made it to New Orleans after a full day of driving--it was late by the time we got there. You couldn't see ten feet in front of the car. We drove up to Georgia from New Orleans and Georgia wasn't so bad, but when we got back to Austin, hooo boy I thought I was dying and I hid in the air conditioning.

[eki 11]

Haha spot on! I also visited last summer and immediately i got out of the airport, I was like "honey, aren't you sure this is the HELL that the bible was referring to?" The most annoying thing is that the weather doesn't even cool down at night! But guess what? I am looking forward to the winter down there cos it feels like fall; I know that I wouldn't have to bother about shoveling my drive way or putting on 4 layers of clothing

I am SO not ready for the summer. I went down for late June/early July last summer and we went on a road trip to Georgia. Austin was oppressively hot. I couldn't breathe, it was so hot. And then we drove for two days and for the first day, it literally rained all day, in sheets. We left early in the morning and barely made it to New Orleans after a full day of driving--it was late by the time we got there. You couldn't see ten feet in front of the car. We drove up to Georgia from New Orleans and Georgia wasn't so bad, but when we got back to Austin, hooo boy I thought I was dying and I hid in the air conditioning.

[Not a Tailor 1,370]

I cannot wait for a winter without snow. I was a Chinook baby, born in Alberta--when my mother went into labour, there was so much snow. By the time I was born, the snow had all melted and it was 20 degrees celsius out, in February. My mum always said that was why I hated the snow so much.

[CanadianGirl123 31]

LOL all true!! I AM truly hoping of the same interview date as you guys, so we can have a nice Tim Horton's to celebrate this C R A P being over!!!

Ohhh that would be fun!!!

[CanadianGirl123 31]

It's not so much about patterns as math. The commonly bandied about one is that 1% of visa seekers for family based visas are on VJ and share their stats. Let's assume that's true, though my belief is that it is very, very low. Now, there are about 12 of us waiting for an interview since March 23rd. That's about 1200 people, minimum, and the number climbs every day. It's been three weeks, so we'll say that 400 people will be added each week that we wait for interview scheduling. This means that the minimum number of people waiting for June interviews to become available as of the first week of May will be 2000.

Montreal doesn't have interviews for immigrant visas on every single day. They're closed weekends. Assuming a 30 day month, that's 22 days that are POSSIBLE for interviews. In May, for example, they'll be closed for Memorial day and the 2-4. June, they'll be closed for St-Jean-Baptiste day. July they'll be closed for Canada Day. May is full, so that takes us down to a maximum of 21 days per month for interviews in June and fortunately Independence Day is on a Saturday and July has 31 days, taking us to a max of 22 days for it. Let's assume there are only four additional days that are options each month where they do NOT have interview dates available to us and do professional development or only interviews for other visa types. (I think this is low, given how bureaucracy works, but we'll go with it as an arbitrary choice--one day per week that they do not schedule for) That puts us at 17 days available for June and 18 days for July.

They'll schedule for June, first. This means that, counting ONLY family-based immigration interviews, they will have to clear a MINIMUM of 117-118 petitions per day they have available in order to just clear the current backlog. I don't know about you, but I don't feel that lucky, given that it's not just family-based immigration interviews that happen. They've created a backlog and Canadians who get approved over the next little while will feel that.

I have to say I agree with the others. The NVC does nothing in a set, calculated way so I don't think you can use any sort of calculation to predict their outcome! That being said, I understand wanting to set out the worst case scenario. I did with my Case Complete when I saw what was happening and thought it would probably be early May before I got it (if I didn't get a checklist that is) so I made a commitment to my job to finish out the semester (I'm a high school teacher...math actually haha), agreed to be in a wedding in the states that will take up 2 weekends in June and booked a trip to the Dominican with my hubby for the end of June. Then all of a sudden I got my case complete and was looking at a possible June interview which I never thought would happen. I kind of shot myself in the foot I think...but then again according to your calculations...maybe not! Point is we don't know what it will be. I think we can all agree that May is out but I have a REALLY good feeling that you will see a June interview...I'm even willing to bet early to mid-June for you!! Don't give up hope! And don't do what I did...make yourself practically unavailable for a whole month because your p'd off at the immigration process and just want something to look forward to haha! Sending all sorts of good thoughts your way! I know you need to get there soon so I truly am hoping for you!! And please continue to rant away in the mean time! We are hear to listen and feel your frustrations!!

[CanadianGirl123 31]

Haha spot on! I also visited last summer and immediately i got out of the airport, I was like "honey, aren't you sure this is the HELL that the bible was referring to?" The most annoying thing is that the weather doesn't even cool down at night! But guess what? I am looking forward to the winter down there cos it feels like fall; I know that I wouldn't have to bother about shoveling my drive way or putting on 4 layers of clothing

I cannot wait for a winter without snow. I was a Chinook baby, born in Alberta--when my mother went into labour, there was so much snow. By the time I was born, the snow had all melted and it was 20 degrees celsius out, in February. My mum always said that was why I hated the snow so much.

hahaha oh what a wonderful thing to look forward to!!! No snow!!! I don't know where in Canada you both live but where I am here in Southern Ontario the last 2 winters have been BRUTAL!! I'm looking forward to less snow this coming winter but warm temperatures all year round...ugh what a dream that would be!! I enjoy the heat though. Think of me still shoveling out in nowhere, Ohio come January while you're still tanning yourselves! hahaha

[CanadianGirl123 31]

Haha spot on! I also visited last summer and immediately i got out of the airport, I was like "honey, aren't you sure this is the HELL that the bible was referring to?" The most annoying thing is that the weather doesn't even cool down at night! But guess what? I am looking forward to the winter down there cos it feels like fall; I know that I wouldn't have to bother about shoveling my drive way or putting on 4 layers of clothing

I cannot wait for a winter without snow. I was a Chinook baby, born in Alberta--when my mother went into labour, there was so much snow. By the time I was born, the snow had all melted and it was 20 degrees celsius out, in February. My mum always said that was why I hated the snow so much.

hahaha oh what a wonderful thing to look forward to!!! No snow!!! I don't know where in Canada you both live but where I am here in Southern Ontario the last 2 winters have been BRUTAL!! I'm looking forward to less snow this coming winter but warm temperatures all year round...ugh what a dream that would be!! I enjoy the heat though. Think of me still shoveling out in nowhere, Ohio come January while you're still tanning yourselves! hahaha

Sorry!!! Not really sure why that posted twice...

Edited April 19, 2015 by CanadianGirl123

[Not a Tailor 1,370]

hahaha oh what a wonderful thing to look forward to!!! No snow!!! I don't know where in Canada you both live but where I am here in Southern Ontario the last 2 winters have been BRUTAL!! I'm looking forward to less snow this coming winter but warm temperatures all year round...ugh what a dream that would be!! I enjoy the heat though. Think of me still shoveling out in nowhere, Ohio come January while you're still tanning yourselves! hahaha

Born in Alberta, raised in an area of Ontario that gets an average of 11 feet of snow every year, now live in Toronto, where yes, the last two winters have been just horrid. Gotta say, I love warm and hot, but Austin hot is just TOO hot. When you can feel your lungs shrivel up and dry out at your first breath out the door, that's too much! lol

[mag2929 68]

Born in Alberta, raised in an area of Ontario that gets an average of 11 feet of snow every year, now live in Toronto, where yes, the last two winters have been just horrid. Gotta say, I love warm and hot, but Austin hot is just TOO hot. When you can feel your lungs shrivel up and dry out at your first breath out the door, that's too much! lol

LOL yeah, LA can be like that too. However, I was raised in Ontario, but have spent past few years in Saskatchewan and let me tell you. I would rather shrivel up in LA than bear any more of those -40C winters with the bitter wind:) The funny thing is, my husband LOVES it here. He is usually the ONLY person outside, in how full winter gear (he's a Californian born and bred, has more snow pants than anyone I've met here), walking around during snow storms. My neighbors think we are nuts. Well, that HE is anyways.