I-129F Filers, March 2015 NOA1 date! TSC only!

[Tom and SooGyeong 87]

I think that's the issue we run into when people don't know the difference between the Texas service center and the lockbox. I wish VJ would take our suggestions and fix that issue but I'm sure a mass change would cause a big issue. As much as I would love to believe there are NOA2's for some March filers, it's probably just a incorrectly assigned service center.

Some of those listed are indeed "transferred" to CSC, but not all.

That is why my spreadsheet filters out any timelines that have a shorter than 140-day span from NOA1 to NOA2, so as to not get my hopes up with a false low-average.

Here is one that shows to be 'Non-transferred"

http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/profile.php?id=212141

[Kyle and Linh 64]

Have you filtered that to be only TSC? I don't think I've seen anyone at TSC be approved with NOA1 date in March, but I could be wrong? If that's correct data for just TSC, that's great news!

I only filtered what Igor filters. I know there are CSC people in there, but the data trend is following ImmiFairy data I have seen and they are 100% TSC. Any data Igor has after March is not any good.

I see things both speeding up, and less applications for TSC

Also I think its psychological to TSC workers that the mountain they had in March is getting smaller not bigger. I think that helps speed them up too

[Kyle and Linh 64]

Hi Kyle and Linh, I do hope your Aug 11 prediction is right.

VJ's estimate for my case' adjudication is between Sep 10 to Oct 14.

I hope so too. But I know my data is off since the population of applications has grown over the last 3 months. The prediction was made when I got my NOA1 in March when the cue was a little smaller. For me I think I have a 40% chance in August. So I may make my date. I have seen one person with the same NOA1 get approved on ImmaFairy data so I remain optimistic and hope I am in the front end of the statistical curve.

Your application however I think will beat the VJ dates by a lot. Applications from the PI are still getting priority so you may be tapped in July or August. Stay hopeful. Good Luck.

[educator_71 22]

Do I count my NOA1 as the date i got the text or the date USCIS says they received it? Could make a difference. i got my text on 3-20 but USCIS states they received it on 3/23/15.

[Tom and SooGyeong 87]

Do I count my NOA1 as the date i got the text or the date USCIS says they received it? Could make a difference. i got my text on 3-20 but USCIS states they received it on 3/23/15.

My understanding is that USCIS places the petitions in a Queue, or a waiting line for processing, in the order they are received, like Court cases. My guess is that the date the USCIS states Trumps your email date. However, that's only my supposition. Since the dates in question are only 3 days apart, in a line that is taking approximately 150 to 160 days, I think that you are safe either way.

'Don't sweat the petty things, and don't pet the sweaty things."

Will Rogers

[Unshakable Faith 493]

Do I count my NOA1 as the date i got the text or the date USCIS says they received it? Could make a difference. i got my text on 3-20 but USCIS states they received it on 3/23/15.

Use the date on the USCIS website if you want the correct NOA1 date.

[dsldesch 27]

Do I count my NOA1 as the date i got the text or the date USCIS says they received it? Could make a difference. i got my text on 3-20 but USCIS states they received it on 3/23/15.

It's strange that they're different. To my understanding, the date listed as NOA1 should be the same as the date you received the text. However, as others have said, in the scheme of things, a few days difference probably won't mean much either way.

Personally, while I'm glad to see there's speculation that things are speeding up at TSC, my worry is if I expect anything too soon, it'll be simply crushing if the date rolls around and we still haven't heard anything. Then again, I'll be with my guy from this Tuesday through August 8, and it would truly be something if we happened to get our NOA2 while we were together. God, I wouldn't be able to keep from crying.

[Unshakable Faith 493]

It's strange that they're different. To my understanding, the date listed as NOA1 should be the same as the date you received the text. However, as others have said, in the scheme of things, a few days difference probably won't mean much either way.

Personally, while I'm glad to see there's speculation that things are speeding up at TSC, my worry is if I expect anything too soon, it'll be simply crushing if the date rolls around and we still haven't heard anything. Then again, I'll be with my guy from this Tuesday through August 8, and it would truly be something if we happened to get our NOA2 while we were together. God, I wouldn't be able to keep from crying.

I got my text on the 9th but my actually NOA1 date is on the 6th. I guess they send you the text after the your case is put in the system which may take a few days after they accept it. That's probably where the difference in days come from.

[Tom and SooGyeong 87]

Monday Update on TSC Petition Approval Times

From Igor's List - 129F K1 Filers to the TSC only (as of 7-13-15)

(above 130 days) (above 130 days)

NOA1 | VJ Posted | NOA2 >130 Days | % of Total Postings | Avg. NOA1-NOA2 |

Aug 2014 | 213 | 122 | 57% | 204 days |

Sept 2014 | 270 | 146 | 54% | 217 days |

Oct 2014 | 251 | 131 | 52% | 215 days |

Nov 2014 | 202 | 90 | 45% | 193 days |

Dec 2014 | 202 | 78 | 39% | 177 days |

Jan 2015 | 193 | 35 (+11 new) | 12% | 164 days (no chg.) |

Feb 2015 | 190 | 5 (+2 new) | 2% | 145 days (+ 1 day) |

Will post another update next Monday, or sooner if a large number of approvals are listed.

'Always drink upstream from the herd...'

[Kyle and Linh 64]

Monday Update on TSC Petition Approval Times

From Igor's List - 129F K1 Filers to the TSC only (as of 7-13-15)

(above 130 days) (above 130 days)

NOA1 | VJ Posted | NOA2 >130 Days | % of Total Postings | Avg. NOA1-NOA2 |

Aug 2014 | 213 | 122 | 57% | 204 days |

Sept 2014 | 270 | 146 | 54% | 217 days |

Oct 2014 | 251 | 131 | 52% | 215 days |

Nov 2014 | 202 | 90 | 45% | 193 days |

Dec 2014 | 202 | 78 | 39% | 177 days |

Jan 2015 | 193 | 35 (+11 new) | 12% | 164 days (no chg.) |

Feb 2015 | 190 | 5 (+2 new) | 2% | 145 days (+ 1 day) |

Will post another update next Monday, or sooner if a large number of approvals are listed.

'Always drink upstream from the herd...'

Great Data Tom, you are a number cruncher like me.

FYI I broke down and I have joined ImmiFairy and they have a great database to look at pure TSC data without having the errors to sort through with CSC entries in the TSC data as what you have with VJ Data. Their Terms to get the data prevent disclosure, but for $9 a month it gives a very complete picture of what is going on. Like you I am early March and there have been a few approved there last week. This is looking like a perfect statistical normal distribution with early 3 sigma data ahead of the mean getting approved in March.

The trend is the same but they are much more accurate.

Good Luck, keep up your posts

[Tom and SooGyeong 87]

Great Data Tom, you are a number cruncher like me.

FYI I broke down and I have joined ImmiFairy and they have a great database to look at pure TSC data without having the errors to sort through with CSC entries in the TSC data as what you have with VJ Data. Their Terms to get the data prevent disclosure, but for $9 a month it gives a very complete picture of what is going on. Like you I am early March and there have been a few approved there last week. This is looking like a perfect statistical normal distribution with early 3 sigma data ahead of the mean getting approved in March.

The trend is the same but they are much more accurate.

Good Luck, keep up your posts

Thanx. I appreciate the feedback. I do not make any claim to being able to predict what anyone else's approval date will be, not even mine. I am only shoving the reported numbers through a seining net, and filtering out of the selection set the reported spans between each petition's acceptance into the system and approval.

(NOA1 to NOA2) All that somehow squeaked thru in less than 130 days have been disqualified from the selected set to be averaged, (to eliminate the flukes, and the California Deserters. The rest are averaged only in an attempt to graph the average trend from month to month. I was doing this for my own peace of mind, but felt compassion for the many couples roaming around in search of a clue, because they are having to wait much longer than is reasonable. When they DO find a clue, it is more often than not a false prediction in the 'way too long to wait' bracket.

So, I am posting these simple numbers to give a little hope to those who are beginning to despair, by showing a downward trend in 'wait time'. As for me, I am still using the 156 day estimate, and will be pleased with an August 10 approval date, However, if it should arrive earlier.... (July 30th), I would accept that miracle, shout for Joy, and evaporate into the next phase, for which my Lady and I are well prepared.

Blessings,

Tom

[Wors 19]

My estimated approval date on my timeline has come forward almost a month. Another sign things must be speeding up..

[estoyconestupido 4]

Thanks Tom for putting the information together. I do agree with your data and I think that we should all be hearing something soon.

[educator_71 22]

Wow, great news. I am leaving for the Philippines to see my fiance Friday. I would love to be with her when we get NOA2. I'll be there for two weeks. I know that may be pushing it a bit, but it would still be awesome. Good luck to all of you March filers.

[Tom and SooGyeong 87]

Thanx. I appreciate the feedback. I do not make any claim to being able to predict what anyone else's approval date will be, not even mine. I am only shoving the reported numbers through a seining net, and filtering out of the selection set the reported spans between each petition's acceptance into the system and approval.

(NOA1 to NOA2) All that somehow squeaked thru in less than 130 days have been disqualified from the selected set to be averaged, (to eliminate the flukes, and the California Deserters. The rest are averaged only in an attempt to graph the average trend from month to month. I was doing this for my own peace of mind, but felt compassion for the many couples roaming around in search of a clue, because they are having to wait much longer than is reasonable. When they DO find a clue, it is more often than not a false prediction in the 'way too long to wait' bracket.

So, I am posting these simple numbers to give a little hope to those who are beginning to despair, by showing a downward trend in 'wait time'. As for me, I am still using the 156 day estimate, and will be pleased with an August 10 approval date, However, if it should arrive earlier.... (July 30th), I would accept that miracle, shout for Joy, and evaporate into the next phase, for which my Lady and I are well prepared.

Blessings,

Tom

Mr. Kyle,

I really do appreciate your input. I wanted to be clear on that. Please comment anytime. Your posts are thoughtful and well stated, and always welcome.

"One day closer . . . "