72,000 displaced as fighting continues on Mindanao?

[rlogan 2,036]

Thanks for that manilaraf -

It's bad, bad, bad. The President screwed up big time by putting the suspended officer in charge, and violating chain of command. On the one hand he said to coordinate with the AFP, but on the other he was in a meeting where it was clear they were going to keep it secret in order to prevent leaks to the BIFF.

You can't have artillery as a back-up plan when the peace agreement disallows artillery, let alone the problem of not informing the artillery command it is going to be needed beforehand. So then you blow the peace process anyway when it becomes clear the operation will be total annihilation without artillery.

Check this out:

http://fpif.org/the-u-s-military-just-plunged-philippine-politics-into-crisis/

Finally, the original plan was to have a fused team of Seaborne Unit commandos and the Quick Reaction Force. But that was reportedly rejected by the American advisers, who favored having the Seaborne Unit carry out the raid itself and the Quick Reaction Force provide cover — a plan that proved disastrous. The Seaborne Unit, it emerged, had been trained by “retired” Navy Seals and functioned as the Americans’ special unit within the special forces of the Philippine National Police.

The full extent of U.S. involvement remains to be unearthed, but it’s now clear to many that taking out Marwan was a major priority for Washington — not Manila. As one congressman put it, the Mamasapano tragedy was a case of “the Americans fighting to the last Filipino.”

I was asking before why they would launch what is clearly an operation planning to violate the peace agreement - sabotaging the peace agreement - and the answer is to do so on behest of the US. These terrorists are ghastly people, responsible for the Bali bombing and a lot of others. But you can't make an agreement to end a 50 year war and plan to violate it at the same time.

So now, it's war.

[coa24 69]

I'm hoping it doesn't fully dissolve into a full fledged war. My fiancee lives on the island along with her family and I have many friends that have family in central and western Mindanao-all who are Christian. Hopefully Davao continues to stay safe though. What really stinks now is when I travel there I will have to teally keep watch, whereas before I was mostly fine as an American. Angers me too be honest...

Edited March 23, 2015 by coa24

[Cyberfx1024 7,980]

Where is Mindanao is your fiance from? My asawa is from Compostela Valley Province and I love going to Mindanao.

Yes, the American involvement is well known at this time, and it's even being reported that one of the Americans was trying to give orders to some Filipino officers when it started going downhill and the officers were dragging their feet. But at this time I believe that the Filipino officers dragged their feet and let their fellow men die.

[coa24 69]

She is from Davao and has family in the Zamboanga region and Compostela Valley region. And have friends families that live in central Mindanao, Just outside the province where the special police force was slaughtered.

[rlogan 2,036]

Yes, the American involvement is well known at this time, and it's even being reported that one of the Americans was trying to give orders to some Filipino officers when it started going downhill and the officers were dragging their feet. But at this time I believe that the Filipino officers dragged their feet and let their fellow men die.

Well the American was demanding mortar fire, but that was a violation of the peace agreement.

You have to understand that a police action is not in violation of the peace agreement. When you call the army in and start shelling - that is a violation.

So they didn't even tell the military that the raid was happening until it was already underway. "Plan A" was for the police to swoop in and emerge with three terrorists, then go out for beer and pizza at 4 pm.

Plan B was, if things went badly, to call in the military and use heavy weapons in violation of the peace agreement. The military did not even have forward spotters for mortar fire because they weren't in on the planning, and even as reinforcements were arriving they couldn't get to the site because of enemy fire and terrain that completely exposed them. The report says that the radios being used were malfunctioning.

So you have to be understanding of the military having this come as a complete surprise, then being asked to come completely unprepared to a rescue, and being asked to violate a peace agreement with their actions. The people to blame are at the highest level, like namely Aquino.

[manilaraf 28]

From what I've read in the PNP BOI report, the suspended (due to accusations of corruption) PNP Director General was supposed to coordinate with the AFP (namely the area's Philippine Army 6th Division). He and the SAF CO neglected to do this, despite a rather explicit directive from the President to do so.

It wasn't mortar fire that was requested. From what I've read it was rather 105mm howitzer fire, including Willy Pete rounds.

Radios weren't exactly malfunctioning, but were civilian/police Motorola radios that while sufficient for urban beat cops, weren't right for a military-style/commando op. One because the batteries had only a few hours of useful life from ordinary wear and tear, but also weren't water proof and malfunctioned since the plan/operation called for and involved multiple river crossings.

Turns out much communication was done via Cellphone SMS, with itself was hampered due to signal problems in the rural area.

As for the accusation that PHL Officers dragged their feet, some context is needed:

The PNP is a civilian organization under the Dept of Interior and Local Gov't (DILG) and despite running military-style commando ops like what occurred, they are not in or under the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chain of command. Standing Operating Procedures and Comms in and between the two organizations aren't necessarily similar. From what I've read in the PNP BOI report, again, the PNP Director General was support to do advanced coordination with the AFP. THIS WAS NOT DONE. AT ALL.

What ended up happening was once the SAF Troopers were on target and already under fire, the PNP SAF CO sent a text to the AFP (Phil Army Division/Bde/Artillery commander) requesting for backup and artillery support. Not having any Army/Artillery Forward Observers embedded in the PNP assault force, you can't just fire rounds blindly into a grid coordinate, like what was being requested or what's being made out in the media. The risks of civilian and or friendly fire are great, so Arty fire wasn't immediately done. The Army commander did dispatch ground troops as well as Armor immediately, holding off artillery fire until more info was available. (Artillery rounds go where they're aimed, not necessarily where you wish for them to go, and having no FO's in the the troops, and with the SAF troopers having no direct method to communicate with the Arty battery the fall of shot or the needed shifting of fire onto target the mission planners serious ###### up).

Again, in my personal opinion, the PNP could've planned better, especially when your plan calls for artillery support. It would help not keeping the Army, especially the Arty in the dark especially with ingress/egress routes, keeping FOs or those trained to act as FOs in with the SAF. Essentially, a big critique of the BOI report is the mission planner (namely SAF CO Napenas) using a previously never used and thus unfamiliar SOP called "Time on Target" which consisted of keeping the Army in the dark until the SAF troops were engaged and in the target area. As well as the suspended PNP Director General not coordinating with the AFP ahead of time like he told the President that he would.

As an aside, some further suggested reading includes the PHL Senate report on the SAF/MILF/BIFF encounter:

http://www.rappler.com/nation/87136-executive-summary-senate-report-mamasapano

the direct link to the full report is here:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/259015241/Final-Mamasapano-Committee-Report

I haven't read this report yet, but will probably do so in the next day or so.

Edited March 24, 2015 by manilaraf

[rlogan 2,036]

That was my understanding too. One thing to add. The president knew at the onset of the TOT plan and "said nothing". So despite the order to inform AFP, he knew that for operational secrecy they couldn't. All those other raids failed, with leaks beforehand allowing targets to escape.

Aquino had the same problem again. So it was either take risk of high casualties, or high risk of escape from forwarning, due to intermarriage of AFP and locals. He chose high risk of casualties when he did not object to TOT, which was a violation of both orders and protocol being told to his face. He said nothing. he should have called it off, or objected to TOT. (Time on Target, meaning tell nobody until it is already underway.)

[manilaraf 28]

Just as an aside, again, I've always understood Time on Target to be where different Arty units fire in a manner so that all rounds arrive at about the same time on the target.

Time on Target in PNP parlance, or rather SAF CO Napenas' understanding is a little different. For him, it's more like need to know until the operation is already underway.

[VOL 425]

I'm hoping it doesn't fully dissolve into a full fledged war. My fiancee lives on the island along with her family and I have many friends that have family in central and western Mindanao-all who are Christian. Hopefully Davao continues to stay safe though. What really stinks now is when I travel there I will have to teally keep watch, whereas before I was mostly fine as an American. Angers me too be honest...

You will be fine in Davao. Davao is safer than Cebu or Manila for an American. Now if you are traveling western Mindanao then I would not recommend it unless you know where you are going and I would be with body guard.

[coa24 69]

The furthermost I have been in Mindanao (Davao) is Tagum City. and of course the island of Samal.

[rlogan 2,036]

I am going to disagree here somewhat, in a cordial way. I think no matter where you are in the Philippines you need to have it in your mind that the country is different from the USA in fundamental ways. We do not have wars going on in our country with different militant groups who do assassinations, kidnap for ransom, etc. In fact, the level of poverty and corruption alone changes things considerably from the USA.

I certainly agree that in Davao City you are safer than Marawi City or Zamboanga, parading around with your young Filipina. But you still need an awareness. They go outside their regions to bomb hotels, discos, Easter parades and so forth - that's why these terrorists were being sought. Because they pant bombs not in their heartland amongst friends, but outside embassies and so forth.

Because these groups have aligned themselves with ISIS in particular, Americans become greater targets than before. So I think this calls for heightened situational awareness.

[coa24 69]

You get watched in Davao as well. My last trip there my fiancee and we decided to take a different route because they were watching more than usual. Other than that Davao has a good mayor (actually enjoy/like Davao). Remember in August when I was there they arrested someone tight beside me while eating.

Edited March 24, 2015 by coa24

[Cyberfx1024 7,980]

The furthermost I have been in Mindanao (Davao) is Tagum City. and of course the island of Samal.

You need to get out and explore alittle bit. I love the Davao area and I have traveled extensively throughout Davao City, Davao Del Norte, and Compostela Valley. When my asawa says it isn't safe then we don't go there, but the vast majority of the time I have had a good time and not in doubt about my safety. Go explore Compostela Valley and have a good time, just stay away from the Pantukan area. My wife is from New Bataan and there is known NPA activity up there, but as long as you are doing nothing bad (criminal) then you should be good.

[Cyberfx1024 7,980]

You get watched in Davao as well. My last trip there my fiancee and we decided to take a different route because they were watching more than usual. Other than that Davao has a good mayor (actually enjoy/like Davao). Remember in August when I was there they arrested someone tight beside me while eating.

Yes I have been watched myself while there but I am not afraid at all. I also don't stay at the Marco Polo, since the vast majority of westerners stay there. Duterte is a very smart man and ruthless in his ability to keep a safe city. Have you ever heard of the DDS, that's what he is known for and he doesn't care at all. It helps keep the city safe and for that I am glad. Yes, they do have incidences in Davao City but those are few and far between.

If you are there in June COA24 we should meet up. So I take your fiance's immediate family lives in Davao City?

[coa24 69]

You need to get out and explore alittle bit. I love the Davao area and I have traveled extensively throughout Davao City, Davao Del Norte, and Compostela Valley. When my asawa says it isn't safe then we don't go there, but the vast majority of the time I have had a good time and not in doubt about my safety. Go explore Compostela Valley and have a good time, just stay away from the Pantukan area. My wife is from New Bataan and there is known NPA activity up there, but as long as you are doing nothing bad (criminal) then you should be good.

Was suppose to go to Compostela Vally this past January. But her mom and family feared for my safety because of a string of murders nears her mom and bus attacks by the communists there. I have always had a good time there and really enjoyed the people and their hospitality. Not only that I have always felt safe when around them.

She has family that lives in Compostela Valley (mom and aunts) and others in Pagadian.

I feel bad for the people there and what they have to endure with the fighting, attacks, and kidnappings. Sad...

Edited March 24, 2015 by coa24