March 2015 K-1 Filers

[Kyle and Linh 64]

Stephanie C:

I would love to get my hands on monthly data. The only data I can find from USCIS is this http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all_forms_performancedata_fy2015_qtr1.pdf

[Kyle and Linh 64]

I'm somewhat confused by your methodology, and I'm curious if you outline this better in a specific thread already?

In any case, why do you remove data points? Regardless of whether a petition is approved or denied, it still goes through processing, and for the life of me I can't imagine why denied petitions would make things faster for other people; processing should, in theory, take the same amount of time. Furthermore, I see nowhere above any mention of RFEs, which presumably account for a large number of those that would otherwise be denied, and which also (from my understanding) go to the top of the stack when the requested information is sent in, therefore going through processing twice before other petitions.

Finally, it seems as though you're calculating things based on the number of petitions in front of you, but this is based on an assumption that the majority of petitions at the USCIS are repsented by VJ data, and I can't belielve this is a valid assumption. Where is the evidence for this?

To reply: I used this source to build some of my data: http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all_forms_performancedata_fy2014_qtr4.pdf

It is all quarterly not monthly. Wished I could find better direct data. You are correct that rejections take process time, but I can only measure success on the VJ time line. People who make no entries of NOA2 are either rejected or fail to update their time line. It so happens this is about the same percent as rejected in the USCIS data, so I assume they are all rejected. I am making a lot of assumptions on this, but I am having fun seeing how close to guessing my date. In my looking at the process if they said today was my date to get a NOA2, realistically the data is distributed in such a way I could be lucky and have gotten it 45 days earlier, or be like some poor souls who are within the bell curve at the other end and are waiting for 215 days plus 45.

Why do I remove data points? Because some people just stop reporting. So I looked through past VJ data and in an attempt to cull out bad data easily I picked removing the "gray" in the VJ data. It is not perfect but gets me closer than leaving them in. In addition I don't want to go through every profile and determine if each point is valid. For example there are bad entries in the VJ data from people who are obviously in states that go to CSC but show up in TSC. I use the "grey" as some of them will be NOA2 and they will offset the bad data of non grey who are really CSC but show up in the Igor data as TSC. I also ignore RFE. Too hard and most eventually end up being NOA2's

In my process I am thinking we are standing in line like in a grocery store waiting to check out. I am trying to figure out how long it will take for me to get to the register. Frankly I am doing this as a mental exercise or game to keep me from going nuts waiting. By periodically figuring out how many people are ahead of me in line is my way of passing time. It's fun and a love days like yesterday when I see Igor's list filled with 15+ NOA2's on the same day.

Good Luck.

[Kyle and Linh 64]

Pretty cool. Just the word of caution: USCIS statistical data does not support a large drop in application in the Nov/Dec months.

It is difficult to say from the last USCIS data in my skewed look at it. I could see it either way with my rose colored glasses. http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all_forms_performancedata_fy2015_qtr1.pdf,

The next quarter should be coming out in the next few days. It will show Jan-Mar 2015. When that comes out then we will see if my "bubble" will burst.

But I have had fun doing this mental exercise and if I had a better source of USCIS data I would love to crunch that.

Good Luck to you fellow Black Hole Inmate

[Amhara 460]

Holy Smokes, just finished the DS-160 online over Skype with Issam. That was fun. Hahaha, try explaining why they had to ask all those questions about whether he had any explosives training, was a member of any terrorist organization etc. He was like, "Why are they asking me all this?" <<facepalm>>

And evidently his parents don't have a birthdate, I kid you not, they just know the year. <<Sigh>>

It's the United States, my love, not Morocco. LOL.

Yep. My fiance has a DOB, but other Afghans were all born January 1st of whatever year it was and is often remembered by which regime was in power at the time. He also doesn't have a last name, so we are changing his name after the marriage. I like that the lack of emphasize on DOB though.

[Amhara 460]

Then I next factor out the "VJ Greys" from the Igor/VJ Timeline data. These are people who names appear grey in the data. While some of them do get approved, most of them have quit the timeline. So I remove them from my data.

In any case, why do you remove data points?

I would agree with removing the grey names. I know when I first joined, I opened an account eventually. Later, I forgot that I created an account, and created a new one with a different email address. I believe the admins comb through the accounts and there is either an account verification via email response or some other matching method they use because my second account, which used the exact same info, is now greyed out. I couldn't delete it. So these individuals either didn't verify their account or represent duplications in the population.

[thespoons 33]

Hello guys! Wow its been 3 days and this post has been very quiet. Hehe. Looks like everyone is busy with the long weekend...

[nancyandissam 13]

Hello guys! Wow its been 3 days and this post has been very quiet. Hehe. Looks like everyone is busy with the long weekend...

Hahaha, I was thinking the same thing! We're on a countdown to the interview, so nerves are starting to creep in! Ack!

[thespoons 33]

Hehe, you'll be fine. Its really very rare for usem to deny a fiance visa.

[nancyandissam 13]

Hehe, you'll be fine. Its really very rare for usem to deny a fiance visa.

Lordy, I hope so - I made the mistake of reading a post from a USC who said that her fiancé had his interview in Casablanca and was put into AP for two months! GAH!

[Sunya and Tim 55]

Hello guys! Wow its been 3 days and this post has been very quiet. Hehe. Looks like everyone is busy with the long weekend...

I have been enjoying a relaxing weekend and trying not to think about how much I miss my guy. Long weekends are hard. We are gonna hit the 70 day mark this week so I am going to try and focus on our upcoming time together instead. Hope everyone is having a great weekend!!!

[thespoons 33]

Lordy, I hope so - I made the mistake of reading a post from a USC who said that her fiancé had his interview in Casablanca and was put into AP for two months! GAH!

Yeah reading such posts can make you a little bit scared (it happened to me too haha) but in the end it helps you to be more prepared just make sure your documents are complete and up to date. And be honest during your interview

[thespoons 33]

I have been enjoying a relaxing weekend and trying not to think about how much I miss my guy. Long weekends are hard. We are gonna hit the 70 day mark this week so I am going to try and focus on our upcoming time together instead. Hope everyone is having a great weekend!!!

Yeah long weekend sucks esp when youre waiting. Seems like it pushed the processing of your case back a month but its really just 1 day. Hang in there. Noa2 is just around the corner. Cheers!

[Amhara 460]

Hello guys! Wow its been 3 days and this post has been very quiet. Hehe. Looks like everyone is busy with the long weekend...

I was thinking that too!

We sent off our email requesting an interview for the first full week of July. That way, we know we will have time to get the medical exam rescheduled - which will probably need to be the third or even fourth full week of June.

I'm still....waiting....on....tax....transcripts! The bad part is that I work in a government building, so an IRS TAC office is just downstairs. I will need to take leave from work to go wait, but I was hoping for them to just come in my mailbox! I can't remember when I sent the Form 4506-T. Oh well, I need to send off everything this week. I started printed off the phone calling card records and the Skype records (copied and pasted into a Word document), but then ran out of ink. I then sent them to get printed, but they still haven't been finished yet. However, one thing I realized is that the Skype calls we have on my phone are not recorded on my desktop list, so I may add some of the longer calls to that list anyways.

Oy, just lots of stuff. CPA exam, his final exams, his father's health, his family moving, my next CPA exam. Enough to forget to do the dishes!!

[AllanGrace 9]

Amhara,

Do you know that you can get the tax transcripts now online. You don't have to call IRS just to get a copy.

[Amhara 460]

Amhara,

Do you know that you can get the tax transcripts now online. You don't have to call IRS just to get a copy.

Yes, thanks. Unfortunately, a guy name Raul Moreno living in Lake Havasu, Arizona started using my SSN for employment and opened up a bank account with Wells Fargo and Chase, so I put an identity theft indicator on my IRS account in case he wanted to file a tax return to get EIC or jack up my IRS account some other way. So thanks to that **cough, cough** individual, I can't use the extraordinarily easy method of getting the tax transcripts online. I appreciate your input though!