March 2015 K-1 Filers

[Kana Anz 12]

I track them too and I agree provided the rate does not slow down in TSC processing (which it hasn't). My rate is about 161 VJ applications per month.

I am so glad I'm not the only number freak out there!

My NOA1 date is March 11 so we are very close and yes I also think I'll get my NOA2 after the first couple weeks of August. Let's see if we get it right!!

[Kyle and Linh 64]

For those who are interested here is my model and I update it every 5 days.

For a given month I look at the number of people who have NOA1 and I say 86% of these people will get approved (Actual rate from historical USCIS data). So if Igor shows 100 NOA1's for a month I say I have to wait behind 86 of them.

Then I next factor out the "VJ Greys" from the Igor/VJ Timeline data. These are people who names appear grey in the data. While some of them do get approved, most of them have quit the timeline. So I remove them from my data. I use a 10% factor here from looking at past data in the Timeline. So my real population of people I have to wait behind is 90% of 86 or roughly 78 people. Every 5 days I update the population of a month because it does grow and is not static. This will shift around the data but it's interesting how constant my target date has remained over the past 2 months.

I next take my predicted number of approvals and subtract the number of people that Igor says have already gotten NOA2's. For example my data for the month of October 2014 shows there are 231 people right now in Igor's data with NOA1's. Using my formula I predict that 179 will get NOA 2. Igor shows as of May 20th, 114 of them have been approved, therefore I need to wait behind 65 people for that month. I do this for every month until I get to my month of March. Since I got my NOA1 on March 5, I should then have to wait behind 5/30th of the March crowd which now is a predicted 102 people less 15 approved times 5/30 or roughly 15 people ahead of me in March.

So I add all this up on my spreadsheet for each month and as of May 20 and I see there are 483 actual people/approvals ahead of me in line. If I apply the current approval rate of 161 per month (this gets updated every 5 days) the data says I have to wait 2.99 months or 89 days from May 20 to get approval. Adding this up on my computer it says to me that I will likely get my approval on August 17th.

Doing this 2 months ago I predicted August 11. That date wiggled around despite changing data for the last 8 weeks and has not drifted like the Igor data since he is using an average and in my analysis I am counting on the fact that in Nov-Feb time frame there will be 20-30% less applications to process at TSC. If valid we should see the days to approval go down in the next 2-3 months with the VJ prediction data as they begin doing these smaller months.

Good Luck to all

Edited May 22, 2015 by Kyle and Linh

[ce2010 7]

in Ceac status search,

READY means our papers are already gone? or its ready to ship? what other updates i can see after READY status?

[Kyle and Linh 64]

Kana: Love to crunch the numbers. Data if viewed correctly tells the story. If I am approved on Aug 18 you should be 6 days later on Aug 24. Sounds much better than the VJ or USCIS predictions of October.

We will see if our analysis is correct. I am awaiting the data from the USCIS (link below) for March 2015 which should show more data in Jan-March 2015 processing. It should have been posted by now but should shed some interesting light on this

http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-all-uscis-application-and-petition-form-types

Edited May 22, 2015 by Kyle and Linh

[nancyandissam 13]

in Ceac status search,

READY means our papers are already gone? or its ready to ship? what other updates i can see after READY status?

Ready means the embassy has the packet and that you are ready to schedule the interview. Have you seen this guide to help you? It helped me tremendously and also hopefully some of the Russian embassy folks can give you more info. Good luck!!

http://www.visajourney.com/content/k1guide

[TabeaK 517]

Kana Anz;

I track them too and I agree provided the rate does not slow down in TSC processing (which it hasn't). My rate is about 161 VJ applications per month.

If VJ Data is representative of the population (which it should be close) the number of applications are as follows with approval rate; I take out "grey people" from my VJ data since I assume they are not providing data and have quit:

Jul 14: 236 - 85% approved (which means finished since roughly 15% of the applications are rejected which makes 85% approval the finish line for a month)

Aug 14: 214 - 85%

Sep 14: 264 - 80%

Oct 14: 232 - 64%

Nov 14: 188 - 45%

Dec 14: 185 - 38%

Jan 15: 170 - 19%

Feb 15: 166 - 25%

Mar 15: 134 - 15% The data for this month is tracking nicely since about 6 days of applications were sent to CSC so the population should be 20% lower

Apr 15: 32 - 0% In theory there should be no applications since they all should be at CSC

I agree with you the applications drop off after October by 30%, therefore we should start seeing Igor's date drop from the 210+ days to ??? I am a March 5 NOA1 and I predicted August 11 for me. I am sticking to that estimation I made 2 months ago from the data I had then. I think I will be a lot closer than the Oct 1 date the current Igor model is predicting for me.

Pretty cool. Just the word of caution: USCIS statistical data does not support a large drop in application in the Nov/Dec months.

Edited May 22, 2015 by TabeaK

[thespoons 33]

okay so this is this 1099 or what its called right

Oh uhm no. W2 is different from 1099. W2 is for employees of the company. Th 1099misc is for individual contractors.

[dsldesch 27]

For those who are interested here is my model and I update it every 5 days.

For a given month I look at the number of people who have NOA1 and I say 86% of these people will get approved (Actual rate from historical USCIS data). So if Igor shows 100 NOA1's for a month I say I have to wait behind 86 of them.

Then I next factor out the "VJ Greys" from the Igor/VJ Timeline data. These are people who names appear grey in the data. While some of them do get approved, most of them have quit the timeline. So I remove them from my data. I use a 10% factor here from looking at past data in the Timeline. So my real population of people I have to wait behind is 90% of 86 or roughly 78 people. Every 5 days I update the population of a month because it does grow and is not static. This will shift around the data but it's interesting how constant my target date has remained over the past 2 months.

I next take my predicted number of approvals and subtract the number of people that Igor says have already gotten NOA2's. For example my data for the month of October 2014 shows there are 231 people right now in Igor's data with NOA1's. Using my formula I predict that 179 will get NOA 2. Igor shows as of May 20th, 114 of them have been approved, therefore I need to wait behind 65 people for that month. I do this for every month until I get to my month of March. Since I got my NOA1 on March 5, I should then have to wait behind 5/30th of the March crowd which now is a predicted 102 people less 15 approved times 5/30 or roughly 15 people ahead of me in March.

So I add all this up on my spreadsheet for each month and as of May 20 and I see there are 483 actual people/approvals ahead of me in line. If I apply the current approval rate of 161 per month (this gets updated every 5 days) the data says I have to wait 2.99 months or 89 days from May 20 to get approval. Adding this up on my computer it says to me that I will likely get my approval on August 17th.

Doing this 2 months ago I predicted August 11. That date wiggled around despite changing data for the last 8 weeks and has not drifted like the Igor data since he is using an average and in my analysis I am counting on the fact that in Nov-Feb time frame there will be 20-30% less applications to process at TSC. If valid we should see the days to approval go down in the next 2-3 months with the VJ prediction data as they begin doing these smaller months.

Good Luck to all

I'm somewhat confused by your methodology, and I'm curious if you outline this better in a specific thread already?

In any case, why do you remove data points? Regardless of whether a petition is approved or denied, it still goes through processing, and for the life of me I can't imagine why denied petitions would make things faster for other people; processing should, in theory, take the same amount of time. Furthermore, I see nowhere above any mention of RFEs, which presumably account for a large number of those that would otherwise be denied, and which also (from my understanding) go to the top of the stack when the requested information is sent in, therefore going through processing twice before other petitions.

Finally, it seems as though you're calculating things based on the number of petitions in front of you, but this is based on an assumption that the majority of petitions at the USCIS are repsented by VJ data, and I can't belielve this is a valid assumption. Where is the evidence for this?

[ce2010 7]

Ready means the embassy has the packet and that you are ready to schedule the interview. Have you seen this guide to help you? It helped me tremendously and also hopefully some of the Russian embassy folks can give you more info. Good luck!!

http://www.visajourney.com/content/k1guide

so in this stage now i have to pay visa-interview fee and schedule interview??

does anyone know if beneficiery receives package 3 or 4 from moscow embassy or if they will send beneficiery a letter?? or something?

because im confused about package 3-4 and why i have to schedule interview without receiving any instructions from them?? which comes first ..???

[nancyandissam 13]

so in this stage now i have to pay visa-interview fee and schedule interview??

does anyone know if beneficiery receives package 3 or 4 from moscow embassy or if they will send beneficiery a letter?? or something?

because im confused about package 3-4 and why i have to schedule interview without receiving any instructions from them?? which comes first ..???

I'm not sure about Russia, but my fiancé has to pay the visa fee at the consulate the day of the interview. I emailed the embassy asking them to send us the package 3-4 by email but they didn't respond quickly enough for my impatient fiancé who called them several days after the email and spoke to a very nice gentleman who sent it to us by email within the hour. Attached to that email was the interview date, instructions and list of approved doctors with whom to schedule the physical exam. If you can call them, that might be a good idea just to speed things up - I just don't know about the embassy in Moscow how they do things. Perhaps some of our Russian embassy friends can help? What you can do though, if you haven't already is start gathering the things your fiancée will need to bring to the interview - the I-134 and everything that goes along with it.

[JoeyKeano 21]

Called NVC this morning and received the case number (Yay!)

However, when on the CEAC website, entered it and the "Search did not return any data." Does this happen often?

[StephanieC 43]

Pretty cool. Just the word of caution: USCIS statistical data does not support a large drop in application in the Nov/Dec months.

From the data that tsc fairy sends out it looked to me like November 14 was one of the largest months since August for petitions sent in second to February 15

[Sabrina&Chuck 32]

i just called nvc to ask some stuff about my case.. they transfered me to another office guy ask me if my case is in ready condition in embassy.. i said i dont know i just wanna update email guy transfered me back to original call...

i just checked ceac case status that wasnt working for 5 days ... now it says READY TO SCHEDULE INTERVIEW !!!!!!!

so now what to do ??? im petitioner ... please tell me

tell your fiancé

[nancyandissam 13]

Holy Smokes, just finished the DS-160 online over Skype with Issam. That was fun. Hahaha, try explaining why they had to ask all those questions about whether he had any explosives training, was a member of any terrorist organization etc. He was like, "Why are they asking me all this?" <<facepalm>>

And evidently his parents don't have a birthdate, I kid you not, they just know the year. <<Sigh>>

It's the United States, my love, not Morocco. LOL.

[thespoons 33]

Holy Smokes, just finished the DS-160 online over Skype with Issam. That was fun. Hahaha, try explaining why they had to ask all those questions about whether he had any explosives training, was a member of any terrorist organization etc. He was like, "Why are they asking me all this?" <<facepalm>>

And evidently his parents don't have a birthdate, I kid you not, they just know the year. <<Sigh>>

It's the United States, my love, not Morocco. LOL.

It was weird for me too when i completed mine. Hahaha i was amused when i answered no to the first question about human trafficking. But when i got to the succeeding questions i was "why the hell will i want to be part of child labor? Or child army?". F was just laughing at me because it went on for more than an hour. Hahaha