February 2015 filers - Texas Service Center

[hosfam 4]

Hello everyone! I'm a new member and wanted to introduce myself. I don't know if this is the right place to do it but this is my first time writing in a forum ever, as I am usually just an anonymous reader. But I just found this thread and I'm thankful for all the information I got from your posts. It's good to know that my fiance and I aren't the only ones that are frustrated (and we've "only" been waiting for 3 months). Given your information about TSC it seems that we're just as stuck as you are

Good luck to all of you!

Thank u...yea, we all need luck now...ugggh...i can't handle it anymore...3 months already, and as much as im glad for march and april filers..as much im sad for all of us...Tsc

[falcon26 4]

Folks!! It looks like April filers from east coast are being routed to CSC. I heard that a colleague of mine filed now and got CSC. Haven't talked to him. So we are the brave folks stuck in the middle. Going to be 90 days and I can say I am reaching clinical depression levels.

But try to stay positive and hope the calls/skype etc are used for bonding. Sometimes handling situations like these lays foundation for the future. Try to be graceful.

Let us hope things pick up. My prayers and best wishes for the fellow filers and esp the ones who have been waiting for looooong time.

[waiting4awhile 18]

A light at the end of the horrible TSC tunnel perhaps?

I've started tracking all TSC 129F petitions electronically and updating them in real-time to provide a more comprehensive and accurate picture of TSC processing times: http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/548621-finally-real-time-data-on-tsc-129f-receipt-numbers-src/.

Please let me know if you want to get the updates.

[skins4lyfe 4]

A February approval..... Could that be legit?

[StephanieC 43]

It was an expedited case.

[skins4lyfe 4]

It was an expedited case.

Is that a fact? I couldn't tell. I did not see a country tied to their timeline.

[StephanieC 43]

Is that a fact? I couldn't tell. I did not see a country tied to their timeline.

I asked the person and he/she was very kind in responding that it was.

[skins4lyfe 4]

I asked the person and he/she was very kind in responding that it was.

Not surprised... ? good to know though... I hope they speed things up..

[StephanieC 43]

Not surprised... ? good to know though... I hope they speed things up..

Being a Jan filer I have to admit for a second I thought...could it be? Could they possibly be puling from 2015 files now?

[CharlieTanger 76]

Being a Jan filer I have to admit for a second I thought...could it be? Could they possibly be puling from 2015 files now?

They have to soon get the hint that we're just about almost halfway through 2015 and they haven't gotten to 2015 filers yet. Don't ya think? I feel like being a January filer that idea is on our side. They may want to bang out the January filers to make people think they're moving quicker through 2015 petitions. Idk...just a logical thought...

[desi123 21]

A light at the end of the horrible TSC tunnel perhaps?

I've started tracking all TSC 129F petitions electronically and updating them in real-time to provide a more comprehensive and accurate picture of TSC processing times: http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/548621-finally-real-time-data-on-tsc-129f-receipt-numbers-src/.

Please let me know if you want to get the updates.

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can anyone view the thread above??

[desi123 21]

I posted this elsewhere today, I think there is hope in that the applications in the back half of 2014 are smaller than the first half of204 by a lot overall. Low numbers can't hurt in speeding things up. Here is what I looked at

I have spent the weekend looking over the data inside VJ using the tables. It seems to me that in the 2nd quarter of 2014 TSC got killed with more applications they could handle. In looking at our VJ data a number of applications in April and May 2014 were shown here to have moved from TSC to CSC and were expedited. If we can believe that VJ data is a representative sample of what is happening at USCIS for K-1 visa's I think I can see why they are not transferring any cases. The reason is that the number of actual cases (which they know measured in NOA1i applications) in the back half of 2014 actually is going down. Here is my table to show it.

15-Feb 15-Jan 14-Dec 14-Nov 14-Oct 14-Sep 14-Aug 14-Jul 14-Jun 14-May 14-Apr 14-Mar 14-Feb 14-Jan

VJ List of NOA 1 at TSC Only 85 111 126 137 173 191 182 219 192 62 95 221 202 190

VJ List of NOA 1 at CSC Only 65 121 82 65 97 95 102 138 97 94 110 113 96 82

VJ List of NOA 1 TX from TSC to CSC 19 10 16 20 20 22 21 13 21 123 130 32 24 39

Estimated TSC Workload Before TX 104 121 142 157 193 213 203 232 213 185 225 253 226 229

3 Month Average 122 140 164 188 203 216 216 210 208 221 235 236

% Below Peak -43.4% -35.2% -24.1% -13.1% -6.0% 0.0% Peak Done---------------------------------------------------->

In looking at the data its like big rat in the snake and it needs to get digested which is happening. The peak at TSC with applications measured with NOA1 was maxed out the first half of 2014. We show in VJ data that NOA1's were transferred for two months that made the NOA1's dated April and May 2014 shift to CSC. After May 2014 nothing of note has shifted. If you look at the estimated TSC workload (adding in the transferred cases) the Peak happens in August NOA1's and then drop after that the back half of 2014. In fact the 3 month rolling average for NOA1 cases for Feb 2015 is 43% lower than shown at the peak. So to me I would expect the time to process a case will drop from 200 to ? Not sure how low but less cases means faster processing.

Again there are a lot of if's in my analysis... but if VJ data tracks actual data. (that people sign up for VJ before or around getting NOA1). Then there is hope that the process may speed up over the next 6 months.... provided the output at TSC stays grinding out stuff at the same rate.

I see hope here, but will it mean 60-90 days faster? Maybe? For us February TSC filers I am hoping we may drop from 200+ to closer to 150. That is welcome news for me.

thank u, I wish your calculation will work. God bless us all.

[desi123 21]

thank u, I wish your calculation will work. God bless us all.

I checked uscis Website to check the timeline, its good that it says up to march 31st , Sep18th k1 are approved. It means as its May , we are reaching near....praying for us.

[desi123 21]

That's interesting stuff, thank you! I wonder if they always get fewer submissions in the latter half of the year? Anyway, anything that hints at a chance for my case to be processed before late September is good news to me. We are NOA1 buddies, btw!

Uscis website says that up to March 31st they finished approval of September 18th K1 ....now its May Month going on. It means we Feb 2015 fillers are approaching near...but we have to wait . Edited May 20, 2015 by desi123

[StephanieC 43]

Uscis website says that up to March 31st they finished approval of September 18th K1 ....now its May Month going on. It means we Feb 2015 fillers are approaching near...but we have to wait .

Forgive me but I do not follow your logic.