Texas Service Center

[Kyle and Linh 64]

I have spent the weekend looking over the data inside VJ using the tables. It seems to me that in the 2nd quarter of 2014 TSC got killed with more applications they could handle. In looking at our VJ data a number of applications in April and May 2014 were shown here to have moved from TSC to CSC and were expedited. If we can believe that VJ data is a representative sample of what is happening at USCIS for K-1 visa's I think I can see why they are not transferring any cases. The reason is that the number of actual cases (which they know measured in NOA1i applications) in the back half of 2014 actually is going down. Here is my table to show it.

Feb-15 15-Jan 14-Dec 14-Nov 14-Oct 14-Sep 14-Aug 14-Jul 14-Jun 14-May 14-Apr 14-Mar 14-Feb 14-Jan VJ List of NOA 1 at TSC Only 85 111 126 137 173 191 182 219 192 62 95 221 202 190 VJ List of NOA 1 at CSC Only 65 121 82 65 97 95 102 138 97 94 110 113 96 82 VJ List of NOA 1 TX from TSC to CSC 19 10 16 20 20 22 21 13 21 123 130 32 24 39 Estimated TSC Workload Before TX 104 121 142 157 193 213 203 232 213 185 225 253 226 229 3 Month Average 122 140 164 188 203 216 216 210 208 221 235 236 % Below Peak -43.4% -35.2% -24.1% -13.1% -6.0% 0.0% Peak

In looking at the data its like big rat in the snake and it needs to get digested which is happening. The peak at TSC with applications measured with NOA1 was maxed out the first half of 2014. We show in VJ data that NOA1's were transferred for two months that made the NOA1's dated April and May 2014 shift to CSC. After May 2014 nothing of note has shifted. If you look at the estimated TSC workload (adding in the transferred cases) the Peak happens in August NOA1's and then drop after that the back half of 2014. In fact the 3 month rolling average for NOA1 cases for Feb 2015 is 43% lower than shown at the peak. So to me I would expect the time to process a case will drop from 200 to ? Not sure how low but less cases means faster processing.

Again there are a lot of if's in my analysis... but if VJ data tracks actual data. (that people sign up for VJ before or around getting NOA1). Then there is hope that the process may speed up over the next 6 months.... provided the output at TSC stays grinding out stuff at the same rate.

I see hope here, but will it mean 60-90 days faster? Maybe? For us February TSC filers I am hoping we may drop from 200+ to closer to 150. That is welcome news for me.

[uli156 8]

I cross my fingers and toes you are right....

We are october filer and I hope it have an effect for us that are less august and september filers then june and july filers...

So I would be happy about 180 days

Best

Uli

[Kyle and Linh 64]

I am sorry my Excel Table above is out of order and I can't edit it. Here is the best I can do

15-Feb 15-Jan 14-Dec 14-Nov 14-Oct 14-Sep 14-Aug 14-Jul 14-Jun 14-May 14-Apr 14-Mar 14-Feb 14-Jan

VJ List of NOA 1 at TSC Only 85 111 126 137 173 191 182 219 192 62 95 221 202 190

VJ List of NOA 1 at CSC Only 65 121 82 65 97 95 102 138 97 94 110 113 96 82

VJ List of NOA 1 TX from TSC to CSC 19 10 16 20 20 22 21 13 21 123 130 32 24 39

Estimated TSC Workload Before TX 104 121 142 157 193 213 203 232 213 185 225 253 226 229

3 Month Average 122 140 164 188 203 216 216 210 208 221 235 236

% Below Peak -43.4% -35.2% -24.1% -13.1% -6.0% 0.0% Peak Done---------------------------------------------------->

Hope this data is enlightening Sorry for the disconnect

[Kyle and Linh 64]

OK I am still a NEWBIE

Putting the above two posts back together....Sorry, but I think there is some good news after September gets processed. Of course transferring a few to CSC would help a lot

I have spent the weekend looking over the data inside VJ using the tables. It seems to me that in the 2nd quarter of 2014 TSC got killed with more applications they could handle. In looking at our VJ data a number of applications in April and May 2014 were shown here to have moved from TSC to CSC and were expedited. If we can believe that VJ data is a representative sample of what is happening at USCIS for K-1 visa's I think I can see why they are not transferring any cases. The reason is that the number of actual cases (which they know measured in NOA1i applications) in the back half of 2014 actually is going down. Here is my table to show it.

15-Feb 15-Jan 14-Dec 14-Nov 14-Oct 14-Sep 14-Aug 14-Jul 14-Jun 14-May 14-Apr 14-Mar 14-Feb 14-Jan

VJ List of NOA 1 at TSC Only 85 111 126 137 173 191 182 219 192 62 95 221 202 190

VJ List of NOA 1 at CSC Only 65 121 82 65 97 95 102 138 97 94 110 113 96 82

VJ List of NOA 1 TX from TSC to CSC 19 10 16 20 20 22 21 13 21 123 130 32 24 39

Estimated TSC Workload Before TX 104 121 142 157 193 213 203 232 213 185 225 253 226 229

3 Month Average 122 140 164 188 203 216 216 210 208 221 235 236

% Below Peak -43.4% -35.2% -24.1% -13.1% -6.0% 0.0% Peak Done---------------------------------------------------->

In looking at the data its like big rat in the snake and it needs to get digested which is happening. The peak at TSC with applications measured with NOA1 was maxed out the first half of 2014. We show in VJ data that NOA1's were transferred for two months that made the NOA1's dated April and May 2014 shift to CSC. After May 2014 nothing of note has shifted. If you look at the estimated TSC workload (adding in the transferred cases) the Peak happens in August NOA1's and then drop after that the back half of 2014. In fact the 3 month rolling average for NOA1 cases for Feb 2015 is 43% lower than shown at the peak. So to me I would expect the time to process a case will drop from 200 to ? Not sure how low but less cases means faster processing.

Again there are a lot of if's in my analysis... but if VJ data tracks actual data. (that people sign up for VJ before or around getting NOA1). Then there is hope that the process may speed up over the next 6 months.... provided the output at TSC stays grinding out stuff at the same rate.

I see hope here, but will it mean 60-90 days faster? Maybe? For us February TSC filers I am hoping we may drop from 200+ to closer to 150. That is welcome news for me.

[CharlieTanger 76]

I see hope here, but will it mean 60-90 days faster? Maybe? For us February TSC filers I am hoping we may drop from 200+ to closer to 150. That is welcome news for me.

Very interesting stuff. I do hope you are correct with your analysis. It does give some hope! May I ask... do you work with data analysis (profession, schooling...)?

[skins4lyfe 4]

I see hope here, but will it mean 60-90 days faster? Maybe? For us February TSC filers I am hoping we may drop from 200+ to closer to 150. That is welcome news for me.

You are so on point! I love your analysis. I actually was figuring the same thing but did not go into that much detail and you proved my theory. I was looking at the same thing. What we fail to realize it that TSC has a lot of open cases so they are in fact backlogged. But like you said, as September gets processed this month, they will speed things up I believe. I know we are taking a lot of data from VJ but it all makes sense. Also, what I noticed, was that the actual USCIS site has been updated more frequently and the jump to August 2nd petitions being processed (ending on Jan 31st) actually came pretty fast I believe. So I am with you on your theory and analysis. We already see late August filers being approved now so what does that mean for end of March? I believe September filers. So, this will be an interesting month to see if September and hopefully October filers start popping up with NOA2's... Thanks for that!

[Kyle and Linh 64]

Skins: Thanks, I am happy someone else sees the smaller numbers. It's like a snake who ate the big rat. It has to digest it before it moves on and the rats are not as big later in the year Good Luck

Edited March 9, 2015 by Kyle and Linh

[CheekyMonkeys154 27]

I do hope you are right. I see light at the end of the TSC tunnel hopefully. There are a handful of 08/25 - 08/27/14 NOA1 dates that have gotten their NOA2's in the last week. So we are right there, I'm just hoping that they do ours soon. I would like to get him here in time for summer vacation so we can get married then. Does anyone know if they were going to RFE would they probably have done it by now or that would be the same possibility as an approval/denial now? I didn't know if someone does a preliminary check on the paperwork before someone actually works the case and sends out RFE if something was missing. i mean I don't think anything is but was just trying to see my odds of getting RFE. I sure hope not. Good luck to you all.

[mariadulse 4]

August 4th filing date - still no word from TSC. At least they let me file an inquiry to see what's happening with our case status.

How did you file an inqurie? Online or on the phone?

[Pennycat 880]

Skins: Thanks, I am happy someone else sees the smaller numbers. It's like a snake who ate the big rat. It has to digest it before it moves on and the rats are not as big later in the year Good Luck

I hope you're right. I see the smaller numbers but maybe people don't sign up on VJ until they've been waiting for a few months and google "USCIS wait times" or something. I don't know I'm just going to hope that you've got this right That said, my NOA2 estimate from VJ just keeps getting farther and farther away (two weeks ago it was Aug 31-Sept 8. Now it is Sept 7-Sept 14).

[mariadulse 4]

I hope you're right. I see the smaller numbers but maybe people don't sign up on VJ until they've been waiting for a few months and google "USCIS wait times" or something. I don't know I'm just going to hope that you've got this right That said, my NOA2 estimate from VJ just keeps getting farther and farther away (two weeks ago it was Aug 31-Sept 8. Now it is Sept 7-Sept 14).

Hi Catherine,

How do you know that right now it is Sept 7-Sept 14? As I see for K1 is still August 14th

[Pennycat 880]

Hi Catherine,

How do you know that right now it is Sept 7-Sept 14? As I see for K1 is still August 14th

If you fill in your Visajourney timeline, they estimate when you'll get NOA2 based on your NOA1 date. It's all based from VJ data and isn't official. But mine's been moving the sad direction for a month now

[wbeem 568]

How did you file an inqurie? Online or on the phone?

I did it over the phone with the customer services desk.

[Wooderz 314]

I hope you're right. I see the smaller numbers but maybe people don't sign up on VJ until they've been waiting for a few months and google "USCIS wait times" or something. I don't know I'm just going to hope that you've got this right That said, my NOA2 estimate from VJ just keeps getting farther and farther away (two weeks ago it was Aug 31-Sept 8. Now it is Sept 7-Sept 14).

Unfortunately, that's typical because of expedites and people wrongly putting TSC instead of CSC. My original estimate when I filed said December Once the CSC and expedited people who filed around me moved on, the estimate moved back and is at a place now that I think is reasonably accurate based on current happenings.

[uli156 8]

till now only one approval this week at TSC