question about processing time

[kalbitang 6]

Hi Guys.. was checking this website

http://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/tsc/tsc-ptr-02-11-15

and from the looks of it.. are they currently processing June 25.2014 applicants for I-129F finance visas ?

if so that means we are atleast 5 months behind ? it means they will not start touching OCT 2014 I-129F filers until July 2015 ?

any inputs ?

Thanks.

Edited February 20, 2015 by kalbitang

[racheal&david 108]

No. As of December 31st the last petition they completed was 25th June. This report is on the USCIS website in the processing times section. Right now TSC seems to be processing August petitions from what you can gather from people updating their timelines and checking that on Igor's list.

[TabeaK 517]

On here, there are a number of June filers still waiting, about half of July and probably three quarters of August.

I would estimate, at current speed, that October filers will have their petitions looked at in April/May.

[av8or1 246]

October filers in April/May is a best-case scenario, unfortunately. Unless something drastic crops up, the TSC is projected to continue slowing down during the next few months, if not the remaining of the year. WRT the I-129F petition anyway. June/July for October filers isn't too far fetched of an estimate, or so it would seem.

[CharlieTanger 76]

October filers in April/May is a best-case scenario, unfortunately. Unless something drastic crops up, the TSC is projected to continue slowing down during the next few months, if not the remaining of the year. WRT the I-129F petition anyway. June/July for October filers isn't too far fetched of an estimate, or so it would seem.

And where did you obtain this "projection" from that none of us were aware of? Honestly, no one knows how long it'll take...we'll just have to wait and see. I could not imagine it ever taking more than 7 1/2 months at the latest to get a NOA2 (that is saying with the petition perfectly organized and no REFs or issues).

[yuna628 9,676]

I would say that May/June for October would be the best estimate. You can of course hope for April, but I suspect that will not be the case. Despite what the website says it is clear from evidence here that they are actually working on finishing July and starting on with August. There are still a few left from June that they seem to be slowly finishing up. Best advice is plan for the long haul and be pleasantly surprised if it comes sooner.

There is no evidence to suggest that TSC will start getting any faster.

[TabeaK 517]

Well, lately approvals have been pretty spread out - easily 2 months from first to last approval- early for the lucky ones, very late for the unlucky ones.

You can always hope to be lucky.

The remaining June filers are pushing 8 months these days.

Personally (December filer), I am hoping for August/Septemper at the latest.

Will be ecstatic if it shows up in July.

We'll have to wait and see - a couple of days of decent-ish processing does not make an upwards trend.

It definitely sucks that the K1 petitions get treated like the read-headed step children...

[retheisen 10]

And where did you obtain this "projection" from that none of us were aware of? Honestly, no one knows how long it'll take...we'll just have to wait and see. I could not imagine it ever taking more than 7 1/2 months at the latest to get a NOA2 (that is saying with the petition perfectly organized and no REFs or issues).

http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/images/k1tschistory.gif

If you look at the TSC trend and project that out ... over the past four months, NOA2 times have gone from 140 days to 170 days to 190 days to 205 days. I suspect the 140 day averages were likely caused by a batch of expedited Phillipines applications that skewed the number downward and now that those apps have been pushed through we are back to the more normal upward trend from the earlier part of that graph. Will we keep seeing 30 day increases in wait time month over month? Probably not. But I suspect seeing the wait time increase 15 days each month for the next two months (which puts the NOA2 time at 235 days or 7.75 months by the time they get to the October filers) is really not far fetched.

[av8or1 246]

CharlieTanger-

Yeah retheisen is correct regarding projections based on VJ data. I'm glad he answered first, as your post seemed a bit defensive, perhaps emotionally so, who knows, but whatever, I digress WRT that issue. I won't speculate regarding the amount that we can expect to see the general I-129F slowing phenomenon increase, as retheisen was pretty accurate. That said, the VJ data aside, the primary reason for my commentary regarding the likelihood of increased I-129F wait times at the TSC was and is based on information that I have received from two separate sources (who are reputable and whom I trust) who have been in direct contact with the TSC. Those sources have reported back to me that their opinion based on those conversations with the TSC was that the TSC will - in all probability - continue to decrease the speed with which it processes the I-129F. The reason, though not exclusively, was due to the influx of a large number of work-visa-to-AOS petitions coupled with a petition priority shift within the TSC that places the aforementioned work-visa-to-AOS petitions above the I-129F. Furthermore, the I-129F slid further down the proverbial petition priority ladder due to a decision to focus on yet other petitions, which weren't specified when I spoke with those sources. Finally the work-visa-to-AOS petition filings that have taken place during the past year or so is a phenomenon that is expected to repeat during the remainder of this year for certain, and likely beyond.

So that's why I said what I said. It's also the reason I have been fighting as hard as I have been fighting. I'm no longer fighting so that my fiance can be in TEXAS for the birth of our son, due to these delays I am fighting so that I won't have to leave them behind after his birth in Russia + 2 or 3 months, which is the maximum amount of time I can take off of work to be there. Nope, returning home alone would be monumentally difficult, and so I have continued the fight. For what good it will (or won't) do.

And with that I'm gonna stop there. This will be my last commentary on the issue. If you chose not to believe what has been presented to you, then you are free to do so.

ps-Understand that some miracle could happen and things could change within the TSC; I think we're all hoping for that. All I'm saying is that barring that miracle actually happening, this is what I expect to happen. It's not the wait, it's the imbalance in processing times between the CSC and TSC that I fight against. FWIW

Edited February 20, 2015 by av8or1

[rob999 51]

And where did you obtain this "projection" from that none of us were aware of? Honestly, no one knows how long it'll take...we'll just have to wait and see. I could not imagine it ever taking more than 7 1/2 months at the latest to get a NOA2 (that is saying with the petition perfectly organized and no REFs or issues).

I did a bit of my own analysis from Igors list to see if it would tie up with any projections on VJ, see here:

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/536429-texas-service-center-processing-time-2015/page-6#entry7487871

It's not 100% representative as I'm sure there are applications not on VJ but I did remove any expedited ones or CSC confused ones (less than 100 days).

It's definitely not getting quicker that's for sure.

[retheisen 10]

I did a bit of my own analysis from Igors list to see if it would tie up with any projections on VJ, see here:

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/536429-texas-service-center-processing-time-2015/page-6#entry7487871

It's not 100% representative as I'm sure there are applications not on VJ but I did remove any expedited ones or CSC confused ones (less than 100 days).

It's definitely not getting quicker that's for sure.

Nice graph. I did some off the cuff analysis through Igor's custom query tool and found that through June 2014 and July 2014 there were an average of about 50 new 129f applications per week (in TSC). In August 2014 and September 2014 that number falls to about 40 per week (in TSC). If you are seeing processing completion numbers of 20 to 25 per week we would have to assume a 50% abandon rate for those apps entered into VJ during those months if TSC is to just tread water. I suspect we don't really have a 50% abandon rate and TSC is not treading water and is just going the way of Leonardo DiCaprio in Titanic.

Edited February 20, 2015 by retheisen

[rob999 51]

Nice graph. I did some off the cuff analysis through Igor's custom query tool and found that through June 2014 and July 2014 there were an average of about 50 new 129f applications per week (in TSC). In August 2014 and September 2014 that number falls to about 40 per week (in TSC). If you are seeing processing completion numbers of 20 to 25 per week we would have to assume a 50% abandon rate for those apps entered into VJ during those months if TSC is to just tread water. I suspect we don't really have a 50% abandon rate and TSC is not treading water and is just going the way of Leonardo DiCaprio in Titanic.

I think you are about right with 50 a week, on Igor's list there's 200 - 250 per month. I think also some people have given up (or forgotten) about the timeline since it's been so long so don't bother updating. Although getting exact numbers would be impossible all of this definitely shows there's more input than output so it's going to get worse unless they do something. FIngers cross for a transfer like last year.

[raven52 233]

The difference between CSC and TSC, is mind boggling to me! Why does not the USCIS chief of staff, end this un-fair distribution of case loads.

Until some one finds out who can bring the ""Wrath of Fire"" down on them.,.,.,this is only going to get worse!

How do we get equal treatment for all applicants?

Would love to hear Ideas.,.,.,.,.,

God's Speed to all!

[TBoneTX 45,288]

*** Thread moved from K-1 Case Progress subforum to the USCIS Service Centers forum -- topic involves relative processing-times. ***

[rob999 51]

The difference between CSC and TSC, is mind boggling to me! Why does not the USCIS chief of staff, end this un-fair distribution of case loads.

Until some one finds out who can bring the ""Wrath of Fire"" down on them.,.,.,this is only going to get worse!

How do we get equal treatment for all applicants?

Would love to hear Ideas.,.,.,.,.,

God's Speed to all!

There's nothing you can do for your personal case unless you fall under an expedite reason (plenty of info on forums about this), success is marginal but there's no harm to the case in trying. Best to wait until the 5 month mark.

There is also a community push, which I prefer (we already complain about CSC being unfair so why should one be personally expedited unless it has a really serious case is my feeling). You can certainly join our efforts here, probability of success is low and some on this forum have questioned our efforts a waste of time, however for me you don't know unless you try no matter how slim the chance of success and when it's the happiness of my family at stake I will try anything (rant over ).

So I've summed up some links to posts that you can join in our efforts:

Stef & Kristin, file a complaint with DHS - http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/536429-texas-service-center-processing-time-2015/?p=7486293

CIS Ombudsman - http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/525507-november-2014-filers-texas-service-center/?p=7472165

Contact your senator, Kristin and stef have an example here: http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/525507-november-2014-filers-texas-service-center/?p=7442979

Contact USCIS HQ - http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/525507-november-2014-filers-texas-service-center/?p=7433757

Sign the petition on chang.org set up by Kristin - https://www.change.org/p/uscis-distribute-the-current-caseload-between-tsc-csc-vsc-and-nsc

tumblr - http://helptsc.tumblr.com/