January 2015 - TSC Filers

[Eric The Wait 40]

Hello Fellow January, 2015 TSC K1 Filers:

I'm here to check my math. After monitoring the USCIS Official Update for processing I-129F's at the Texas Service Center, I am trying to realistically calculate when we will likely get the VISA.

My fiance lives in Japan, so we're on opposite sides of the planet and only get to see each other 2 or 3 times a year. It's rough, but I'm happy the world is not so large we never met!!! :-)

Anyway, She has a home in Japan to sell and a lot of stuff to do, so I thought I would try to derive a realistic estimate to get through this process. I would welcome any opinions on whether I've got my numbers right.

Our NOA-1 date of January 12, 2015.

The USCIS Official Processing Times website, updated on July 2, 2015, (Yesterday) indicates that TSC has approved people with NOA1 dates of October 8, 2014. (I know that fiances from the Philippines will get through much sooner but I assume the Official Data on the USCIS Website is not referencing them.)

So, being conservative, it looks like it will take at least 9 months for an I-129F to be looked at and approved. But, the last update from June 15, 2015 had the same October 8, 2014 date, so it looks like a few weeks have gone by with nothing happening in Texas for K1 filers. I understand it's summer and people need vacations, etc. The USCIS staff are people too and I am sure they are doing what they can. So, for the summer slow down I'm factoring in another month, making it 10 months for Texas to process an I-129F.

Therefore, for an NOA1 like us with a January 12, 2015 date, I am calculating that we'll get the NOA2 around November 15, 2015. That would be 10 months from our NOA1 date. I calculate another month to get the I-129F from the NVC out to the Tokyo Embassy. So, that means the embassy gets it around December 15, 2015.

The Tokyo Embassy is pretty nice and efficient from what I understand, and I think they can usually schedule the Interview in about 75 days from their receipt of the stuff from NVC. 75 days from December 15, 2015 would bring us to March 1, 2016 for the interview. I guess they issue the VISA in just a few days if the interview is successful. So 10 days to receive the Visa, that would brings is to March 12, 2016, or 14 months from the NOA1.

Therefore, do you agree that January I-129F filers can (assuming 75 days from NOA2 to interview) expect to get their K1 visa's about 14 months after NOA1? If my numbers are messed up, please give your opinion as to where I'm going wrong. (I'm not sure about the 75 days from NOA2 to interview, but it seems like that is a reasonable estimate).

if these numbers are too optimistic I would welcome your opinion. Obviously its tough to see California Service Center people get married 5 months after their NOA1's, but its not their fault for being lucky and I am truly happy for them. But if 14 months from NOA1 to Visa is too optimistic for us TSC filers, my fiance and I would like to know.

(Obviously, this all assumes a smooth application with no proof, evidence or document snags, but I am optimistic we will not have any such thorny issues.)

Thanks very much.

Eric

[bloopygirl 20]

Hey Eric. Your math would be right, except the TSC is processing randomly between October and seemingly February right now. It has become a complete guessing game. You could get your NOA2 tomorrow, or in a few months from now, and there's no way to tell. My NOA1 date was Jan 5th and we got our NOA2 on June 30th. November seems like an extremely conservative estimate, I hope that you get it sooner than that. Click on "immigration timelines" at the top of the page, click Igor's List, and set it to TSC and you will see that other people from January or February have received NOA2 already.

[Eric The Wait 40]

Hi bloopygirl:

Wow, thanks for the feedback. I had no idea the process was so random. I suppose it is best to assume nothing, be ready for anything, and live without otherwise desirable degrees of precision.
I followed the immigration timelines link as you suggested.
Yes, perhaps my calculations yield a longer wait than we will actually experience. Funny how things get relative. Now I would be thrilled if the wait between NOA 1 and 2 is "only" 8 or 9 months.

Thanks again and I'll put the calculator and calendar away!!!!

[Clawren86 5]

Hey Eric.

I think you have to take that processing date of October 8th, 2014 with a grain of salt. If you look above the chart, it says processing dates as of April 30th 2015. Plus, I wrote my senator about all this, and he received a response from them stating that the date on the processing time part of the website is usually 45-60 days behind. Why they do this I do not know. It is a government runned site so I guess that is as a good of a guess as any.

If you look at Visajourneys processing time, it says for the TSC they are processing documents from November 30th. I don't know if this is just based off of user's timelines or something else. So it is pretty much up in the air where things are at. I know many more people in January are getting their NOA2. So all we can do is hope and pray for something good soon.

[Eric The Wait 40]

Hi Clawren86:
Thanks so much for the information. Wow, that would be great if the NOA2's start coming through for Jan 2015's in August or September. I guess there are so many people on different tracks ( I know some countries receive humanitarian based acceleration, etc.) that it's unrealistic to pin processing dates more precisely. Anyway, that is encouraging!!
The wealth of good info on this site for all facets of the process is really impressive.

Thanks again,

Eric

[royl 0]

My receipt date was jan 9, notice for approval on june 25 :-) and now it says my case has been sent to the Department of State for visa processing. Im guessing this is the National Visa Center? in any event I'm very excited, was very discouraged and expecting to wait until August or later for an approval, I woke up in the middle of the night and just decided to check USCIS case status really not expecting anything, imagine my shock when it says your case was approved. I literally started crying then laughing at the same time, fortunately my fiance is 13 hours ahead of me so I was able to call her and share the news immediately. so I know my fiance will need to go to Guangzhou China for her interview, I'm just unsure of how long the process will take at this point. good luck to everyone that has not gotten their approval yet, it looks like these idiots are finally making progress ;-P

[Scott And Vina 2]

Hi just a quick question. My receipt date was 12 January for NOA1. So will we get the email or just the letter from USCIS for NOA2?

[Clawren86 5]

Hi just a quick question. My receipt date was 12 January for NOA1. So will we get the email or just the letter from USCIS for NOA2?

Hi there Scott and Vina. As long as you filed that one form stating you wish to receive an email and/or text message updates, you should receive a message first stating you have been approve. You will then receive the official NOA2 in the mail by the next week. However I would say check your status on the USCIS website as well because there have been some people who didn't receive an email or text message letting them know. If you haven't done so already, I would suggest downloading the USCIS case tracker app for your phone. You can get it for IPhone and Android. It saves a lot of time checking, plus the app will send a notification update when there is an update to your case.

Hope you hear some good news very soon.

[Scott And Vina 2]

Thank you clawren for the reply. Is the website update because i checked it always says case received it never changed the status

[royl 0]

They will update the status on the website first, I filled out the form but did not receive a text or email letting me know that my application was approved, but I did get the form in the mail a few days later

[Scott And Vina 2]

I hope i'll get the good news soon because its been 6 months since my case was received.

[Eric The Wait 40]

Royl: Congrats on the great news!!!!

Our receipt date is January 12...so...who knows.....maybe something will happen soon for us too!!!

Clawren: Great tip on the Case Tracker App for the phone. I will try to get that ASAP.

Okay, here's wishing the best of luck to all the fellow January filers who ended up in TSC. It sounds like things are at least moving through that pipeline!!!!

[CharlieTanger 76]

It looks like progress is being made *knock on wood* ... our time and month is soon approaching!

[Clawren86 5]

Eric: You are welcome. I downloaded it a few a weeks ago and it is a nice app. Still waiting for my NOA2.

Royl: That is great to hear. Congratulations and I hope things continue to go smoothly through the process.

I really do hope some big progress is being made right now. I saw on the Igor's list that a couple of January filers have been approved this week. It is closing on 6 months for me as well. I actually wrote to my senator and congressman, and the USCIS says that they are trying to get things approved within 6 months. I am not getting my hopes up though. Just saying a prayer that all of us can get approved soon so that we can start our lives with the people we love.

[Squamish 10]

I also downloaded the APP to my i-phone. I have also contacted my two Senators and Congressman from Georgia. One of my Senators has just assigned someone to look into my case. I wrote them about the unfairness of the new filers being sent to the CSC and approved in a matter of weeks while the majority of us that have filed months ago still sit at the TSC. I will keep everyone informed if anything transpires.