TSC Anxiety Kicking In

[Cathi 5,771]

Just playing devils advocate, what if Visitor visa is denied? Though I pray everything goes smooth.. Then you would have to reschedule your wedding... I would suggest hope for the best but be prepared for the worst. Smart move is to reschedule... Again my 2 cents on the table.. Wish you good luck..

The OP's fiance is from Netherlands so no visitor visa is needed to enter the US. BUT coming here on the VWP with the intent to marry and adjust status is fraud and will result in a denial and ban with no appeal. The OP has already established intent by posting it here. And don;t think that they don't check social media, because they do.

Edited January 29, 2015 by mimolicious

[jamyestrella 8]

OP... Look at this reply..This is what to expect..I also am already Married and the wait time is the same at TSC for both the I-129 and the I-130.. Change your date to October or November....

Unless your feeling lucky and want to chance it.. There is NO real answer here because NO 2 cases are the same.. This is my second time in 6 years dealing with USCIS.

Im stuck at TSC also.. figure 6-7 months before NOA 2.. do not go by this website timeframe.. It is for entertainement purposes only..and REMEMBER there are only a small percent of people who know about this website...Everybody who files is not here.. The reality is GO BY the USCIS website timeframe for processing NOT the Visa Journey timeframe.. Because that is composed by the people here only ..there are thousands more who do not use Visa Journey.... That is the Reality of things.... Good Luck.....

I

Exactly..People constantly say they are not the same visa and no they are not, but currently they are being processed in pretty much the same amount of time.

[GabsUSA 19]

The OP's fiance is from Netherlands so no visitor visa is needed to enter the US. BUT coming here on the VWP with the intent to marry and adjust status is fraud and will result in a denial and ban with no appeal. The OP has already established intent by posting it here. And don;t think that they don't check social media, because they do.

Not if the intent is to have the wedding in the US and go back to Netherlands. I dont remember seeing anything from the OP that suggests they intend to stay and adjust.

Edited January 29, 2015 by GabsUSA

[acgmph 42]

I hate to burst your bubble, but it is not happening in early May. If people that have filed 3-4 months before you may receive their NOA2s in Late March or April, you are merely fantasizing that something will happen before that time.

You're falling into the same trap as most others - past performance of a service center does not predict future performance.

No bubble here, just trying to keep my optimism, wishing for a May NOA2. And if it doesn't come, there's always plan B.

[acgmph 42]

Not if the intent is to have the wedding in the US and go back to Netherlands. I dont remember seeing anything from the OP that suggests they intend to stay and adjust.

There is no intent to remain in the US afterwards. In, party, and out. Then have the K1 and enter with it, then married, then AOS.

[TabeaK 517]

I applaud your optimism and wish you get your plans fulfilled one way or another. TSC has been slow for a year now though, so we shall see.

[wbeem 568]

You're falling into the same trap as most others - past performance of a service center does not predict future performance.

No bubble here, just trying to keep my optimism, wishing for a May NOA2. And if it doesn't come, there's always plan B.

We were also optimistic for the first few months after we filed. That was 6 months ago and TSC is still processing the month prior to the one in which we filed. At the time we got our NOA1, TSC filers were taking an average of five months from NOA1 to approval. We were told to expect the same. Within a couple of weeks of sending in our petition there was much optimism on this forum for those at TSC when it was announced that a batch of April and May petitions were being sent to CSC to help reduce the backlog and bring things up to speed. It never improved. What was then an average wait time of 150 days is now sitting quite consistently around the 200+ days mark.

Keep up your optimism (not sarcastic - you really do need it to carry you through part of this wait). It's good that you have a Plan B. With a back up plan you will be OK. Personally, having experienced this nightmare wait, void of any communication from USCIS whatsoever, I would be more inclined to treat whatever your back up plan is as your primary plan. I wish you all the best.

[acgmph 42]

I applaud your optimism and wish you get your plans fulfilled one way or another. TSC has been slow for a year now though, so we shall see.

I noticed, based on VJ's data (which is not a representative sample), that it started going above 100 days last year in May, so about 8 months ago. This is corroborated with a big influx of other petitions directed at TSC, and CSC saw none of these other petitions, hence the lower time to process I-129F at CSC. Come January 1st, new quarter, probably internal policy will change in terms of how they distribute new petitions between the service centers, redirecting more of them them to CSC to balance things out, and I expect CSC to see an increase in processing times and TSC to come back to a "normal" 5 months. Now, I hope my case (and seeing we both have close dates) and yours too will benefit from this.

Now, this is pure speculation, but I do intend to have a statistical model in the coming weeks based on petitions directed at CSC and TSC (number of I-129F versus other petitions) and predict how processing time will change. For this I will need some time to mine petition information from USCIS and build a little Excel.

[TabeaK 517]

Hope for the best, expect and plan for the worst. And try and keep positive, I don't always manage to.

And enjoy building your statistical model - just remember, as with all modellin: rubbish in rubbish out.

[TheAndies 50]

I noticed, based on VJ's data (which is not a representative sample), that it started going above 100 days last year in May, so about 8 months ago. This is corroborated with a big influx of other petitions directed at TSC, and CSC saw none of these other petitions, hence the lower time to process I-129F at CSC. Come January 1st, new quarter, probably internal policy will change in terms of how they distribute new petitions between the service centers, redirecting more of them them to CSC to balance things out, and I expect CSC to see an increase in processing times and TSC to come back to a "normal" 5 months. Now, I hope my case (and seeing we both have close dates) and yours too will benefit from this.

Now, this is pure speculation, but I do intend to have a statistical model in the coming weeks based on petitions directed at CSC and TSC (number of I-129F versus other petitions) and predict how processing time will change. For this I will need some time to mine petition information from USCIS and build a little Excel.

In regards to building a statistical model, another user from our June group actually did that. I believe his username is Josh1987. You can check out the June TSC thread here and go back a few months and see the model he used.

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/500743-june-2014-filers-texas-service-center/

It was quite accurate. And might save you the time of building your own if you reach out to him to see how he did it.

I think one thing that you really need to keep in mind is that TSC/CSC are government funded - and despite what you may hope or think, they are probably severely understaffed and more than likely under-funded. Also, USCIS (maybe not TSC/CSC specifically, but the department of homeland security, which USCIS obviously falls under) will soon be processing the applications of illegal immigrants that are now eligible for legal status, per the President's executive order announced back in November. They're going to have to be processed somewhere - and despite the fact that they aren't i-129f/i-130s, they still use the same agencies/departments/staff.

So sadly, those also might be split up among all the centers and different agencies that deal with processing all of our fiance and spousal visas, so there might be a chance that the processing times get even slower. Of course, this is all speculation on my part and I could be completely wrong - but it's something that's definitely been in the back of my mind since it was announced.

I do have to say, despite all the warnings from very experienced users who have been in your situation, you seem to have your mind already made up with what your plan of action will be. Really hoping it works out for you as planned!

[usmsbow 802]

Not if the intent is to have the wedding in the US and go back to Netherlands. I dont remember seeing anything from the OP that suggests they intend to stay and adjust.

It was his plan c, which he quickly (and wisely) dumped.

[GabsUSA 19]

It was his plan c, which he quickly (and wisely) dumped.

Ah that's right, I just figured they were only thinking those were the options and more than enough people chimed in discouraging it.

[Marco&Bettina 502]

Come January 1st, new quarter, probably internal policy will change in terms of how they distribute new petitions between the service centers, redirecting more of them them to CSC to balance things out, and I expect CSC to see an increase in processing times and TSC to come back to a "normal" 5 months.

You should not state things that sounds like facts that are merely speculative statements with 0 supporting evidence. I understand you want to keep your hopes up, but statements like this can mislead many others coming onto VJ looking for answers. I know you used the word "probably", but there is 0 evidence anywhere that leads you to believe this will actually happen. Just hope. Don't get me wrong, I hope too, but...

Edited January 29, 2015 by Marco&Bettina

[acgmph 42]

In regards to building a statistical model, another user from our June group actually did that. I believe his username is Josh1987. You can check out the June TSC thread here and go back a few months and see the model he used.

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/500743-june-2014-filers-texas-service-center/

It was quite accurate. And might save you the time of building your own if you reach out to him to see how he did it.

I think one thing that you really need to keep in mind is that TSC/CSC are government funded - and despite what you may hope or think, they are probably severely understaffed and more than likely under-funded. Also, USCIS (maybe not TSC/CSC specifically, but the department of homeland security, which USCIS obviously falls under) will soon be processing the applications of illegal immigrants that are now eligible for legal status, per the President's executive order announced back in November. They're going to have to be processed somewhere - and despite the fact that they aren't i-129f/i-130s, they still use the same agencies/departments/staff.

So sadly, those also might be split up among all the centers and different agencies that deal with processing all of our fiance and spousal visas, so there might be a chance that the processing times get even slower. Of course, this is all speculation on my part and I could be completely wrong - but it's something that's definitely been in the back of my mind since it was announced.

I do have to say, despite all the warnings from very experienced users who have been in your situation, you seem to have your mind already made up with what your plan of action will be. Really hoping it works out for you as planned!

Thanks for pointing me in Josh's direction! Wrote him a message, hope he shares his script - would save a lot of time.

You should not state things that sounds like facts that are merely speculative statements with 0 supporting evidence. I understand you want to keep your hopes up, but statements like this can mislead many others coming onto VJ looking for answers. I know you used the word "probably", but there is 0 evidence anywhere that leads you to believe this will actually happen. Just hope. Don't get me wrong, I hope too, but...

I did say "Now, this is pure speculation"

[usmsbow 802]

I think one thing that you really need to keep in mind is that TSC/CSC are government funded - and despite what you may hope or think, they are probably severely understaffed and more than likely under-funded. Also, USCIS (maybe not TSC/CSC specifically, but the department of homeland security, which USCIS obviously falls under) will soon be processing the applications of illegal immigrants that are now eligible for legal status, per the President's executive order announced back in November. They're going to have to be processed somewhere - and despite the fact that they aren't i-129f/i-130s, they still use the same agencies/departments/staff.

No. They're not government funded. They're funded by user fees, aka customers, aka us. USCIS is about 95% funded by user fees. It has a minimal amount of taxpayer money, and I'm guessing most of that is for HQ stuff like the Director's social fund or something along those lines.

And those applications from illegal immigrants will also have fees that will pay for the additional workforce needed. The USCIS is so flush with funds that it already has made a lease for a new center to specifically process those applications, and they're looking to hire 1,000 government workers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/26/us/politics/little-noticed-in-immigration-overhaul-a-government-hiring-rush.html?_r=0

So if they're understaffed, then it is their fault. They have a team strictly devoted to figuring out the fees we all pay. It has the authority to raise those fees in order to be fully staffed and functional.

I'm not saying it is entirely USCIS' fault. Congress gave them that authority, and we the voters put up with it. Politicians love user fees since it raises revenue without raising taxes on everyone. Unfortunately it also makes USCIS less accountable than other (taxpayer funded) agencies.

Edited January 29, 2015 by usmsbow