October 2014 Filers - Texas Service Center

[Wooderz 314]

I'm sure they're like little kids who have a lot of food on their plate that they won't eat but don't want to give it up because it's "theirs".

Lol I work with a couple people like that. I remember when I looked at the uscis stats thinking the difference wasn't that big, definitely not as high of a percentage as you provided for vj members. I suspect that's because of all the people on vj who incorrectly put TSC as their service center.

[SantyAndAllie 155]

Lol I work with a couple people like that. I remember when I looked at the uscis stats thinking the difference wasn't that big, definitely not as high of a percentage as you provided for vj members. I suspect that's because of all the people on vj who incorrectly put TSC as their service center.

Lol! Yeah, I don't think the difference is AS pronounced as on VJ (I hate that people don't update timelines!!! Like putting a lockbox when they're at TSC or CSC), but I think that there still are more applications at Texas. Somehow I feel like they have more states that they cover... but that could be not true. I saw the list once of states that go to each one, and theyre probably the same. Maybe I just want to give an excuse as to why they're so slow. hahaha

[Wooderz 314]

Lol! Yeah, I don't think the difference is AS pronounced as on VJ (I hate that people don't update timelines!!! Like putting a lockbox when they're at TSC or CSC), but I think that there still are more applications at Texas. Somehow I feel like they have more states that they cover... but that could be not true. I saw the list once of states that go to each one, and theyre probably the same. Maybe I just want to give an excuse as to why they're so slow. hahaha

I wish there was some obvious reason for the processing time difference. At least then we would have some ammunition to request workload transfers. But this is the government and we will never know what really goes on at the service centers as far as how they allocate workloads and priorities.

I'm only a few weeks into the waiting and I'm already disheartened. I really feel for all those from June/July still waiting. It's not right.

[JDWright 30]

I'm only a few weeks into the waiting and I'm already disheartened. I really feel for all those from June/July still waiting. It's not right.

^ yup

[Lee 23 5]

Many October filers already received NOA2; I am very happy for them, and jealous at the same time. As for me, I travel to Thailand for a religious marriage ceremony. For the legal wedding in the US, I am prepared to wait several months or longer if the application is somehow denied and we need to reapply. I have learned as much as I can about processing times, and can share what I know.

I learned that process each visa is unique. It depends upon the country (as mentioned before, Philippians is very quick); it depends upon the applicant (with respect to speed of processing background checks with Homeland Security); it depends upon the application (as errors or discrepancies can cause delays).

I am a scientist and I have analyzed the data from the USCIS and Visa forum website. The Visa journey data has been most helpful. (Don’t even bother calling USCIS until processing date has passed; currently 6 months – there is nothing they will do.)

The data I present will suggest how long it will take to receive an NOA2 by analyzing cases over the past 7 months that have received NOA2. I removed cases for Philippians and cases initial sent to California. If you have not received your NOA2, good news for you, most NOA2s are sent within two months.

For the rest of us, half of the cases are processing within 3 months; the other half are processed within 6 months.

This data shows that most cases were processed at two months or at four to five months. Fewer cases were processed very quickly, very long, or at the three month time. It may be that all cases at the Texas center go through initial processing, while other cases have a second processing step. But it is hard to say from this data. Another possibility is that some administrative change occurred.

In August, the about 25% of all unfinished cases were transferred from Texas to California.

This has recently reduce NOA2 processing time at the Texas service center from about 180 days. If the trend continues processing will soon be less than 100 days.

Edited November 23, 2014 by leeportnoff

[SantyAndAllie 155]

Many October filers already received NOA2; I am very happy for them, and jealous at the same time. As for me, I travel to Thailand for a religious marriage ceremony. For the legal wedding in the US, I am prepared to wait several months or longer if the application is somehow denied and we need to reapply. I have learned as much as I can about processing times, and can share what I know.

I learned that process each visa is unique. It depends upon the country (as mentioned before, Philippians is very quick); it depends upon the applicant (with respect to speed of processing background checks with Homeland Security); it depends upon the application (as errors or discrepancies can cause delays).

I am a scientist and I have analyzed the data from the USCIS and Visa forum website. The Visa journey data has been most helpful. (Don’t even bother calling USCIS until processing date has passed; currently 6 months – there is nothing they will do.)

The data I present will suggest how long it will take to receive an NOA2 by analyzing cases over the past 7 months that have received NOA2. I removed cases for Philippians and cases initial sent to California. If you have not received your NOA2, good news for you, most NOA2s are sent within two months.

For the rest of us, half of the cases are processing within 3 months; the other half are processed within 6 months.

NOA1to2.jpg

This data shows that most cases were processed at two months or at four to five months. Fewer cases were processed very quickly, very long, or at the three month time. It may be that all cases at the Texas center go through initial processing, while other cases have a second processing step. But it is hard to say from this data. Another possibility is that some administrative change occurred.

In August, the about 25% of all unfinished cases were transferred from Texas to California.

This has recently reduce NOA2 processing time at the Texas service center from about 180 days. If the trend continues processing will soon be less than 100 days.

129fcomparison.gif

From what others have posted, I have learned this:

CSC is processing more recent (Oct/Nov) applications. Most people there have received NOA2s unless they got RFE or got delayed.

TSC is processing applications from June/July and also expediting Philippines applications. Most recent filers (like me, an Oct filer) are looking at January or February for NOA2.

Some are transferred; some aren't. But that's really all it is. Yes, some do have RFE, are denied, or get delayed somehow. BUT, in general, that is basically what it is. TSC is backed up. Even with all the research, it's so unpredictable with them. They could transfer at any point but who knows if they will. They aren't touching more recent applications right now because they still are in the summer ones, and it's most likely going to take 5 months, as it stated. The average for the last year for TSC was 5 months. So pretty much everyone there waited 5 months to get their NOA2. That's what we're looking at right now.

Also- aren't there WAY more K1 cases than just 60 from April to Oct? lol. It says at least a couple hundred on here.

Let's just hope that, as you said, the trend continues down and decreases to 100 days for processing!

Edited November 23, 2014 by lovecometruex

[SantyAndAllie 155]

http://www.visajourney.com/content/times

Apparently according to VJ, these are the current processing dates for K-1 based on data:

CSC: October 6th

TSC: August 9th

Again, I've seen many July/August filers that have not yet received their NOA2. So I think they're still working on July, too! Obviously the data does not include every single person, as probably not every filer is on VJ.

[Lee 23 5]

The chart represents 366 filers in the April to Oct time range whom have received already received NOA2, whom were initially processed at the Texas center and are not from Philippians.

After waiting 15 days (4%) had received NOA2.

At 30 days 21% had received NOA2.

52% received NOA2 within 75 days.

Perhaps data is easier to understand as a table.

Days NOA2 Processed

15 5%

30 22%

45 33%

60 46%

75 52%

90 55%

105 61%

120 73%

135 84%

150 94%

165 97%

180 100%

For me (NOA1 on Oct 16th), in January 55% will have already received NOA2. By February, 75% will have already received NOA2.

Unfortunately, about 1/4 of the applicants shall wait for 5 months or a little longer. By 6 months all cases had moved on to the NVC.

Edited November 23, 2014 by Lee 23

[SantyAndAllie 155]

The chart represents 366 filers in the April to Oct time range whom have received already received NOA2, whom were initially processed at the Texas center and are not from Philippians.

After waiting 15 days (4%) had received NOA2.

At 30 days 21% had received NOA2.

52% received NOA2 within 75 days.

Perhaps data is easier to understand as a table.

Days NOA2 Processed

15 5%

30 22%

45 33%

60 46%

75 52%

90 55%

105 61%

120 73%

135 84%

150 94%

165 97%

180 100%

For me (NOA1 on Oct 16th), in January 55% will have already received NOA2. By February, 75% will have already received NOA2.

Unfortunately, about 1/4 of the applicants shall wait for 5 months or a little longer. By 6 months all cases had moved on to the NVC.

That's very interesting data, and now I get it.

But-- here's my question... where are these people who got it within 15 days who weren't from Philippines (though it's a very small amount)? How can we be sure they weren't expedited for an emergency or military need? So that can skew the data a bit. The government claims to go in order with files, as we see that they still are processing July applications. Also, they're back logged now, and that could've happened around the April-May point, which may be where you get the data for 15 days. I'd need more info on that before I could believe that we'd all get our NOA2s that quick! Regardless, I still think it will take at LEAST 4 months, as your data suggests, for most people to get NOA2s. USCIS really has to catch up! Hopefully it won't take much longer than that, though.

Thank you for this data, though!! It makes me happy to know at hopefully we'll at least get our NOA2s in January or February! That makes this more bearable!! Seriously- I can't stop looking at this. It makes me happy that we have SOME kind of data that can give us hope, lololol.

Edited November 23, 2014 by lovecometruex

[SantyAndAllie 155]

Guys, I just put that data on a sticky note on my desktop . BUT right underneath it is another sticky note that says:

"Surrender to what is.
Let go of what was.
Have faith in what will be."

Just think it's a good reminder for us all. It's helped me in not being SO depressed that my fiance probably won't be in the US for Christmas & for civil ceremony on the day we met in Jan. Though we let go of our plans, we have faith in what will be. <3 We're wishing everyone the best through a hard holiday season without loved ones!

[Lee 23 5]

Correct, the dataset has those issues you mention, and also we are only able to look at data for people who have entered their NOA1 and NOA2 data on VJ. On top of that, administrative decisions can ship thousands of files to CSC or stop processing altogether. And productivity at the centers change through time. Fortunately we are at a productive time right now. Let's hope that keeps up during the holidays.

About government processing the data in order. I think this is somewhat true in that, lets say a file takes 10 steps to process. However, not all files need those 10 steps. Perhaps there is one step that takes a long time, but is not required for all applicants. Should the service center stop and wait for the results before continuing on another applications? No, at each step the oldest file moves to the top of the cue. The problem is that some applications have to go through more steps. And some steps take longer for certain applicants.

The way I see it is that each month, we all have about a 20% chance of getting a NOA2 that month. Then in March, those who have not already gotten their visa will be processed.

[Ralph and Patrick 2]

Our petition was routed from Texas Lockbox to Texas Service Center in Mesquite. We got our NOA1 on October 6, NOA2 on November 10, and received a text/email the our petition was sent to NVC on November 21.

[curiosa 5]

The chart represents 366 filers in the April to Oct time range whom have received already received NOA2, whom were initially processed at the Texas center and are not from Philippians.

After waiting 15 days (4%) had received NOA2.

At 30 days 21% had received NOA2.

52% received NOA2 within 75 days.

Perhaps data is easier to understand as a table.

Days NOA2 Processed

15 5%

30 22%

45 33%

60 46%

75 52%

90 55%

105 61%

120 73%

135 84%

150 94%

165 97%

180 100%

For me (NOA1 on Oct 16th), in January 55% will have already received NOA2. By February, 75% will have already received NOA2.

Unfortunately, about 1/4 of the applicants shall wait for 5 months or a little longer. By 6 months all cases had moved on to the NVC.

Thanks for sharing this information with us! Pretty cool!

[ForgottenNotes 12]

Really hoping to get word of a NOA2 before Christmas. I just booked a flight to visit the Misses 3 weeks in March. Prayers up!

[SantyAndAllie 155]

Really hoping to get word of a NOA2 before Christmas. I just booked a flight to visit the Misses 3 weeks in March. Prayers up!

Again, your country of origin is Philippines, which is going VERY quickly right now. The latest you'll get your NOA2 is likely to be in February, if that. But most Philippines Oct filers (from what I've seen! not all have!!) have already gotten their NOA2. Steer clear of making too many official plans.... you may have wasted money on a plane ticket. Fortunately for you I think many appointments are going on right now at their consulate, so it may take a while to get an appointment, but it's very likely that she'll already have her visa before March (if there are no red flags or RFE for the application, of course).

My point- it's very unpredictable. So making plans in advance can be hard.

Edited November 24, 2014 by lovecometruex