October 2014 Filers - Texas Service Center

[Wooderz 314]

Ok, here's my comparison and conclusions from the data. I'll be interested to see what you guys think about the raw data and the conclusions I drew from it. Let me know if you see something wrong or that I might not have considered. I did this so we could all see whats been going on over a period of time. Together we can figure it out if we pool our brain power!

The first page is the National data, so from all service centers. The second page is the data from CSC and the third page is TSC. I started off just comparing August, but realized that wasn't really accurate given the transfers then. So I took it back one month and also provided the numbers for July. You'll see in my conclusion at the end where I provide my thoughts on the trends seen in the charts.

[Lee 23 5]

Yes, that makes sense.

But, both Texas and California receive about 2,000 cases each per month (Texas a few more; California a few less).

The Texas increase in pending petitions is because they completed few cases from Jan 2014 to July 2014; allowing these pending cases to build up.

Then we see in Aug 2014, Texas sent thousands of cases to California.

The good news is that VJ shows that California has cleared these cases and is back down to 35 day processing... Ready for another transfer. However, we can see from VJ data that NVC has been slowing each month (probably due to the increase in recent NOA2s).

FYI. looking at the last 50 most recent NOA2s (any service center and any transfer) on VJ.

We can see current processing is focused on 90 day processing 2/3 of the cases. But taking 6 months for the remaining 1/3.

64% processed within 90 days

32% processing between 5.5 and 6.5 months

Only 4% were processed between 3 and 5.5 months.

[Wooderz 314]

Interesting, Lee. That makes perfect sense given CSC and the Phillipines all being processed within 90 days. The rest of us are stuck waiting out the long haul.

Now that the CSC--->NVC backlog has been brought up, I'm going to do a little more research in the transfer thread to see how those folks have progressed. See if I can get a sense of whether they truly came out ahead being transferred or whether the NVC backlog (maybe caused by the extra workload the transfers caused??) has diminished some of the benefits of the transfer.

As others have said, we may end up being almost just as well off not being transferred. I'm not so keen on my file getting lost on its way to NVC.

[SantyAndAllie 155]

Wow, you go, girl! Look at you with that data! Thank you! I have to check it out now, but I PMed Josh about what he thought about transfers. He said this:

"

based on my data for June, we are over a month of delays which is the highest ever for TSC and they have transferred less than 2% of the applications.

with wait times reducing the expectation of transfer should be completely off the table. i would not expect it at all.

"

I asked him if he thought, then, that waiting times were going to go own significantly or not, since he said "because they're reducing". So we'll see what he comes up with! I'm very interested to see how the next month or so plays out.

Edit: I looked at the data you gave, April. Seems like it makes sense. I wish it was a fairer system. But hopefully at this point they'll step it up and plow through these next few months AT LEAST to get back to their 5 month goal. I'm going to keep an eye on Igor's list and see how fast they're getting thru VJ users & the next month's filers (July).

Edited December 20, 2014 by lovecometruex

[curiosa 5]

My guy is here in the States visiting. They gave him permission to stay for 6 months. So tempted to have him stay for that duration.

[av8or1 246]

"

based on my data for June, we are over a month of delays which is the highest ever for TSC and they have transferred less than 2% of the applications.

with wait times reducing the expectation of transfer should be completely off the table. i would not expect it at all.

"

Wait times at TSC reducing? I'd like to see how Josh arrived at that. TSC seems to be getting slower if anything to me. Rumor has it that they're gonna pick up the pace in January. If that doesn't happen, I don't see our wait decreasing at all.

TBD

[yuna628 9,676]

Two reasons why they might pick up: one being the most obvious -- all holidays are finally over and they can get their butts back to work. Two: being that in order to make numbers look a bit better, they like any other company, try to push things through a little.

But another holiday without my loved one... like many of us. I hope you all are having the best holiday you can, under the circumstances.

[Lee 23 5]

VJ data shows that after TSC cases transferred to CSC, Texas times improved, while California times slowed. This may suggest that a case that starts in Texas is credited to Texas even if it was transferred to CSC.

My belief is that the only reason why Texas times improved was because cases were transferred to California. The Texas processing just takes much longer (perhaps because more steps are involved). And that cases are transferred to CSC for final approval and to forward on to NVC.

Now that CSC is processing at historic lows, there are two options. Close down the service center, or transfer more cases from Texas.

Because Texas is slow, I expect to see more cases transferred very soon. The effect of the last transfer has completed.

Edited December 25, 2014 by Lee 23

[av8or1 246]

Two reasons why they might pick up: one being the most obvious -- all holidays are finally over and they can get their butts back to work. Two: being that in order to make numbers look a bit better, they like any other company, try to push things through a little.

But another holiday without my loved one... like many of us. I hope you all are having the best holiday you can, under the circumstances.

Not sure if that last sentence was directed at me or not, but thanks just the same. I'm actually standing in the airport right now waiting for my flight to Moscow. I'll see my fiancé during the holidays, so I'm grateful for that.

My heartburn regarding the processing times discrepancy, beyond fairness and such, lies more along the lines that we are expecting our son in the spring. We'd both prefer that he was born here, but because of the processing time issue that appears not very probable. By contrast, if our petition was in the CSC, we'd be doing our interview about now, if not already done with it. That would put her here in plenty of time for the projected big day. Instead I'm researching CRBA and making plans along those lines. Bleech.

But it is what it is. Trying to stay positive and remember my blessings, to include my future wife and our son.

Prayers for all, good holidays.

Here's hoping things speed up for us all. Or a transfer. Lol

Edited December 25, 2014 by av8or1

[Wooderz 314]

Av8or1, that sounds awful. I can't even imagine how difficult it is for you both to be apart during your fiancées pregnancy and to face that your child probably won't be born in the US. Will you be able to go to Russia for the birth?

My day has not gone very well. Daniel was supposed to fly here today, but he's home with what he thinks is the flu. Of course, he won't go to the dr though so who knows. I think it's more likely a bad stomach bug. His flight should be landing as I type this, but he's not on it. He changed his flight to tomorrow so fingers crossed he feels better and can fly. We had so much planned I'd be devastated if he couldn't come. We were going to check out the wedding venue (it's a friend's house on the bay), go to a Texans game and go to Vegas for nye and one of my friend's wedding. Plus I was really looking forward to a week off work.

I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas. I did until about 1am this morning when Daniel told me he was suddenly sick.

[JDWright 30]

Merry belated Christmas guys, I'm here with my guy. I posted my entry experience in the "Yes, you can visit" thread. I've been here a week now. Heh, now I'm here I've been checking VJ less. Think it's a mix of less time, more happy and less nervousness waiting on NoA2, that won't come until February probably.

[av8or1 246]

Av8or1, that sounds awful. I can't even imagine how difficult it is for you both to be apart during your fiancées pregnancy and to face that your child probably won't be born in the US. Will you be able to go to Russia for the birth?

My day has not gone very well. Daniel was supposed to fly here today, but he's home with what he thinks is the flu. Of course, he won't go to the dr though so who knows. I think it's more likely a bad stomach bug. His flight should be landing as I type this, but he's not on it. He changed his flight to tomorrow so fingers crossed he feels better and can fly. We had so much planned I'd be devastated if he couldn't come. We were going to check out the wedding venue (it's a friend's house on the bay), go to a Texans game and go to Vegas for nye and one of my friend's wedding. Plus I was really looking forward to a week off work.

I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas. I did until about 1am this morning when Daniel told me he was suddenly sick.

Thanks April. Yes sure, I wouldn't miss the birth no matter where it happens. Still holding out hope in will be in TEXAS, but that's TBD. Did Daniel make it over?

[SantyAndAllie 155]

This is so heartbreaking to hear, guys! I'm so sorry! I'm really grateful I was able to come to Ecuador. It was a long day of flights and airports, but I made it and am so happy to be able to be here. BUT literally getting depressed every night when I think about how short of a time I'm here and then how much longer we'll have to wait to see each other again. I have to force myself not to think about it. I just want this process to go faster for all of us.

I really want my fiance to come visit the States while waiting on the visa, but from what I've heard from Border Control, our consulate, the airport he'd be coming into, people on here, our lawyers, etc, it's just such a risk for us because he doesn't have pay stubs for proof of work or proof of a house or anything here. I also know it depends on the airport, too, and not many have experiences posted about coming into JFK (other than Canadians passing thru, but they typically go thru driving or whatever, and not thru the airport). Our closest airport is Newark, but that airport is AWFUL with immigration. Wouldnt recommend anyone to come in through there. JFK was a much better experience, and I know he'd have a better chance here.

To those who have been doing it for the holidays- what was your experience? JDWright, I have to look up that thread again! Because if my fiance's visa doesn't come in time for my sister's wedding in April, we are 100% taking the risk then, because he's a groomsmen! Ugh. I just want so badly to take the risk before then, though. We don't want to wait that long to see each other again (and we want to plan our wedding!), so we'd like to maybe think about it for February, but I also am afraid of the risk spending the money and/or getting disappointed if they decide to deport him back to Ecuador. I hate that it's such a risk- especially considering that he doesn't have sufficient "ties" to his country (meaning no proof of owning a house or employment or anything), so if they want to deport him, I know they'll have no problems doing so.

I hope everyone has a good rest of their holidays, even if you're without your significant other. It's the last one that we'll be waiting like this! Next year we'll all be happily married and together... without any of this visa stuff (marriage stuff to worry about, yes, but not waiting on TSC, lol!)

PS. April- let us know what happens with Daniel. I hope he feels better and is able to come! Let us know what the experience is when he comes in!

PPS- (Sorry just reading& responding all these now, loll) So sorry to hear about this, av8or1. I hope that something happens quickly for you guys so that you'll be able to be together ASAP. I can't imagine being pregnant and without my fiance! So sorry that you guys are going through this. It's just not fair for any of us.

Edited December 27, 2014 by lovecometruex

[Wooderz 314]

Thanks April. Yes sure, I wouldn't miss the birth no matter where it happens. Still holding out hope in will be in TEXAS, but that's TBD. Did Daniel make it over?

Daniel made it a few hours ago. He's still feeling pretty rough so hopefully he'll be on the road to recovery soon and we can enjoy some of our time together. Until then nurse April I shall be! It's a taste of the married life I guess!

[SantyAndAllie 155]

Daniel made it a few hours ago. He's still feeling pretty rough so hopefully he'll be on the road to recovery soon and we can enjoy some of our time together. Until then nurse April I shall be! It's a taste of the married life I guess!

Yay!!! Aw, Nurse April. too cute. How was his experience? Which airport? Did they ask him anything or mention the visa?