October 2014 Filers - Texas Service Center

[Wooderz 314]

Could you post that link?

Edit: I love that you post that you're human. Can never be too sure, you know lol!

Correct.. because He's OVER the government.. bahahaha. I mean I personally think that God gives us (and the government, ahem) personal choice in a lot of things, BUT I think it's possible for him to put His hand in things... Needless to say, fiance & I pray everyday about it!

Hopefully you mean the link to Josh's posts in the June thread. He's posting every few days, but here's the page with his most recent analysis. You can go back and read more from him if you'd like. http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/500743-june-2014-filers-texas-service-center/page-96

I'm not much of a religious or spiritual person but I do think we're put in tough situations because we can handle them. Our relationships are strong enough, even though the distance, time zones, and the frustration of this process are difficult on a daily basis. Even though the road we're taking is the "scenic route" rather than the highway that is CSC, the destination is the same and that's the commitment we've made to our fiancés (fiancées) and they've made to us. Plus the long journey just might make us stronger in the end.

[SantyAndAllie 155]

Hopefully you mean the link to Josh's posts in the June thread. He's posting every few days, but here's the page with his most recent analysis. You can go back and read more from him if you'd like. http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/500743-june-2014-filers-texas-service-center/page-96

I'm not much of a religious or spiritual person but I do think we're put in tough situations because we can handle them. Our relationships are strong enough, even though the distance, time zones, and the frustration of this process are difficult on a daily basis. Even though the road we're taking is the "scenic route" rather than the highway that is CSC, the destination is the same and that's the commitment we've made to our fiancés (fiancées) and they've made to us. Plus the long journey just might make us stronger in the end.

So true, April. The thing that gets me through it! I know it's all worth it, and after this- no more separation. Of course we'll still be dealing with THIS stuff for a while, but we'll be doing it together.. in person together, I mean

Ps Thank you! Yes, I wanted to see the data you were mentioning.

Edited December 18, 2014 by lovecometruex

[SantyAndAllie 155]

That guy's stuff is really helpful!

I was browsing through the monthly filers & acceptances and whatnot and just looking at the numbers. (http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/monthly_filers.php?form=1&visa=1&scenter=3&option=3&sortby=2 if you havent!), and it looks like the amount of petitions (from VJ users, of course) skyrocketed over the summer and then has been decreasing in numbers since. I don't mean approvals; I mean the amount of people filing. OBVIOUSLY this is only counting VJ. Who knows how many actual petitions there are at USCIS right now, since not everyone is a VJ user! So there could actually be hundreds more that aren't accounted for, but it could still be accurate that the amount of people applying has been slowing down.

What I've counted on VJ is that there are only a few more June filers waiting for NOA2. Most people have gotten them, but there are a few with a NOA1 date of 6/25ish or later that haven't gotten one yet.

So on VJ (obviously not counting the ones already accepted & hoping that people who UPDATE their timelines, of course!), there are about..

147 filers from July;

123 filers from August;

114 filers from Sept.;

&103 Oct filers total......

still waiting for their NOA2s.

Obviously data can be skewed from people not updating their timelines, but if they got a NOA2 and didnt update that, that would be in our favor, because it means even less people left to process. AND in reality there could be like another 200 filers per month that arent on VJ, so this could be totally off. I dont know!

So- From VJ data, there were over 200 people who sent in applications from January, then it decreased in number until June. TSC processing time started increasing in June, which is why, as we all know, they eventually transferred so many cases in August! In June VJ says it sky rocketed to 200 filers and then after each month was a little less amount of people from here filing. They have almost finally finished June and are going to be headed into July soon- probably January, we hope!

So if VJ data for the non VJ filers is anything like the real data (again, who knows? there could be hundreds of filers missing here that could skew all of that), this could mean that we're looking at less filers for USCIS to go through and a LITTLE less waiting time than previous filers.

From that guy Josh's post, it looks like 107 people (this could mean non-VJ users, too; I'm not sure... I dont know if he gets data from HERE or some USCIS database, but I think his may be non-VJ) were approved from Nov 1st to Dec 1st, meaning, like I mentioned earlier, it took typically about a month to finish one month's worth of filing (ex: like if they finished all of May in the month of September), and that was when there were a TON of applications, and the wait time increased a lot. THAT meaning that once they start processing July filers, it should take around 3 more months (or less!) to get to Oct filers, which would be consistent with TSC and their typical "5 month processing". If they start July ASAP, we could be in the 5 month processing mark instead of the 6 month mark that everyone seems to be having right now (all June filers! poor guys). Aka.. NOA2 in March or.. who knows?! maybe it'll speed up or transfer...

I hope that all made sense I wish I could see how many filers there really are that aren't on VJ, but oh well. If anyone figures out how to do that, let me know. hahaha.

Hopefully we're almost there.. a few more months of this! Hope everyone has a merry Christmas & new year! Thankfully I'll be spending mine in Ecuador with the fiance starting Monday!

Edited December 18, 2014 by lovecometruex

[Wooderz 314]

Josh is pulling his data straight from USCIS using src#s and a combination of various data analytics tools. So his numbers represent all filers, not just those on VJ. In the July TSC thread (yes I am stalking all the months before us to see how it's going and what they are doing to try to get some action on their petitions) someone mentioned that uscis receives 30,000 I-129fs each year, so what we see on VJ is only a small portion of all filers. That being said, I see no reason why VJ isn't a representative sample of all filings, so the trends we see here hopefully are actually true and not deceptive (minus the bad timelines people)

I think the 30,000 number is true. Before uscis updated their site they used to have a link to a chart and graph showing all open, processed and awaiting action (RFE'ed I guess) petitions. I don't know where that data went on the new site but 30,000 fits in line with what I saw there the one time I looked at it before the new site.

I hope they can continue the month for month trend but I'm not hopeful because the majority of April and May filers were transferred. Uscis went month for month on months with way less petitions than a regular month ? lets see how they move through June and July and maybe we'll get a good idea of how much longer to expect this to take.

Daniel is flying in on the 26th so we will celebrate Christmas one day late. Then we'll have New Years, some wedding planning and his birthday together!

[Lee 23 5]

Here is the USCIS chart you are talking about.

https://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=6&office=2&charttype=1

It shows National data and by Service Center.

It is perhaps updated Quarterly, so maybe we will see an update in January.

At one time I estimated that about 4% of all k1 filers are posting on VJ.

I agree that it should be a mostly representative sample.

As I look at it now, If we are not California, not Philippians, and have not been processed in the first 90 days, It will take 5 or 6 months. However, since California has cleared the transferred cases and is back down to it's fast NOA2 processing; 35 days (see http://www.visajourney.com/content/k1historical )

It seems likely that there will be another transfer, as Texas is falling behind again.

Edited December 18, 2014 by Lee 23

[Lee 23 5]

Also, the USCIS chart shows between 3,500 and 5,500 cases received each month. Looks like most cases start in spring and fewest in winter. Looks to me like about 50,000 cases applied for per year. However, perhaps not all these cases are accepted.

[SantyAndAllie 155]

Still seems to be representative of the data josh is giving that they typically have been going monthly. Here's to hoping they'll transfer! Anyone know any data on that? Trends on transferring like how many til they say it's too much?

[Mark&Obaa 3]

Hi fellow Octobers, my noa1 was 21 October... getting used to the waiting

[Wooderz 314]

Here is the USCIS chart you are talking about.

https://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=6&office=2&charttype=1

It shows National data and by Service Center.

It is perhaps updated Quarterly, so maybe we will see an update in January.

At one time I estimated that about 4% of all k1 filers are posting on VJ.

I agree that it should be a mostly representative sample.

As I look at it now, If we are not California, not Philippians, and have not been processed in the first 90 days, It will take 5 or 6 months. However, since California has cleared the transferred cases and is back down to it's fast NOA2 processing; 35 days (see http://www.visajourney.com/content/k1historical )

It seems likely that there will be another transfer, as Texas is falling behind again.

Yes, that's what I've been looking for. Too bad it's only up to date as of August. I did a comparison of the data during my lunch hour today, but it's on my work computer and I got busy and didn't send it to my personal email. I'll post it tomorrow for you guys to chime in with your thoughts, analysis, whether you think I'm right or wrong...

I hope there will be a transfer soon. When they did the transfer in August they transferred April and May. If they follow the same protocol and do a transfer in January or February, we may just be lucky enough to be transferred.

[Wooderz 314]

Still seems to be representative of the data josh is giving that they typically have been going monthly. Here's to hoping they'll transfer! Anyone know any data on that? Trends on transferring like how many til they say it's too much?

Who knows! All I can tell is that when they transferred in August, it roughly evened out the workload, but given how much more efficient CSC is, they sped through the transfers and we are still here at 6 months wait for TSC. GAH, think of how bad it would be if they hadn't transferred!

My gut feeling is that it probably isn't easy to get a transfer done. It's easier to do nothing than to do something. If we all complain to our representatives, maybe we can get some traction. I also wonder how political it is to get USCIS to agree to transfer like that. I'm sure CSC isn't jumping at the opportunity to help us all out!

[yuna628 9,676]

I'm a little nervous about a transfer actually. Yes there seems to be very fast approvals at CSC... but it seems another big hurdle is them actually getting it to the NVC.. and then I've seen some of them have some problems getting there in the first place. It's probably just my paranoia of wanting everything to go right kicking in.

[ForgottenNotes 12]

I'm a little nervous about a transfer actually. Yes there seems to be very fast approvals at CSC... but it seems another big hurdle is them actually getting it to the NVC.. and then I've seen some of them have some problems getting there in the first place. It's probably just my paranoia of wanting everything to go right kicking in.

Omg i was just reading the the NOA2 -->NVC thread. It seems like CSC is really doing a number on those guys who have their NOA2 and it seems NVC has asked CSC to stop sending until they get caught up. Some people waiting at USCIS for 2 months after their NOA 2 ouch! One case was sent to the beneficiary embassy without first going to NVC!

[yuna628 9,676]

Omg i was just reading the the NOA2 -->NVC thread. It seems like CSC is really doing a number on those guys who have their NOA2 and it seems NVC has asked CSC to stop sending until they get caught up. Some people waiting at USCIS for 2 months after their NOA 2 ouch! One case was sent to the beneficiary embassy without first going to NVC!

Yeah, I don't think I've seen too many cases of TSC mucking up or delaying the NVC process, and it seems they handle it in a prompt manner. CSC does make me nervous there, so I think I'm comfortable waiting it out so long as it's handled properly!

[Wooderz 314]

Yeah, I don't think I've seen too many cases of TSC mucking up or delaying the NVC process, and it seems they handle it in a prompt manner. CSC does make me nervous there, so I think I'm comfortable waiting it out so long as it's handled properly!

Good points yall. I've seen that thread, too. Wondering if CSC is moving so fast nvc can't keep up or if CSC is being told to hang onto approvals to try to push through the TSC approvals, which were filed months earlier than the CSC petitions??? I offer the second option because from that thread it seemed like CSC wasn't sending the petitions on rather than nvc losing them or holding them without processing.

Either way, I'd be lying if I said part of me didn't think this was a small piece of justice and fairness for us tsc'ers.

[Lee 23 5]

If Texas and California were running at full capacity, together they could do 7,000 cases each month. I think the problem is waiting for background checks and backup at NVC.