understanding lottery visa monthly cut off

[right123 0]

I was just checking November cutoff numbers for Asia and I noticed the following:

October : 2500 cases

November 2,950

December 3,200

Based on how the cutoff every month, I don't think they would reach 18,000 by upcoming September.

Is my conclusion correct ?

or could it jump in January all the way to 5000 all of sudden ?

[Ian H. 207]

I'm not sure, but people have children and spouses, and I think that's where most of the visas get used up.

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

I was just checking November cutoff numbers for Asia and I noticed the following:

October : 2500 cases

November 2,950

December 3,200

Based on how the cutoff every month, I don't think they would reach 18,000 by upcoming September.

Is my conclusion correct ?

or could it jump in January all the way to 5000 all of sudden ?

I'm not sure, but people have children and spouses, and I think that's where most of the visas get used up.

The case numbers are per family, not per person.

Right123, it's a bit complicated because firstly as above one case number can be more than one person, and secondly not all case numbers 'exist'- some were disqualified initially and others have not had people follow up. So for example case numbers 1-2500 may only represent say 1000 valid cases.

And yes there are occasionally jumps in the numbers.

All that said, 18000 is a high number for Asia and judging by last year there is unfortunately a good chance that visas will be exhausted before getting there. If you haven't yet registered for DV2016, I'd suggest doing that now before the registration period closes.

Edited November 2, 2014 by SusieQQQ

[Ian H. 207]

Sorry about that. Although I was referring to the actual visa numbers. Are there 50,000 visas available for everyone including derivatives, or are they just per family, meaning that more than 50,000 people are eligible to receive DV visas? I thought the available visas were used up by the derivative family members like they are in family based categories.

The case numbers are per family, not per person.

Edited November 2, 2014 by Ian H.

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

Sorry about that. Although I was referring to the actual visa numbers. Are there 50,000 visas available for everyone including derivatives, or are they just per family, meaning that more than 50,000 people are eligible to receive DV visas? I thought the available visas were used up by the derivative family members like they are in family based categories.

50000 visas total including derivatives. But you can't tell from the case number or the visa bulletin how many visas are being issued, per case number or in total. So for example case number AS1234 may have one visa or four associated with it, no way of telling from the bulletin or the number. I think over the lottery selectees as a whole the average ratio is something like one derivative per applicant (less than most people would intuitively think), but a whole bunch of case numbers are not valid so again just looking at case number cutoffs doesn't give much info.