NVC Filers - October 2014

[TheBigO 18]

UPDATE ON EQUATION:

Using your data Saylin and the bits I have just got from the posts since 20 October, I now get a linear regression of y = 0.7502x + 107.01, where y = Case Complete (as a numbered day of the year) and x = IV Scan Date (given as numbered day of the year). The Rsquare value is 0.7081 on this which means between the IV Scan Date and Case Complete there is a 70.81% correlation. Now, using 95% confidence level, we can say the margin of error is 5.81 days (this is worked out after figuring out the mean, standard deviation etc.).

Following me so far??? hehehehe

Using this new info, I can say for my IV Scan Date of 24 September, my CC should now come between 28/29 October and 9/10 November.

Re-worked mine, I am going to predict an exact date of 5th November! Putting it out there!!! :-/

[TheBigO 18]

315 days, which is November 12 +- ~6 days

It will be cool to see how your prediction holds!

Re-worked yours, I am predicting 15/16th November! Let me know if I am correct! ;-/

[mtsid 2]

Hello Thebig0

My iv scan date is 17 september and aos checlist scan date is 24 sep can u plz calculate when i may get cc plz..

[Kolewenoik31 57]

Okay people! I have finally got a mathematical solution which will help you predict with 60%-63% confidence a rough date, + or - 6.36 days, for when you will get a Case Complete based on your IV scan date. I have used Saylin's data to work this out. I hope it helps you. I did a similar calculation when I was waiting for approval from USCIS and was spot on with my NOA2!

1. Convert your IV scan date into a day number of the year (eg: 24 July 2014 = 267th day)

2. Multiply the day by 0.6998 (eg: 267 x 0.6998 = 186.85)

3. Add 116.19 to the result from Step 2 (eg: 186.85 + 116.19 = 303.04)

4. Now add 6.36 to your result from Step 3 (eg: 6.36 + 303.04 = 309.40)

5. Now subtract 6.36 from your result at Step 3 (eg: 303.04 - 6.36 = 296.68)

6. Convert the result from Step 4 back into a date (eg: 309.40 is 5th/6th November 2014)

7. Convert the result from Step 5 back into a date (eg 296.68 is 23rd/24th October 2014)

8. The date range for your Case Complete is these two sets of dates at Step 6 and 7.

Maths is awesome for helping to work these things out. At the least, it may give some people a bit of hope in knowing roughly when to expect CC to happen. I think it is fun working out this type of stuff!

:-)

Ok this is funny! Now I spoke to a friend this week and NVC told her that they are not using scan dates anymore to approve. They are reviewing them and giving CC in batches of mail so it will be interesting if this is true or not. Hers took 45 days only because she received a checklist otherwise it would have been 30 days. And they are combining both packets not separately anymore.

Edited October 25, 2014 by Kolewenoik31

[TheBigO 18]

Ok this is funny! Now I spoke to a friend this week and NVC told her that they are not using scan dates anymore to approve. They are reviewing them and giving CC in batches of mail so it will be interesting if this is true or not. Hers took 45 days only because she received a checklist otherwise it would have been 30 days. And they are combining both packets not separately anymore.

.

Edited October 25, 2014 by TheBigO

[TheBigO 18]

Hello Thebig0

My iv scan date is 17 september and aos checlist scan date is 24 sep can u plz calculate when i may get cc plzTh

The math does not take into account any checklists. Sorry.

[juandelacruz 1]

Thebigo,

I do not know my scan date but my employer sent aos docs or iv docs or both on sept15 (texas time). Not sure what my employer sent because i am on eb3 and my employer is exempt from aos fee as per ceac website so not sure if they are exempted from aos docs as well. But i received email from nvc last sept19 that they received documents on sept18 (nh time probably).

Will your equation work with mine? Thanks!

[Nata NV 4]

CR2 - CONDITIONAL CHILD OF U.S. CITIZEN

IV+AOS Package scaned 25 Aug 2014

22 Sep 2014 letter from NVC: it will be at least 60 days from the date we received your mail before we complete the review of your documents.

21 Oct 2014 call to NVC :case under review, will be reviewed up to 25 Oct.

22 Oct 2014

1) CHECKLIST: Please submit a copy of the biographic data page of this person's passport, including the expiration date of the passport. The passport must be valid.

2) Call to NVC:

- Daughter hasn't her passport. She is 10 years old. Information about her entered in mother's passport. This page has only first and last daughter's names and the expiration date. What we must do?

- Give us a copy that page from mother's passport and do not give first page.

23 Oct 2014 answer for checklist was sent. We put both page of mother's passport although they asked only one.

24 Oct 2014

- 11:57 a.m., NVC physically recieved IV checklist answer.

- 3:55 p.m letter from NVC: We received the Affidavit of Support fee you paid for case number xxx. Please visit our

website http://nvc.state.gov and complete steps three through six:

Step 3: Submit visa application form

Step 4: Collect financial documents

Step 5: Collect supporting documents

Step 6: Submit documents to the NVC

- 5:10 p.m. AOS status checked. It changed from "PAY NOW" to "PAID". (Really it was not paid. Mother's AOS fee was paid 05 June 2014).

I have read three instructions about NVC process, thread about mistakes, and thread "NVC Filers" for two month. And did not see information for our mistake. It hurts me that we could not avoid checklist however.

Thank all VJ members for the information you share there.

Natalia, beneficiary's mother.

[Chelsy01 2]

Re-worked mine, I am going to predict an exact date of 5th November! Putting it out there!!! :-/

Scan date of Oct 20th using your first equation I got Nov 10th and Nov 23rd.....

Your last Equation I got lost on with the Rsquare....

[jackie521 1]

Ok this is funny! Now I spoke to a friend this week and NVC told her that they are not using scan dates anymore to approve. They are reviewing them and giving CC in batches of mail so it will be interesting if this is true or not. Hers took 45 days only because she received a checklist otherwise it would have been 30 days. And they are combining both packets not separately anymore.

I totally agree with you because Almost everyone I have read here they have been approved 2 months after the AOS date. My AOS date is 9.3.14.

My friend that went thru this same process got her checklist with her interview.

[Saylin 1,605]

It will hold true only on the current data. Every time we get a new CC the data needs to be updated to get a more accurate reflection of the mathematical relationship. So it will always be changing, but at least it gives people something to work with. if not that, then at least it is a bit of fun whilst we all wait for this process to be over :-)

Well, I usually get new requests for adds/updates on my spreadsheet every few hours (although not all are case completes). Now that I've mostly settled into my new apartment, it's my hope to keep the spreadsheet updated daily. So, keep an eye out for new data Although, that means changing the equation almost daily then

But I hear ya about it being fun while waiting on the process. Although I didn't do equations, while I was at NVC, I was tracking fellow Canadians and when they got case completes and then when they got their interview dates scheduled and when the interview date was. And then once I got my interview date assigned, I then started tracking when Canadians were getting their visas back after interviews. Let's just say I really, really like spreadsheets

[AdnanS 82]

I hope you have sent in the checklist response already, since they have started reviewing packages together now; they will most likely review the checklist with your IV package. So there might be a good news sooner than you expected!

Inshallah waiting for good news soon.

I sent in my response same day I got the checklist and had phone talk with them, so I wasted no time and did next day delivery. Hopefully everything is correct and all.

[AdnanS 82]

I did the math few pages back based of my IV Scan date of September 12th, 2014.

Old Formula:

October 14/15 - October 27/28

New Formula:

October 19/20 - October 31

[brijakash 7]

I did the math few pages back based of my IV Scan date of September 12th, 2014.

Old Formula:

October 14/15 - October 27/28

New Formula:

October 19/20 - October 31

Can you count for me plz i dont understand thay math.because mine is everything reviewed only thing is left checklist that i sent and scan date is oct 21.Aos and iv package is already reviewed and got checklist and sent checklist

[guy.james 1]

Hello Thebig0

My iv scan date is 17 september and aos checlist scan date is 24 sep can u plz calculate when i may get cc plz..

Hey... We both have almost exact dates let's hope our CC will be soon..... keep in touch