NVC Filers - October 2014

[TeddyB 3]

Whoops. you are right!

I meant September 24th is 267th day.

Sorry. The maths still works though :-)

The only reason I looked into it is because the range seems short, 29-42 days. That could be because you've used older data but I think most cases are going over that now. From what I've seen, they are near scan date of Aug 27th at the moment, 58 days. Monday is my 30th day so i'm hoping you are more correct than I am.

[TeddyB 3]

Whoops. you are right!

I meant September 24th is 267th day.

Sorry. The maths still works though :-)

I meant monday is my 42nd day. 30th business day. I was keeping track in both ways since they were going with 30 business days and not 60 days when my case first got to the NVC in May. Edited October 25, 2014 by TeddyB

[TheBigO 18]

Well, I know math, I want to know how you got to that formula

And I just updated my spreadsheet earlier this evening, so IIRC, there's a couple CC's even after the 20th.

UPDATE ON EQUATION:

Using your data Saylin and the bits I have just got from the posts since 20 October, I now get a linear regression of y = 0.7502x + 107.01, where y = Case Complete (as a numbered day of the year) and x = IV Scan Date (given as numbered day of the year). The Rsquare value is 0.7081 on this which means between the IV Scan Date and Case Complete there is a 70.81% correlation. Now, using 95% confidence level, we can say the margin of error is 5.81 days (this is worked out after figuring out the mean, standard deviation etc.).

Following me so far??? hehehehe

Using this new info, I can say for my IV Scan Date of 24 September, my CC should now come between 28/29 October and 9/10 November.

Edited October 25, 2014 by TheBigO

[TheBigO 18]

I meant monday is my 42nd day. 30th business day. I was keeping track in both ways since they were going with 30 business days and not 60 days when my case first got to the NVC in May.

You need to calculate the day so it is a number out of 265 days in the year. eg: january 1st is day 1 and december 31st is day 365.

Teddy B, give me your IV Scan date and I will figure it out for you

[Saylin 1,605]

UPDATE ON EQUATION:

Using your data Saylin and the bits I have just got from the posts since 20 October, I now get a linear regression of y = 0.7502x + 107.01, where y = Case Complete (as a numbered day of the year) and x = IV Scan Date (given as numbered day of the year). The Rsquare value is 0.7081 on this which means between the IV Scan Date and Case Complete there is a 70.81% correlation. Now, using 95% confidence level, we can say the margin of error is 5.81 days (this is worked out after figuring out the mean, standard deviation etc.).

Following me so far??? hehehehe

Using this new info, I can say for my IV Scan Date of 24 September, my CC should now come between 28/29 October and 9/10 November.

I followed you up until the Rsquare part

Nevertheless, it'll be interesting to see if that equation holds true for future case completes! If so, that'd be amazing!

[BatmanFlow 481]

Okay people! I have finally got a mathematical solution which will help you predict with 60%-63% confidence a rough date, + or - 6.36 days, for when you will get a Case Complete based on your IV scan date. I have used Saylin's data to work this out. I hope it helps you. I did a similar calculation when I was waiting for approval from USCIS and was spot on with my NOA2!

1. Convert your IV scan date into a day number of the year (eg: 24 July 2014 = 267th day)

2. Multiply the day by 0.6998 (eg: 267 x 0.6998 = 186.85)

3. Add 116.19 to the result from Step 2 (eg: 186.85 + 116.19 = 303.04)

4. Now add 6.36 to your result from Step 3 (eg: 6.36 + 303.04 = 309.40)

5. Now subtract 6.36 from your result at Step 3 (eg: 303.04 - 6.36 = 296.68)

6. Convert the result from Step 4 back into a date (eg: 309.40 is 5th/6th November 2014)

7. Convert the result from Step 5 back into a date (eg 296.68 is 23rd/24th October 2014)

8. The date range for your Case Complete is these two sets of dates at Step 6 and 7.

Maths is awesome for helping to work these things out. At the least, it may give some people a bit of hope in knowing roughly when to expect CC to happen. I think it is fun working out this type of stuff!

:-)

Just tried it with my scan date (october 6th), I got November 1 to November 15.

These are very generous dates lol. For my sake, i hope your math is spot on lolll

Edited October 25, 2014 by BatmanFlow

[TheBigO 18]

Further calculation reveals NVC is processing documents between 38.5 and 50.5 days after a scan.

[TheBigO 18]

I followed you up until the Rsquare part

Nevertheless, it'll be interesting to see if that equation holds true for future case completes! If so, that'd be amazing!

It will hold true only on the current data. Every time we get a new CC the data needs to be updated to get a more accurate reflection of the mathematical relationship. So it will always be changing, but at least it gives people something to work with. if not that, then at least it is a bit of fun whilst we all wait for this process to be over :-)

[TeddyB 3]

You need to calculate the day so it is a number out of 265 days in the year. eg: january 1st is day 1 and december 31st is day 365.

Teddy B, give me your IV Scan date and I will figure it out for you

September 15th or the 258th day of the year.

[TheBigO 18]

Just tried it with my scan date, I got November 1 to November 15.

These are very generous dates lol. For my sake, i hope your math is spot on lolll

Try the new numbers y = 0.7502x + 107.01 ....plus and minus 5.81 days.

[TheBigO 18]

September 15th or the 258th day of the year.

22/23 October through to 2/3 November. Have seen a few CC with 15 September in the past week so perhaps you are getting close.

Edited October 25, 2014 by TheBigO

[TeddyB 3]

In the mean time. Has anyone else occurred 3 separate "computer glitches" going through the process?

My first 2 have combined for 10 bonus weeks of wait time. The third just happened so still waiting on that. I know ####### happens but 3 seems excessive.

[TheBigO 18]

Just tried it with my scan date (october 6th), I got November 1 to November 15.

These are very generous dates lol. For my sake, i hope your math is spot on lolll

For you I get 6th through to the 18th.

Just did a little bit of extra work and I think you will be between 13th and 25th.

[BatmanFlow 481]

Try the new numbers y = 0.7502x + 107.01 ....plus and minus 5.81 days.

315 days, which is November 12 +- ~6 days

It will be cool to see how your prediction holds!

[BatmanFlow 481]

For you I get 6th through to the 18th.

Just did a little bit of extra work and I think you will be between 13th and 25th.

thanks!

I like the first set of dates better lol